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The non-agricultural upset market is "furious"! Expectations of interest rate cuts have completely ignited, and a bigger change is brewing!

Wonderful introduction:

Don't learn to be sad in the years of youth, what xmserving.comes and goes cannot withstand the passing time. What I promise you may not be the end of the world. Do you remember that the ice blue that has not been asleep in the night is like the romance swallowed by purple jasmine, but the road is far away and people have not returned, where can the love be lost?

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The "fried" of the non-agricultural upset market! Expectations of interest rate cuts have xmserving.completely exploded, and a bigger change is brewing!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (September 5), at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the highly anticipated non-farm employment report in August. The data is far inferior to market expectations, igniting the market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. The report shows that the number of non-farm employment increased by only 22,000 in August, far lower than the market expectations of 75,000. The data in June was downgraded to -13,000, and the data in July was upgraded to 79,000, and the overall employment growth fell into a "stall". The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, further highlighting the weakness of the labor market.

After the data was released, the US dollar index and US bond yields fell rapidly, while safe-haven assets such as gold and silver and US stock futures rose sharply, and market risk appetite rebounded. Institutional and retail investors' sentiment has quickly turned, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has become the dominant topic. This article will analyze the far-reaching significance of this data from three aspects: instant market response, expected impact of interest rate cuts and future trend prospects.

Instant market reaction: the US dollar is under pressure, risky assets soar

After the non-agricultural data was released, the financial market responded quickly, the US dollar index fell sharply to 97.57 in the short term, and the intraday decline expanded to 0.73%, hitting a four-day low. The yields of US Treasury were also under pressure, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 6.7 basis points to 4.109%, the 2-year yield fell 6.2 basis points to 3.529%, and the 2/10-year yield curve steepened to 60.4 basis points, reflecting the market's strong expectations for short-term interest rate cuts. At the same time, both safe-haven assets and risky assets have seen significant increases. Spot gold breaks through the $3580/ounce mark, setting a record high of 3582.77 USD/oz, an increase of 1.02% intraday; spot silver broke through $41/oz, at $41.09/oz, an increase of 1.10%. US stock futures were also boosted, with the pre-pending gains of the Nasdaq 100 futures widening, and the S&P 500 futures narrowing their declines, indicating that investors' risk appetite has rebounded.

In the foreign exchange market, non-US currencies usher in a "carnival". The euro quickly rose to 1.1749 against the US dollar, setting a new high since July 28, with an intraday increase of 0.68%. The technical side broke through the daily "head and shoulders bottom" neckline, indicating that the upward action energy is enhanced. Brent crude oil futures performed poorly, falling 1.01% intraday to $66.12 per barrel, reflecting that market concerns about the economic slowdown partially offset the rising momentum of risky assets.

The changes are particularly obvious xmserving.compared to market sentiment before the data is released. Previously, institutions and retail investors generally expected that 75,000 new jobs in non-agricultural investors would be created in August, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Market sentiment was cautious and wait-and-see. The US dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range of 97.5-98.5, and institutions tended to control leverage to avoid volatility risks. After the data was released, market sentiment quickly turned to bearish on the dollar and bullish on risky assets, and the heat of discussion surged, reflecting investors' strong reaction to weak data.

Expectations for interest rate cuts have heated up: Fed policy path is adjusted again

The weaker than expected of non-farm data in August directly strengthened the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Before the data was released, the market had priced the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September to nearly 100%. Some institutions such as Goldman Sachs expect "just right" data (adding 60,000 to 85,000 yuan) to support a moderate rise in risk assets. However, the actual data only increased by 22,000, and the number of employed people fell to a negative value in June, marking the first monthly negative growth since 2020, xmserving.completely breaking the market's optimistic assumption of "soft landing". Traders quickly adjusted their bets, and some retail investors even called for an "emergency rate cut" of 50 basis points or 75 basis points, reflecting the intensified market concerns about the economic slowdown.

Economists point out that low labor market activity is the main reason for the current weakness. Ernie Tedeschi, an economist at Yale University's Budget Laboratory, said that the current market's "low liquidity" characteristics are obvious, with both recruitment and dismissal activities decreasing, and new jobs mainly rely on net growth of newly established xmserving.companies. This part of the data is highly dependent on model estimates and is susceptible to corrections. The upcoming revision of the annual employment benchmark, which will be released next week, is expected to lower the employment level by as much as 800,000 in 12 months, further confirming the slowdown in the labor market. In addition, the average weekly working hours unexpectedly dropped to 34.2 hours, which was also interpreted by analysts as a signal that employers' demand has weakened.

Federal Chairman Powell had previously hinted at a possible rate cut at the meeting on September 16-17, emphasizing that labor market risks have risen, but the threat of inflation still exists. After the non-agricultural data was released, the market generally believed that interest rate cuts were a foregone conclusion, with the probability of a 25-bp rate cut being close to 100%, and the call for a 50-bp rate cut is gradually heating up, so I shouted out directly"Rate cuts are xmserving.coming." However, some institutions remind that inflationary pressure has not yet xmserving.completely subsided, and the price uncertainty triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric may limit the Fed's pace of easing. If the CPI data unexpectedly rises next week, the rate cut may be limited.

Changes in market sentiment: institutions are cautious, and retail investors' sentiment differentiation

Institutional and retail investors' responses show obvious emotional differentiation. Institutional investors interpret the data relatively calmly. Well-known institutional analysts such as Chris Anstey pointed out that the decline in average weekly hours highlights weak labor demand. xmserving.combined with the reduction in job openings and slowing wage growth, the labor market has entered a "stagnant period." Institutions generally believe that weak data provides short-term support for risky assets, but the risk of long-term economic slowdown cannot be ignored. Some institutions xmserving.commented that the "stall" of non-agricultural data may be attributed to technical failures, but it reflects the structural weakness of the labor market on a deeper level. Coupled with the uncertainty brought about by Trump's tariff remarks, the market's risk aversion sentiment has cooled down.

Retail investors' sentiment is more intense and differentiated. Some retail investors bluntly said that "the Federal Reserve acted too late again" and questioned whether it had entered a recession. Some retail investors also expressed shock at the data and their emotions were inclined to panic. Regardless of whether investors saw the weak data, they quickly turned to bullish risky assets, shouting "buy, buy, buy" and "a 50-basis-point interest rate cut is xmserving.coming", reflecting the high speculative sentiment. Some investors are also concerned about inflationary pressure, pointing out that prices of xmserving.commodities such as coffee and beef have risen, and questioning the actual help of interest rate cuts to ordinary consumers. xmserving.compared with the cautious wait-and-see before the data was released, retail investor sentiment quickly turned to polarization after the data was released, including concerns about the recession and expectations for interest rate cuts to boost the market.

Future trend outlook: Short-term volatility intensifies, long-term risks coexist

Looking forward, the exceeding expectations of non-agricultural data has injected new momentum into the short-term market. The US dollar index may continue to be under pressure, testing the 97.5 support level, if it falls below or further falls below 97.0; gold and silver still have room for upside as expectations of interest rate cuts heat up, and gold may challenge the $3,600/ounce mark. US stocks are supported by a rebound in risk appetite in the short term, but we need to be wary of the secondary impact of next week's CPI data and annual employment revisions. If the CPI shows that inflationary pressure is eased, the expectation of interest rate cuts will be further consolidated, which will benefit risky assets; on the contrary, if inflation exceeds expectations, the market may reprice the interest rate cut, and the yields of the US dollar and US Treasury may rebound.

In the long run, the continued slowdown in the labor market may indicate an increased downward pressure on the economy. Institutions expect employment revision data to confirm a sharp drop in employment levels next week. Coupled with the uncertainty brought about by Trump's tariff remarks, market volatility may further increase. The Fed needs to seek a balance between the dual goals of inflation and employment, and the uncertainty of the path to rate cuts will continue to dominate market sentiment. Investors should pay close attention to next week's CPI data and the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, flexibly adjust their positions, and beware of data-driven short-term violent fluctuations.

In general, unexpected fatigue in August's non-farm dataSoft xmserving.completely reversed market sentiment, and expectation of interest rate cuts became the dominant force. The decline in US dollar and US Treasury yields provide short-term support for gold and US stock futures, but the potential impact of inflationary pressure and employment revision data cannot be ignored. The response of institutions and retail investors shows that the market's sensitivity to Fed policies has reached a new high, and short-term speculative opportunities coexist with long-term uncertainty. Traders need to remain highly vigilant and respond prudently to the upcoming data and policy signals.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The non-agricultural upset market is "furious"! The expectation of interest rate cuts has xmserving.completely exploded, and a bigger change is brewing!" is carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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