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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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market news
ADP is fading, initially asking for higher demands, if non-farms are softer, what will happen to the US dollar?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: ADP is fading, please go higher at the beginning, if non-agricultural market is softer, what will happen to the US dollar?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (September 5), the US dollar index was xmserving.compiled around the 98-line weakness. Since August 22 (the day Jackson Hall's speech), the index has continued to tug-of-war within the "policy observation range" of 97.55-98.85.
Fundamentals:
This round of market drives still xmserving.comes from the qualitative change in the labor market rather than the quantitative change in inflation. As the Fed chairman hinted at Jackson Hall, risk assessments are turning to the jobs: July JOLTS released on Wednesday showed that the number of jobless persons exceeded job openings for the first time since April 2021, and even more disturbingly, job openings in the healthcare industry fell to a five-year low, which has contributed about 40% of new jobs over the past three years. At the same time, labor supply has contracted due to slowing immigration, and demand is also cooling, making the unemployment rate better portrayal of supply and demand balance than the new non-agricultural increase - the former has both supply and demand information, while the latter only captures demand.
Today, the market is keeping a close eye on non-agricultural market in August: the median Bloomberg survey is +75K; under the guidance of the previous "soft signal", some institutions gave lower "whisper values". Unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. Thursday's leading data continued to be weak: ADP only increased by 54K (expected 65K, previous value of 106K), and initial unemployment claims rose to 237K (expected 230K, previous value of 229K). Interest rate pricing almost confirmed the rate cut in September: CMEFedWatch showed that at the meeting from September 16 to 17, the probability of a 25bp reduction was about 99.4%, and there is at least one more time this year. It should be noted that next Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a benchmark revision of the business survey, which may re-paint the employment curve over the past year; in addition, CPI may rise slightly next week, but the marketIt has taken the lead in writing the logic of "growth cooling> inflation stickiness" into prices. In terms of overseas long-term interest rates, Germany and France's 30-year yields rebounded from Wednesday's low, but remained at a relatively high level; the decline in US interest rates eased the impact of the bond market earlier this week, and the loosening of maturity spreads suppressed the passive support of the US dollar.
Technical aspect:
Based on the hourly chart, the technical anchor points of the current trend are clearer: Bollinger middle rail 98.1964, upper rail 98.4635, and lower rail 97.9292 constitute a "dynamic channel". After the price fell back from 98.4359, it was hindered from the middle rail many times and operated below the middle rail. The bandwidth gradually expanded downward, indicating that the downward trend is still dominant. The latest quotation is close to 98. If it effectively falls below 97.7770, the probability of the lower edge of the test range is 97.55 rising. Upward, only by recovering and stabilizing 98.1964 can we expect to backtest 98.4635, further challenging 98.6330 and the upper edge of the range of 98.85.
On the momentum, MACD shows that DIFF-0.0685 and DEA-0.0470 are both under the zero axis, and the short-selling advantage has not changed, but the negative value of histogram-0.0428 shows marginal convergence xmserving.compared with the previous period, and there is room for a technical pullback; RSI (14) is around 39.1123, and is still in the weak zone below 50, but it rebounds from the edge of oversold and cooperates with the lower rail support, indicating that the momentum of the short-term downward trend is attenuated.
Prevention of market sentiment:
The downward movement of interest rate expectations and the narrative of employment "soft landing turns weak", have led the US dollar bulls to adopt the strategy of reducing leverage and reducing positions when highs. The US dollar bulls/bearish ratio tends to be equilibrium and short, and sentiment tends to "be cautious shorting the US dollar and reduce positions before data." The caliber of Fed officials during the week was also dovish: the New York Fed stated that "gradual rate cuts", and the Chicago Fed emphasized that September is "still a disagreement meeting" and pointed out that the labor market deteriorated. This "policy can be verified - data first" framework has prompted the interest rate side to become the dominant variable rather than inflation. For equity markets and credit spreads, moderately weak non-agricultural sectors are interpreted as risk-favorable friendly; but if the data is "too weak", a secondary blow to growth expectations will push up volatility. Although the US dollar may decline, the defense sentiment across assets will rise simultaneously.
Future Outlook:
Short Path: If non-agricultural ≤75K and the unemployment rate is ≥4.3%, the US dollar index may fall below 97.7770, further testing 97.55; if an hourly pullback does not break the lower track, it will form a "outside-leading walk" that follows the trend.
Bolster path: If non-agricultural economy is significantly stronger than 75K and the unemployment rate does not rise, the US dollar may cross 98.1964 and fail to break back. At that time, it will launch an impact on 98.4635. After the breakthrough, it will look up to 98.6330 and 98.85; but if there is a lack of volume (the kinetic energy indicator is not confirmed), you need to be vigilant about false breakthroughs and declines to test the middle track again.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: ADP is fading, please go higher at the beginning, if non-agricultural market is softer, what will happen to the US dollar?"All content is carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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