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There is a possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September, but only two or three committee members are most likely to vote for it

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: There is a possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September after non-farming, but most likely only two or three xmserving.committee members will vote for it." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Another weak employment report has made calls for the Federal Reserve to implement a substantial interest rate cut. Consumers are already worried about the decline in purchasing power due to tariffs, and now they are increasingly concerned about employment security. The "doves" in the Federal Reserve (those advocated loose monetary policy) will further increase the call for action.

The August employment report performed worse than expected. The number of non-agricultural employment increased by only 22,000, far below the general expectation of 75,000. Although the employment data in the past two months has been revised up by 29,000 people, even if this part of the correction is included, the overall situation is still slightly lower than expected. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% as expected, but the underemployment rate (the proportion of people who hope to increase their working hours) rose faster from 7.9% to 8.1%; the average weekly working hours fell to 34.2 hours; the year-on-year wage growth rate also slowed from 3.9% to 3.7% - it can be seen that all indicators in the employment market are showing a weak trend.

From the perspective of segments, the private education and medical industry added 46,000 new jobs, the leisure and hospitality industry added 28,000 new jobs, and the retail industry added 11,000 new jobs, while employment in other industries was either flat or declined. In the past two and a half years, nearly 90% of new jobs have xmserving.come from only three industries: government departments, private health and education industries, and leisure and hospitality industries. Excluding these three industries, non-farm employment has declined for four consecutive months, indicating that industries that are usually seen as engines of U.S. economic growth are facing difficulties.

People believe that unemployment is inevitable

The current data still conforms to the view that "the employment market is cooling down, but it has not collapsed yet." However, the concerns of workers have beenVery obvious. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is one of the key indicators that reflect this trend, which contains a survey question about unemployment. Currently, 62% of Americans believe that the unemployment rate will rise in the next 12 months, while only 13% believe that the unemployment rate will decline. This means that the net proportion of people with expected rising unemployment rates reached 49%. In the past 50 years, only four worse findings have occurred than the current ones. People often observe and feel changes in the job market before official data are reflected - they will know whether their xmserving.company has frozen recruitment or whether there are sporadic people being fired. This phenomenon shows that the actual risk of an absolute decline in U.S. employment is rising later this year.

The US economy is dominated by consumption expenditure (consumption accounts for 70% of GDP). Consumers are already anxious because tariffs push up prices and shrinking purchasing power. If they are xmserving.combined with concerns about employment, the downside risks faced by economic activities will be further increased. Even if some Fed members are not xmserving.completely relieved about the inflation situation, this situation is enough to prove that the Fed needs to take action as soon as possible. ING expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October and December, and cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in early 2026.

There is a possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September

Some investors are questioning whether the Fed will cut interest rate by 50 basis points in September. The number of investors holding this view is likely to increase next Tuesday (after the data covers the preliminary benchmark corrections for the 12-month non-farm employment data until March 2025). The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) based on data from state unemployment insurance tax records shows that the actual number of employed people in the nine months from March to December 2024 was 857,000 less than the figures released in the non-farm employment report, which means that the non-farm employment data may be revised downwardly on average every month. It is expected that the gap between the non-agricultural employment data in the first quarter of 2025 and the data released by QCEW during the same period will narrow, but even if it is revised downward by 750,000 people, it will significantly change the current overall narrative of the employment market.

In addition, the content of the Federal Reserve Beige Book (i.e., the Regional Economic Conditions Survey Report) released earlier this week is not optimistic, and it was this report that became the fuse last year, prompting the Federal Reserve to launch a cycle of interest rate cuts, reaching 50 basis points for the first time. However, given the current conservative xmserving.composition within the Fed and the uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on inflation, it may be difficult for the xmserving.committee members who support a 50 basis point interest rate cut to form a majority, but two or three members are expected to vote for the plan.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: There is a possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September after non-farm, but most likely only two or three members voted to support it". It was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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There is a possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September, but only two or three committee members are most likely to vote for it

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

There is a possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September, but only two or three committee members are most likely to vote for it

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason