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News

market analysis

A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market

Wonderful introduction:

Optimism is the line of egrets that go straight up to the sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails on the side of the sunken boat, optimism is the luxuriant grass blowing in the wind at the head of Parrot Island, optimism is the little bits of falling red that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Official Website]: A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On April 13 (Monday), the global foreign exchange market fell into violent shocks at the opening. The core drivers were the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and the sharp increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Coupled with the opening of the IMF spring meeting, the heavy release of US PPI and China's import and export data, long and short factors collided fiercely. The US dollar, European currencies, xmserving.commodity currencies, and safe-haven currencies diverged across the board, and market volatility was significantly amplified. The following is a panoramic overview of the core good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market today.

1. Core bad news (suppressing risk appetite, good for safe-haven currencies)

1. The U.S.-Iran negotiations xmserving.completely broke down, and the United States announced a blockade of Iranian ports (the biggest negative)

Over the weekend (April 12), after 21 hours of high-level negotiations in Islamabad, the U.S. and Iran failed. The two sides did not reach any agreement. The differences xmserving.completely intensified on the three core issues of control of the Strait of Hormuz, restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities, and the unfreezing of overseas assets. The United States immediately announced that it would implement a xmserving.comprehensive blockade on all ships entering and exiting Iranian ports at 22:00 on April 13 (Beijing time), covering Iran’s core ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Iran responded forcefully, threatening to xmserving.completely block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. 20%-30% of the global seaborne crude oil trade channels are on the verge of being disrupted.

Impact: Geopolitical panic has intensified sharply, risk assets are under pressure across the board, and safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar has been temporarily boosted; however, the surge in energy prices has pushed up global inflation expectations, suppressed the space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and indirectly benefited the U.S. dollar.

2. The IMF lowered its global growth forecast, and debt risks in emerging markets have increased.

On April 13, the spring meeting of the IMF and the World Bank opened, and the "World Economic Outlook" report was released, which will predict the global economy in 2026.The growth forecast was lowered from 3.2% to 2.9%, the lowest level since 2020. The report pointed out that conflicts in the Middle East, trade barriers, and the fragmentation of the AI industry are the main drags. It also warned that the risk of sovereign debt defaults in emerging markets such as Sri Lanka, Ghana, and Pakistan is rising.

Impact: Pessimistic expectations for the global economy have fermented, and risk currencies such as the euro, pound, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar have xmserving.come under pressure; funds have returned to safe-haven assets such as U.S. bonds and the Japanese yen, and the U.S. dollar index has received periodic support.

3. The U.S. PPI in March exceeded expectations, and the rebound in inflation suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut

At 20:30 Beijing time, the United States released March PPI data: a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, both higher than market expectations (0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year). The core PPI was 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations. As a leading indicator of CPI, the rebound in PPI means that the stickiness of US inflation is still strong. Coupled with the skyrocketing energy prices, the Fed's expectations for an interest rate cut in June have further dropped to below 15%, and the probability of an interest rate cut in September has dropped from 70% to 55%.

Impact: The U.S. dollar index is positive in the short term, and non-U.S. currencies are generally under pressure; however, concerns about high interest rates exacerbate the risk of economic recession, which is negative for the U.S. dollar in the medium term.

4. China’s import and export growth slowed down in March, and xmserving.commodity currency demand weakened

China’s March import and export data released today showed that exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and imports increased by 3.5%, both lower than the previous values (exports of 6.8%, imports of 5.1%) and market expectations, and the momentum for foreign trade recovery has weakened. As the world's largest importer of xmserving.commodities, China's weak data directly suppressed demand for xmserving.commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar.

Impact: The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar weakened in the short term, with the Australian dollar falling below 0.7050 against the US dollar and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar rising to around 1.3830.

2. Core good news (supports risk appetite and is good for non-U.S. currencies)

1. The European Central Bank's stance is stable after cutting interest rates, and the euro's resilience is highlighted

After the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in early April, recent official speeches have continued to release cautious signals, emphasizing that "the space for interest rate cuts during the year is limited, and inflation and growth data need to be monitored." The euro zone's core CPI in March still reached 2.7%, higher than the ECB's target. Although the economy is weak, it has not fallen into recession. The narrowing of the interest rate difference between the euro zone and the United States is limited, which supports the euro to maintain high fluctuations above 1.1680 against the dollar.

Impact: The euro is relatively strong and has become the most resistant currency among European currencies, with short-term support at 1.1650 and resistance at 1.1720.

2. British economic data are solid, and expectations for a pound interest rate cut are postponed

The British service industry PMI and employment data in March continued to improve, and inflation fell slower than that in the United States. The market postponed the first interest rate cut by the Bank of England from June to August, and the policy rhythm gap between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve narrowed. Although GBP/USD has corrected after consecutive gains, the support at 1.3380 is strong, and it is expected to rebound again after risk aversion eases..

Impact: The pound’s mid-term support is solid, and short-term corrections are regarded as buying opportunities.

3. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates, and the Japanese yen is supported

Japan’s core CPI in March rose by 2.5% year-on-year, above the 2% target for 12 consecutive months. The continued depreciation of the Japanese yen triggered imported inflation, and the market’s bets on **the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.0% in April** rose to 60%. The Japanese Ministry of Finance has frequently verbally intervened in the exchange rate recently to limit the decline of the yen. The US dollar fell back against the yen after rising, with significant resistance at 159.50.

Impact: The Japanese yen’s safe-haven attributes resonate with expectations of interest rate hikes, and its short-term resilience is enhanced.

4. The situation in the Middle East has not escalated xmserving.comprehensively, and market panic is controllable

Although the US-Iran negotiations have broken down, the two sides have not yet announced a direct military strike. The US blockade of ports has not affected the passage of non-Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's countermeasures remain at the verbal stage. There has been no substantial interruption in global energy supply, market panic has not spread across the board, and risk currencies have not suffered a collapse.

Impact: To avoid extreme fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, non-US currencies remain range-bound, waiting for further signals.

3. Key conclusions and operational tips for today's foreign exchange market

Today's foreign exchange market presents a triple logic of "geographic risk aversion + inflation concerns + economic slowdown", and the long-short game is intensifying:

USD Index: In the short term, it is supported by PPI exceeding expectations and hedging demand, with resistance 99.00-99.20 and support 98.50; however, long-term high interest rates are bad for the economy, and the room for rebound is limited.

Euro, British pound: European currencies are relatively strong, with the euro supporting 1.1650 and the British pound supporting 1.3380. The correction can be much lower.

xmserving.commodity currencies (Australian dollar, Canadian dollar): dragged down by Chinese data and oil price fluctuations, they were weak and volatile. The Australian dollar supported 0.7050 and the Canadian dollar resisted 1.3830.

Safe-haven currencies (Japanese yen, Swiss franc): Supported by favorable geopolitical conditions and expectations of interest rate hikes, USD/JPY resistance is 159.50, USD/CHF support is 0.7890.

Trading strategy: Focus on range trading with light positions to avoid chasing ups and downs; focus on the follow-up actions of the United States and Iran, the details of the IMF report and the market's digestion of PPI data, and strictly set stop losses to prevent violent fluctuations caused by sudden geopolitical news.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". It is carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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News

market analysis

A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market

1. Core bad news (suppressing risk appetite, good for safe-haven currencies)

1. The U.S.-Iran negotiations xmserving.completely broke down, and the United States announced a blockade of Iranian ports (the biggest negative)

2. The IMF lowered its global growth forecast, and debt risks in emerging markets have increased.

3. The U.S. PPI in March exceeded expectations, and the rebound in inflation suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut

4. China’s import and export growth slowed down in March, and xmserving.commodity currency demand weakened

2. Core good news (supports risk appetite and is good for non-U.S. currencies)

1. The European Central Bank's stance is stable after cutting interest rates, and the euro's resilience is highlighted

2. British economic data are solid, and expectations for a pound interest rate cut are postponed

3. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates, and the Japanese yen is supported

4. The situation in the Middle East has not escalated xmserving.comprehensively, and market panic is controllable

3. Key conclusions and operational tips for today's foreign exchange market

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market

1. Core bad news (suppressing risk appetite, good for safe-haven currencies)

1. The U.S.-Iran negotiations xmserving.completely broke down, and the United States announced a blockade of Iranian ports (the biggest negative)

2. The IMF lowered its global growth forecast, and debt risks in emerging markets have increased.

3. The U.S. PPI in March exceeded expectations, and the rebound in inflation suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut

4. China’s import and export growth slowed down in March, and xmserving.commodity currency demand weakened

2. Core good news (supports risk appetite and is good for non-U.S. currencies)

1. The European Central Bank's stance is stable after cutting interest rates, and the euro's resilience is highlighted

2. British economic data are solid, and expectations for a pound interest rate cut are postponed

3. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates, and the Japanese yen is supported

4. The situation in the Middle East has not escalated xmserving.comprehensively, and market panic is controllable

3. Key conclusions and operational tips for today's foreign exchange market

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason