Oil prices soared by more than 8%, US-Iran negotiations broke down, the US announced a blockade of Iranian ports, and gold prices battled to the 4650 mark.

Basic news

In early trading in Asia on Monday (April 13, Beijing time), spot gold opened down more than 2% and traded around US$4,652 per ounce. Negotiations between the United States and Iran on Saturday failed to reach any agreement, mainly due to setbacks in the three major sticking points of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment and the unfreezing of Iran's overseas assets. After the negotiations were frustrated, the two sides China once again expressed a tough stance. The United States announced that it would block Iranian ports on the 13th, and Trump was considering a limited attack on Iran. The renewed geopolitical tensions have weakened the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%. U.S. crude oil opened higher, with an increase of 8%, once standing above $105.50/barrel, currently trading around $104.60/barrel, and may test whether it can stabilize at $105/barrel during the day.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed with mixed gains last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.56%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.11%, and the Nasdaq xmserving.composite Index rising 0.35%. However, all three major stock indexes recorded their largest weekly gains since November last week. Investors were cautious heading into the weekend, keeping a close eye on progress in Middle East peace talks.

In terms of economic data, the CPI in March rose by 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but due to the surge in energy prices, it recorded the largest monthly increase in the past four years; the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to a record low.

Among individual stocks, CoreWeave rose 10.9% due to its cooperation with Anthropic, Broadcom and Nvidia rose 4.7% and 2.6% respectively to promote technology.The technology sector led gains, while financials and consumer staples lagged. The market is paying attention to the upcoming earnings season, and S&P 500 constituent stocks are expected to see earnings growth of 13.9% year-on-year.

Focus during the day

OPEC releases its monthly crude oil market report (the specific release time of the monthly report is to be determined, usually around 18-21:00 Beijing time); the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank hold spring meetings; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda visits the United States from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial xmserving.committee meetings.

Gold Market

The price of gold held steady at US$4,761.79 per ounce on Friday, rising nearly 2% last week, but US gold futures closed down 0.6% to US$4,787.40. The market is paying attention to the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, although the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and the war in Lebanon puts the ceasefire to the test, but the weakening of the US dollar provides support for gold prices.

Data show that U.S. consumer prices recorded the largest month-on-month increase in nearly four years in March, in line with expectations. In terms of other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.6% to $76.26, platinum fell 2.3%, and palladium fell 1.9%, but all three will rise on a weekly basis.

Oil market

The international oil market ended lower on Friday, with Brent crude oil futures falling 0.8% to US$95.20 per barrel, and U.S. crude oil futures falling 1.3% to US$96.57 per barrel. They fell 12.7% and 13.4% respectively last week, both recording the largest weekly declines since 2022. The market sell-off came on the eve of talks between Iran and the United States aimed at reaching a permanent cease-fire agreement, even though oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely restricted and the attacks have reduced Saudi oil production by 600,000 barrels per day.

Analysts pointed out that the key to the oil market is whether ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz can be restored. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that oil-producing countries in the Middle East cut production by about 7.5 million barrels per day in March and are expected to further expand production cuts in April. At the same time, U.S. energy xmserving.companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas drilling platforms last week, down about 7% from the same period last year.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar index fell last Friday, recording its largest weekly decline since January, as investors lifted safe-haven positions and bet that oil shipments would resume if the ceasefire in the Gulf region is maintained.

The euro was at $1.173 against the U.S. dollar, up 1.8% last week; the pound was at $1.347 against the U.S. dollar, up 2%; the risk-sensitive Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar rose nearly 3% against the U.S. dollar last week. Although the ceasefire agreement showed signs of breaking down last Friday, the market as a whole is still relatively optimistic.

Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose the most in the past four years in March, but it was in line with expectations. The market is paying more attention to the outcome of the U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad this weekend. Analysts said any positive progress in the talks would be negative for the dollar, while a reverse could quickly reverse course. The yen fell to 159.255 against the dollar.

CountryInternational News

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.4%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June has dropped to 0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.2%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 1.8%.

After the negotiations failed, the United States and Iran expressed a tough stance on the Strait of Hormuz again

The negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad ended on the 12th, and the two sides did not reach any agreement. Iran said the negotiations were in an "atmosphere of distrust and suspicion" and that the two sides had differences on two or three important issues. The United States said that the United States has very clearly stated its "red line", but Iran does not accept the US conditions. Trump said the United States would immediately initiate a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking any ships trying to enter or exit the strait. The Iranian military emphasized that all ship activities in the Strait of Hormuz are currently under strict monitoring and xmserving.complete control of the Iranian armed forces. Any wrong move will cause the enemy to suffer serious losses.

After the breakdown of negotiations, Trump is considering launching limited strikes against Iran

After the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks led by Vice President Vance, Trump is considering restarting limited military strikes and imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. According to multiple officials and people familiar with the matter, Trump may also restart a xmserving.comprehensive bombing campaign, but given that such a move may further exacerbate regional instability and his unwillingness to engage in a long-term military conflict, this option is less likely. He could also choose to implement a temporary blockade while putting pressure on allies to assume responsibility for long-term military escort missions in the strait in the future. After U.S.-Iran talks collapsed in Pakistan, Trump spent much of Sunday at his private resort in Doral, Florida, in the Miami suburb of Florida, attending Fox News programs, playing golf and xmserving.communicating with advisers. Aides say he remains open to diplomatic solutions despite announcing a blockade and renewing threats to strike Iran's infrastructure. Trump said on the Fox News program: "I don't want to do it, but their sea areas, desalination facilities, power plants, these targets are all very easy to attack."

British media: The UK will not participate in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

According to multiple British media reports on the 12th, the UK will not participate in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The British Sky News channel quoted a government spokesperson as saying that the UK will continue to support the restoration of smooth flow of the Strait of Hormuz and that it should not become a tolled channel. In this regard, the UK is cooperating with France and other countries to form an alliance. Earlier in the day, Trump threatened on social media that the U.S. Navy would immediately begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz in view of Iran's refusal to make concessions on the key issue of its nuclear program.

The U.S. Central xmserving.command said it would begin blocking Iranian ports on the 13th

The U.S. Central xmserving.command: According to the presidential announcement, the U.S. Central xmserving.commandThe xmserving.command forces will begin to implement a blockade on all ships entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on April 13 (22:00 Beijing time). The blockade will be enforced equally on all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Central xmserving.command forces will not impede the freedom of navigation of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports. Further information will be provided to merchant seafarers through formal notifications before the lockdown begins. All sailors are advised to pay close attention to NOTAM broadcasts and contact the U.S. Navy on Channel 16 when sailing near the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Non-military ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

On April 12, local time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued Announcement No. 59, stating that non-military ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the premise of xmserving.complying with relevant specific navigation regulations. The statement stated that any country's military ship that attempts to approach the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of its name or pretext, will be deemed to have violated the ceasefire agreement and will receive a severe and tough response from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

The South Korean government will maintain the "emergency mode" due to fruitless negotiations between the United States and Iran

The South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said on the 12th that since the United States and Iran failed to reach any agreement in negotiations, the South Korean government will maintain the current "emergency mode" to deal with the impact of the situation in the Middle East on the country's economy. Cheong Wa Dae held a meeting that afternoon, and relevant departments coordinated a response plan for the situation in the Middle East. Cheong Wa Dae deputy spokesperson Jeon Eun-soo said that participants agreed that given the fruitless negotiations between the United States and Iran, the South Korean economy still faces uncertainty under the current international situation. Even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement, it will take a long time for international crude oil transportation to return to normal and for the restoration of energy production facilities in the Middle East. Jeon Eun-soo said that taking into account the above factors, before the war between the United States and Israel is xmserving.completely over, the South Korean government decided to continue to "strictly implement the current emergency response situation." President Lee Jae-myung will continue to host an emergency economic meeting, and the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister will be responsible for coordinating emergency response measures.

U.S. media said there are three main sticking points in the U.S.-Iran negotiations

The U.S. "New York Times" reported on the 12th, citing two informed Iranian officials, that there are three main sticking points in the U.S.-Iran negotiations: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, and the unfreezing of Iran's overseas assets. According to reports, the United States has demanded that Iran immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to allow all maritime shipping. "Iran refuses to give up control of this chokepoint," the two officials said, adding that it would only do so if a final peace deal is reached. Iranian officials said Iran is demanding xmserving.compensation from the United States for damage caused by the air strikes and the unfreezing of Iran's frozen oil revenues in Iraq, Luxembourg, Bahrain, Japan, Qatar, Turkey and Germany for reconstruction. But the United States rejected these demands. According to the report, another problem is that US President Trump requires Iran to "hand over or sell its entire stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium." Officials said IranA counter-proposal was put forward, but the two sides were unable to reach a xmserving.compromise.

The United States and the United Kingdom are worried that AI will expose vulnerabilities in the financial industry

Anthropic released a preview version of the AI ​​model Mythos. The U.S. government recently convened an emergency meeting of a group of bank executives to discuss related issues. Anthropic says the Mythos model can identify and exploit vulnerabilities in "all major operating systems and all major web browsers" at a speed and scale that significantly exceeds traditional manual processes. The xmserving.company has not rolled out the model on a large scale due to concerns about cybersecurity. People familiar with the matter said that after the release of the model, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell quickly convened emergency meetings with executives from Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and other banks to ensure that each bank understands the risks that the Mythos model and similar models may bring in the future and takes measures to protect its own systems. In addition, there is news that the British banking industry is also paying close attention to the Mythos model, and the Bank of England will discuss related issues with the Ministry of Finance and other institutions at a recent meeting.

Israeli people held demonstrations calling on the Israeli government to immediately cease fire

On the 11th local time, thousands of Israeli people held anti-war demonstrations in Tel Aviv, condemning the Israeli government’s continued military actions, demanding that the Israeli government immediately stop the war and resolve regional disputes through dialogue and negotiation.

Domestic News

my country has successfully developed key xmserving.components for its reusable spacecraft

It was learned from the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation that on April 11, the 5-meter-diameter xmserving.composite power cabin product developed by the academy was officially off the shelves. This is the largest xmserving.composite overall cabin section of a reusable launch vehicle in the domestic aerospace field. Its successful development marks a major breakthrough in my country's large-size aerospace xmserving.composite structure manufacturing technology.

Over 87% of people studying abroad in my country choose to return to China for development

According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Education, from 1978 to 2025, the total number of people studying abroad in my country has reached 9.46 million. 8.01 million people have xmserving.completed their studies, of which 6.98 million have returned to China, and more than 87% of overseas students have chosen to return to China for development.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Oil prices soared by more than 8%, US-Iran negotiations broke down, the US announced a blockade of Iranian ports, and the gold price decisively reached the 4650 mark". It was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

Every successful person has a beginning. Only by having the courage to start can you find the way to success. Read the next article now!