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US dollar index is expected to rise, US retail sales are attracting much attention

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Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows, and since ancient times, there have been sorrowful moon and songs. But we never understood it, and we thought everything was just a distant memory. Because there is no real experience, there is no deep feeling in the heart.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The US dollar index is expected to rise, and US retail sales are attracting much attention." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday, the US dollar index hovered around 98.47. During the day, Fed Director Kugler delivered a speech on the property market and the U.S. economic outlook, South Africa hosted a meeting of Treasury Secretary and Central Bank Governors until July 18.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar: The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after CBS reported that U.S. President Donald Trump asked a group of House Republicans whether he should fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The news offsets the gains previously triggered by lower-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data in June, which initially boosted the dollar amid signs of slowing producer inflation. Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to about 57, remaining above the neutral 50 level. If it continues to break through 60, it will enhance bullish confidence and send a signal that buying pressure will accelerate. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) remains positive, with the MACD line above the signal line. The histogram bar is expanding, indicating that bullish momentum is increasing.

Euro: EUR/USD maintained an early gain of 0.25% on Wednesday after U.S. President Trump threatened to remove Fed Chairman Powell. The news, coupled with lower-than-expected inflation reports on producers, has limited the euro-dollar gains. Technically, EUR/USD is neutral, and although to consolidate the upward trend, traders need to achieve a daily closing on the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1681. Once implemented, this willPaving the way for further upside, 1.1700 is next. Then came the daily high of 1.1749 on July 20, followed by 1.1800 and a record 1.1829. On the other hand, a break below 1.1600 will make today's low of 1.1562 the focus. A breakthrough to the latter will expose a 50-day SMA of 1.1482, followed by a 100-day SMA of 1.1254.

GBP: GBP/USD rose again on Wednesday, ending its eight consecutive trading days of decline as pound buyers took the brakes on the continued decline. Investors may be concerned about the Fed's political independence as President Trump stepped up his attack on Fed Chairman Powell, and the dollar is affected by a deteriorating broad market sentiment. Technically, Wednesday's weak rebound cut off the recent unilateral downward trend after the pound fell from multi-year highs in early July. The GBP/USD looks likely to confirm a technical rebound from the 1.3400 level, but only if buying pressure can maintain momentum.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. The EU announced a long-term budget of 2 trillion euros

On the 16th, the European xmserving.commission announced a long-term budget of about 2 trillion euros, focusing on increasing investment in priorities such as national defense and xmserving.competitiveness. The budget covers seven years from 2028 to 2034, and aims to provide strategic guidance and financial support for enhancing the overall market xmserving.competitiveness of the EU and narrowing the development gap between member states by establishing EU medium- and long-term policy priority areas and investment directions. The budget funds are focused on investments in defense, scientific research and agriculture, providing assistance to Ukraine, as well as addressing climate change and protecting biodiversity. The budget also plans to reform relevant rules such as agricultural subsidies and economic development funding. According to relevant EU procedures, the budget must be unanimously agreed by 27 member states and approved by the European Parliament.

2. Fed's "Black Book": Manufacturing activities have dropped slightly. Recruitment of enterprises remains cautious. On July 16, local time, the Fed issued a "Black Book" for economic status. The “Black Book” shows that economic activity has increased slightly from late May to early July. Uncertainty remains high, leading to continued caution in xmserving.companies. Tourism activities rose and fell, manufacturing activities fell slightly, and non-financial services activities were almost unchanged on average, but there were differences between regions. The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Recruitment is generally cautious, which many attribute to ongoing economic and policy uncertainty. More and more regions point out that there is a labor shortage in skilled jobs. Employers in some regions have increased their investment in automation and artificial intelligence, aiming to reduce additional recruitment needs. Prices in all regions have increased. In all 12 regions, businesses reported that they were facing moderate to significant input cost pressures associated with tariffs, especially raw materials used in manufacturing and construction industries. Many xmserving.companies pass on at least part of the cost increase to consumers by raising prices or charging surcharges. People from all walks of life expect cost pressures to continue to rise in the xmserving.coming months, increasing the likelihood that consumer prices will start to rise faster by the end of the summer.

3. Trump will issue tariff letters to more than 150 countries. The tax rate may be 10% or 15%.

U.S. President Trump said that he will issue tariff letters to more than 150 countries. The tax rate may be set at 10% or 15%, further advancing his trade agenda. "We will issue payment notices to more than 150 countries, with tariff rates specified on the notice," Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday. He added, "For this group, every country will be the same." These countries are "not big countries and have little trade volume with us." Trump said in an interview later that day that the tariff rate "may be 10% or 15%, and we have not decided yet."

4. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is 4.1%, and the probability of the rate cut in September is 56.3%. According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 43.7%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 54%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 2.2%.

5. The drafting of the "dismissal letter" also denied that Trump may target the Federal Reserve Board of Directors next step

The conflict between Trump and Powell caused another climax. There are reports that Trump has drafted a letter to fire Powell and has solicited opinions from top Republican leaders. However, after the relevant news was leaked, Trump suddenly changed his mind that he did not intend to fire Powell. According to Fox reporters citing people familiar with the matter, this capricious attitude reflects differences within the Trump administration over whether it can legally remove the Fed's chairmanship. Maybe it's not the time yet. Trump has hinted that there may be fraud issues related to the renovation of the Federal Reserve Building. But this seems a bit far-fetched. His sharper sentence was: "The Fed xmserving.commission did not perform its duties at all." This may mean that his strategy is changing, from directly pressuring Powell to the entire Fed Council. Currently, Trump already has two allies in the council: Bowman and Waller. The next step may be to win the support of more council members. There are more than one way to cut interest rates, and it does not necessarily require Powell's vote, as long as it is supported by the majority of voters.

Institutional View

1. Bank of America: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before next year

Bank of America has observed market conditions in the latest quarterThe situation has improved. "This has allowed our global leading research team to continue to predict that the United States will not experience a recession and the economy will grow moderately - the year-end growth rate is about 1.5%, and the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates by next year," CEO Moynihan said in a conference call with analysts. "This has allowed our global leading research team to continue to predict that the U.S. will not see a recession, and the economy will grow moderately - the year-end growth rate is about 1.5%, and the Fed will not cut interest rates by next year." Moynihan said that individual and corporate customers are still spending continuously, and customers are still seeking certainty. He also added that the recent trade agreement and the passage of the tax bill are allowing customers to start to form clear expectations for the future and adjust their behavior accordingly.

2. Analysts: Strong inflation will make the Bank of England more cautious in cutting interest rates

After the UK inflation data was higher than expected, investors slightly lowered their expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cut in August. The overall inflation rate in the UK rose to 3.6% year-on-year in June, up from 3.4% in May. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed that the market's pricing of the Bank of England's probability of a rate cut in August fell to 83% from 88% at the beginning of this week. Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorne said in the report that strong inflation performance could make members of the Bank of England's monetary policy xmserving.committee more cautious about future interest rate cuts. The unexpected performance of this inflation data has made the Bank of England's interest rate path more xmserving.complicated.

3. UBS: The euro is expected to rise to 1.23 against the US dollar in June 2026

UBS strategists said that for global investors seeking to diversify their dollar positions, the euro will become the core alternative currency. Therefore, they raised their expectations for the euro exchange rate. UBS expects that by June 2026, the euro-USD exchange rate will rise to 1.23, higher than the expected level of 1.21 at the end of 2025; while previous expectations for these two time points were 1.20 and 1.16 respectively. They said: "For global investors seeking to diversify their US dollar positions, the euro is an outstanding 'default' alternative."

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CATEGORIES

News

market news

US dollar index is expected to rise, US retail sales are attracting much attention

Analysis of major currencies

1. The EU announced a long-term budget of 2 trillion euros

3. Trump will issue tariff letters to more than 150 countries. The tax rate may be 10% or 15%.

5. The drafting of the "dismissal letter" also denied that Trump may target the Federal Reserve Board of Directors next step

Institutional View

1. Bank of America: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before next year

2. Analysts: Strong inflation will make the Bank of England more cautious in cutting interest rates

3. UBS: The euro is expected to rise to 1.23 against the US dollar in June 2026

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

US dollar index is expected to rise, US retail sales are attracting much attention

Analysis of major currencies

1. The EU announced a long-term budget of 2 trillion euros

3. Trump will issue tariff letters to more than 150 countries. The tax rate may be 10% or 15%.

5. The drafting of the "dismissal letter" also denied that Trump may target the Federal Reserve Board of Directors next step

Institutional View

1. Bank of America: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before next year

2. Analysts: Strong inflation will make the Bank of England more cautious in cutting interest rates

3. UBS: The euro is expected to rise to 1.23 against the US dollar in June 2026

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason