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The euro zone bond market stabilizes, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 16
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The euro zone bond market stabilizes, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 16." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major U.S. stock futures indexes fell slightly before the market. Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.3%, Dow Jones Futures fell 0.1%, and S&P 500 Futures fell 0.2%. European stocks opened lower collectively, with the European Stock 50 falling 0.53%, the German DAX falling 0.33%, and the UK FTSE 100 falling 0.05%.
2. Market news interpretation
Eurozone bond market stabilizes: US and UK inflation and tariff doubts intertwined
⑴On July 16, eurozone government bond yields fell slightly, and the market evaluated the latest inflation data of the United States and the United Kingdom. ⑵ U.S. CPI rose 0.3% in June, showing that Trump's tariff remarks may push up prices and prompt investors to slightly lower expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. ⑶ German 10-year government bond yield fell 1 basis point to 2.7%, close to the nearly four-month high hit on Monday 2.737%. ⑴ Societe Generale analyst Kenneth Broux said that the market atmosphere was calm, the UK inflation data did not affect Europe, and yields were suspended. ⑸ UK's CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, the highest in more than a year, pushing the 10-year UK Treasury yield by 2 basis points to 4.65%. ⑹ German 30-year government bond yield fell 1 basis point to 3.23%, reaching its highest since October 2023 on Monday. ⑺ Italy's HICP rose 0.2% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year; the eurozone's quarterly trade surplus in May reached 16.2 billion euros, higher than expected 13 billion euros. ⑻The market is paying attention to Trump's tariff remarks and U.S. producer price data, and yield trends may be affected by global trade tensions.
The Israeli army said it had opened a new military corridor in southern Gaza
On July 16 local time, the Israeli Defense Force issued a statement saying that in the past few weeks, the Israeli 36th Division has continued to carry out military operations in the Khan Yunis area in the southern Gaza Strip, aiming to destroy the infrastructure of Palestinian militants and attack its militants. The statement pointed out that the 188th Armored Brigade of the Israeli Army and the Golani Brigade have xmserving.completed the opening of the Magen Oz military corridor. The corridor is about 15 kilometers long and separates Khan Yunis from east to west. The Israeli army said that the military corridor was a key link in putting pressure on the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and dismantling the Qihan Yunis Brigade.
At least four EU member states refuse to purchase US weapons for Kiev
According to foreign media reports, at least four EU member states have decided not to participate in the initiative to purchase US weapons for Kiev. These include two EU powers - France and Italy. It has been reported that Paris does not intend to participate in the initiative to buy American weapons for Kiev because it hopes to develop its own weapons production. In addition, the Italian newspaper LaStampa quoted sources as saying that Italy would not join the project due to lack of funds. The Czech Republic and Hungary officially announced their refusal to participate in the procurement initiative. The Czech Prime Minister explained that the Czech side would provide assistance to Ukraine through other means. The Hungarian Foreign Minister pointed out that "Hungary's funds and weapons" will not be provided to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Germany, Sweden and Denmark have announced their desire to participate in the initiative.
Krish Palace called on all parties to put pressure on Ukraine to urge it to hold a new round of negotiations with Russia
Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov pointed out that the Kremlin called on all parties to put pressure on Ukraine to urge it to hold a new round of talks with Russia. Peskov told reporters: "We call on everyone to do this. In this case, it is mainly the mediation efforts of the United States - President Trump and his team. The parties have issued many statements and expressed a lot of disappointment. Of course, we hope that at the same time, we can put pressure on Ukraine (to continue the negotiations). "Previously, Peskov said that Russia is still willing to hold a third round of negotiations with Ukraine, but has not received any proposals from Ukraine for negotiations so far.
Bank of the United States has grown steadily, and consumer finance has become the main driving force
⑴Profits exceed expectations: On July 16, Bank of America released its second-quarter 2025 financial report, with net profit increasing by 3% year-on-year to US$7.1 billion, with earnings per share of 89 cents, higher than analysts' expectations of 86 cents. ⑵ Revenue structure differentiation: Total revenue in the quarter increased by 4% to US$26.46 billion, slightly lower than market expectations. Among them, transaction revenue increased by 14% year-on-year to US$5.3 billion, setting a record for growth for 13 consecutive quarters. ⑶Net interest income continues to improve: Benefiting from the interest rate environment, net interest income reached 147$100 million, achieving a fourth consecutive quarterly growth, and consumer banking revenue increased by 15% to $2.97 billion. ⑷ Short-term pressure on investment banking business: investment banking revenue fell by 6% month-on-month to US$1.5 billion, reflecting the impact of market volatility on corporate financing activities. ⑸ Management emphasizes economic resilience: CEO Brian Moynihan pointed out that stable consumer spending and healthy asset quality are performance support, which is consistent with the recent statements of large banks in the industry. ⑹Double-edged sword of market volatility: The increase in transaction activity caused by Trump's tariff remarks partially offset the negative impact of the slowdown in M&A business.
France leads the EU's initiative to counter-coercive tools to respond to US tariffs. It is reported that it has received more support from countries.
More and more EU member states hope that if an acceptable agreement with the United States is not possible by August 1, and Donald Trump threatens to impose 30% tariffs on the EU, then the EU should activate its most powerful trade tool. According to people familiar with the matter, more than six EU governments have supported the initiative to launch the EU's so-called "anti-coercive instrument" (ACI) led by France. Some member states are more cautious, and others have not yet stated their position, according to people familiar with the matter. Because the discussion was not made public, people familiar with the matter asked to be anonymous. The issue was discussed at a meeting of trade ministers on Monday, people familiar with the matter said.
Euro-denominated credit default protection costs rise slightly
Euro-denominated credit default protection costs rise slightly as investors worry that U.S. tariffs push up inflation. Data from the U.S. consumer price index released this week shows that price pressure is increasing. "The market has always been difficult to break out of the discussion of 'how much inflation will the U.S. tariff policy trigger?'" Deutsche Bank economists said in a report. The iTraxx European Cross-Index, which tracks credit default swaps for high-yield bonds in the euro zone, rose 2 basis points to 285 basis points.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1599, a drop of 0.03%. Before New York, the (Euro-USD) price closed high at the recent intraday level, trying to recoup some previous losses and trying to unload some obvious oversold conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of positive signals from them, as the ongoing negative pressure due to their trading below the EMA50, and trading along the bias line under the dominance of the short-term bearish correction trend.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3390, an increase of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price rose in the last trade, trying to recover some of the previous losses and on (RSI)Get rid of some obvious oversold conditions, especially when positive overlapping signals begin to appear.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3334.45, an increase of 0.29%. Before the New York market, the price of (gold) fell in the last intraday trading, trying to get bullish momentum that could help it rise again, leverages the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50 and trades along the secondary bias line in the short term, except for the positive signal on the (RSI), after reaching the oversold zone.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 37.875, an increase of 0.53%. Before the New York Stock Market, the price of (silver) fell in the last intraday trading, dominating the short-term major bullish trend, trading along the bias line, due to its continued positive pressure on trading above the EMA50, in addition to the positive signal of (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, which made Price try to gather some positive momentum to help it recover.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 65.810, a drop of 1.05%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price fell in the last intraday trading, affected by the short-term breakout of the main bullish trend line, and continued negative pressure due to its trading below the EMA50, and negative signals appeared on the (RSI), which opened the way for recording more losses after unloading the previous oversold conditions.
4. Institutional view
UBS: The euro is expected to rise to 1.23 against the US dollar in June 2026
UBS strategists said that for global investors seeking to diversify their dollar positions, the euro will become the core alternative currency. Therefore, they raised their expectations for the euro exchange rate. UBS expects that by June 2026, the euro-USD exchange rate will rise to 1.23, higher than the expected level of 1.21 at the end of 2025; while previous expectations for these two time points were 1.20 and 1.16 respectively. They said: "For global investors seeking to diversify their dollar positions, the euro is a prominent ‘default’ alternative."
Dutch International: The improvement in job markets in southern European countries has relieved the European Central Bank
Dutch International
Dutch InternationalGroup analysts Carsten Brzeski and Bert Colijn said the improvement in job markets in southern European countries – in sharp contrast to their Nordic neighbors – was a good thing for the euro zone and also gave the European Central Bank a sigh of relief. Thanks to the support of European investment funds and the prosperity of tourism in the post-epidemic era, unemployment rates in southern European economies such as Italy, Spain and Portugal have continued to decline in recent quarters. In contrast, the private sector employment market in Nordic countries such as France and Germany have shown weakness. The two economists wrote in their research that the increased convergence of the euro zone economies and labor markets will make the work of the ECB easier to carry out. They pointed out that when the economic trends of various countries in the euro zone differentiate, unified monetary policies are often difficult to effectively implement. The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The euro zone bond market stabilizes, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on July 16" was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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