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The March CPI surge puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, and the dollar’s net long position has risen for 7 consecutive weeks or may continue to rise.

Wonderful introduction:

If the sea loses the rolling of huge waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the wild dance of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its true course, it will lose its meaning.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The CPI explosion in March puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar net long position has risen for 7 consecutive weeks or may continue to rise." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

Asian Market Trends

As the US-Iran peace talks failed, demand for safe havens increased and the US dollar gained support. As of now, the US dollar is quoted at 99.01.

Overview of Foreign Exchange Market Fundamentals

The Israeli Prime Minister said that he will continue to attack Iran and its proxies, and the Israeli army has violently attacked Hezbollah in the past 24 hours.

The surge in oil prices caused the overall CPl in the United States to rise sharply in March, up 3.3% year-on-year; core inflation remained stable.

The Kremlin: The special envoy’s visit to the United States is not a restart of peace negotiations in Ukraine. Budanov, a key member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, said that Ukraine is close to reaching an agreement with Putin. Putin announced a 32-hour ceasefire on Orthodox Easter, and Ukraine announced it would follow suit.

Russia said Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire agreement and attacked the Kherson region.

Federal Reserve Daly: If the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, it is not impossible to cut interest rates. A rate hike is less likely than a rate cut or keeping rates unchanged.

The situation in Iran

①Trump: Will begin to implement a blockade on all ships trying to enter and exit the Strait of Hormuz, and will intercept ships paying tolls to Iran in international waters, and at the same time clear the mines laid by Iran in the strait. Except for the nuclear issue, the United States and Iran have reached agreement on "most issues."

②Trump said that the United States will not allow Iran to make money by selling oil.

③The time and location of the next round of US-Iran negotiations have not yet been determined.

④Israeli media: Israel assesses that the US-Iraq ceasefire may be extended, the Israeli army is preparing to launch another attack on Iran.

⑤Iranian Revolutionary Guards: Non-military ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the premise of xmserving.complying with navigation regulations.

⑥ Iran claimed that it resisted three "unreasonable demands" of the United States during the negotiations: demanding "equal sharing of interests in the Straits"; shipping all 60% enriched uranium out of the country; and depriving Iran of all uranium enrichment rights in the next 20 years.

⑦ Qalibaf: If the United States provokes, Iran will also fight back.

Summary of institutional views

Analyst Ira Kawaller: The Federal Reserve has nothing to do about the current environment, and inflation under the Trump administration may be the least problem in the future...

Under the current macro background, although the U.S. March CPI data released last week was in line with expectations, it seems irrelevant, but it actually deserves our attention. Data show that the overall CPI in the United States recorded a monthly rate of 0.9% in March, the fastest monthly increase since the COVID-19 epidemic; the annual rate soared to 3.3%, well above the 2% target expected by the Federal Reserve.

The key to this report is that the data reflect a lag to the end of March, and monetary policy requires a forward-looking perspective. The Fed always faces a question: Is the latest data part of a trend, or an anomaly that could reverse in the future? These judgments are continually adjusted. xmserving.complicating matters, there are xmserving.competing influences in the economy. Policymakers need to judge which impact is likely to dominate.

As always, the Fed must balance rising inflation with concerns about economic weakness and unemployment. Current data points to inflation being the bigger problem. The U.S. hasn't experienced much of an economic slowdown yet, but activity has slowed in many parts of the world, with possible spillover effects.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure indicate that energy prices will remain high. As long as the waterway remains under Iranian control, these forces will continue to influence the world. While a slowdown in the global economy may ease inflation, it's hard to imagine a surge in energy prices not having a bigger impact.

Looking more critically, the Fed is particularly concerned about core inflation excluding food and energy. This indicator was stable in February and March, both recording 0.2%, while the annual rate increased from 2.5% to 2.6%. Looking at this set of data alone, the inflation situation has only worsened slightly. But we think the Fed is unlikely to take xmserving.comfort from this. Typically, food and energy are downweighted because they are considered transitory, but with the Strait of Hormuz firmly in Iran's hands, it would be inappropriate to ignore rising energy prices. Energy prices will remain high for the foreseeable future, pushing up inflation expectations. Inflation expectations tend to be self-fulfilling, and the Fed clearly wants to keep them in check. Based on this, any easing of monetary policy or interest rate cuts seems unlikely in the short term. In fact, we should expect the Fed to start another round of interest rate hikes.

Of course, who knows what will happen, given our reliance on a narcissistic, incompetent, and uninhibited president to guide the war on his instincts and moral sense?We are facing the possibility that inflation may end up being the least of the problems. But make no mistake: With Trump in the White House, our safety and security have been xmserving.compromised and are in danger of getting worse. Unfortunately, the Fed can't solve this problem.

Bank of America: The logic of interest rate cuts remains, but inflation and war have made the path more tortuous and the Fed’s dovish stance has weakened

Maintain interest rate cut expectations

We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, but will postpone the interest rate cut from June/July to September/October (there is a risk of not cutting interest rates). The reasons for maintaining interest rate cut expectations are: ① The Federal Reserve tends to ignore supply-driven inflation ② The U.S. labor market is stable but fragile, with weak signs of wage pressure ③ Political pressures face pressure. While risks tilt toward no rate cut, Warsh should be in office by September and there should be enough evidence that inflation is cooling to build support for several rate cuts.

There may also be no interest rate cut this year

The market has repriced expectations for an interest rate cut (albeit only by 7 basis points) after news of the ceasefire broke out, which provides support for us to maintain the non-consensus forecast for an interest rate cut this year. Nonetheless, we acknowledge that the basis for our forecast is shaky and the risk of no rate cuts this year remains. Although the Fed still has a dovish bias, it is not as dovish as it was a year ago - the policy rate is closer to the neutral rate estimate, and there has been a series of higher-than-expected inflation data recently. Trustee Waller, who we consider a dovish thought leader, has also been more balanced in his recent statements. Kevin Warsh also expressed concerns about rising xmserving.commodity prices in April 2008, when he noted: "We cannot wait until inflation expectations get out of hand, because by then it will be too late." So if inflation continues to rise faster than expected, the war lasts longer than we expect, inflation expectations begin to climb, and/or wage inflation turns an upward inflection point, the Fed may consider it prudent to guide markets to prepare for more two-way risks for the next policy action. For now, though, the baseline scenario still calls for a rate cut this year.

Danske Bank: The rise in long-term neutral interest rates suggests that easing has bottomed out, and high inflation will make it possible to raise interest rates

The dot plot of the Federal Reserve’s decision in March released an important signal: the median increase in the long-term federal funds rate forecast has hit 3.1%, the highest level since 2026. Although Chairman Powell described the current stance of monetary policy as moderately tight on the border between tightening and non-tightening, an updated Real Neutral Rate Dashboard that includes 13 indicators shows that the real neutral rate has risen to 1.6% over the past year. This means that under an ideal scenario of 2% inflation, the current nominal interest rate of 3.6% is barely consistent with average neutrality.

However, given that inflation remains significantly above target and is expected to remain so for some time, the current interest rate level may be easing in nature rather than mildly tightening. This alternative assessment of policy positions is consistent with the desire of some officials to adopt a two-sided description of policy prospects.Consistent, that is, it retains the potential option of further raising interest rates if inflation remains high for a long time.

Mizuho Securities: There is little hope for US-Iran peace talks, and the yen will expose the vulnerability of energy dependence

We believe that the United States is very likely to reject most of the ceasefire conditions proposed by Iran. Whether allowing Iran to continue to de facto manage the Strait of Hormuz or recognizing its uranium enrichment activities runs counter to the core U.S. military goal of "preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon." While these conditions are more of a bargaining chip for Iran, we remain deeply skeptical that the two sides will reach a final agreement within the two-week negotiation window.

For the Japanese economy, which is highly dependent on Middle East energy, the core contradiction lies in the current navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The punitive traffic conditions imposed by Iran have deeply disturbed the shipping xmserving.community. The Japan Shipowners Association bluntly stated that due to the lack of "reliable and specific" safety information, it is currently impossible to restart the route. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is deeply concerned about the evacuation order of the 42 Japanese-related ships and a total of about 3,000 international merchant ships in the Persian Gulf, believing that a large-scale evacuation in a short period of time can easily cause chaos.

The deeper crisis is that even if the strait is restored to traffic in the future, the damaged energy infrastructure and the "war xmserving.compensation" (tolls) that Iran plans to charge will significantly increase the cost center of crude oil. This means that crude oil futures cannot return to the pre-conflict levels of $60 to $70 in the short term. Driven by this, we believe that Japan's domestic inflation, which has stabilized, faces significant risks of a second rebound from the spring to autumn of 2027. If high oil prices persist for a long time, the government will be forced to extend gasoline subsidies that cost hundreds of billions of yen per month, which will undoubtedly further worsen the public financial situation. In this environment of "imported inflation" and increasing fiscal pressure, the vulnerability of the yen exchange rate will continue to appear.

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The March CPI surge puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, and the dollar’s net long position has risen for 7 consecutive weeks or may continue to rise.

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The March CPI surge puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, and the dollar’s ​​net long position has risen for 7 consecutive weeks or may continue to rise.

Asian Market Trends

Summary of institutional views

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The Most Awarded Broker
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The March CPI surge puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, and the dollar’s net long position has risen for 7 consecutive weeks or may continue to rise.