Oil prices hit record highs near 3,250 Trump plans chip and drug tariffs

Basic news

On Tuesday (April 15th Beijing time), spot gold trading around 3211.44, gold prices fell on Monday, and fell after hitting an all-time high of 3245.51 earlier in the session. Risk sentiment improved after the White House exempted high tariffs on smartphones and xmserving.computers; U.S. crude oil trading around 61.60 US dollars per barrel, oil prices closed slightly higher on Monday. Data showed that Asian powers' crude oil imports rebounded sharply in March, but the gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and curb fuel demand.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with Apple bringing the biggest boost to the S&P 500 as the White House exempted new tariffs on smartphones and xmserving.computers. The uncertainty of future tariffs has curbed optimism, and the three major stock indexes closed off from their intraday highs. Investors remain worried about how businesses will manage their supply chains as more changes are expected on tariffs.

The U.S. announced some tariff exemptions last Friday, but President Trump said on Sunday that he would announce tariff rates on semiconductor imports this week. Affected by this news, most global technology stocks rose, with iPhone maker Apple rising 2.2%. Dell climbed 4%, while HP rose 2.5%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor index rose only 0.3%, while the share price of leading chip maker Nvidia fell 0.2%.

Trading on Monday fluctuated significantly, and has been the case since Trump announced the full imposition of tariffs on April 2. As news of Trump's tariffs recurred, investors feared that the global trade war would lead to the economy in recession, and the market experienced its biggest volatility in years. ArgentCapJed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at italAdvisors in St. Louis, Missouri, said there is only persistent uncertainty now, with consumers, businesses and investors struggling to make plans for the future and lacking reasons to implement long-term spending plans.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 40524.79 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.79% to 5405.97 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.64% to 16831.48 points.

Wall Street's "Fear Index" CBOE Volatility Index fell to 30.89, its lowest closing level since April 3.

However, technical analysts point out that the S&P 500 is currently in a "death cross" pattern, which is usually a signal that a short-term pullback may evolve into a long-term downtrend. When the 50-day moving average crosses down through the 200-day moving average, a death cross occurs.

History shows that this ominous signal does not necessarily mean that the stock market will face a bigger decline. The S&P 500 has fallen about 8% so far this year. Stocks will be closed during the Good Friday holiday, but some important U.S. xmserving.companies will still be released this week.

U.S. xmserving.companies have begun to announce their first quarter 2025 results, and as tariff issues are on the verge of giving too much guidance.

Ellerbroek said, "Everyone knows that the future will be quite different from the past, and the management team will be very cautious and not make too many xmserving.commitments."

Goldman Sachs shares rose 1.9% after the bank reported first-quarter profit growth. Quarterly results from xmserving.companies such as Netflix and UnitedHealth Group were also the focus of this week. Shares of some pharmaceutical xmserving.companies rose after Pfizer said it would terminate its experimental weight loss drug development, with shares rising 1% at the close.

Golden market

Gold prices fell on Monday, falling after hitting an all-time high earlier in the session as risk sentiment improved after the White House exempted high tariffs on smartphones and xmserving.computers.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,213.69 per ounce, setting an all-time high of $3,245.42 during the session. The settlement price of US gold futures fell 0.6% to $3,226.30.

Bart Melek, head of xmserving.commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "Some risk trading has caused gold prices to break away from recent highs, but the current environment is still quite favorable for gold."

Risk sentiment in financial markets has generally improved after Washington announced that it would exclude certain electronic products from President Trump's tariff range.

Peter Grant, vice president and senior metal strategist at ZanerMetals, said: "The tariffs may be eased, and tariff exemptions on some electronic products may reduce some of the demand for hedging. However, the continued uncertainty of trade and tariffsQualitative, weak dollar and falling bond yields often support gold. ”

Goldman Sachs remains the most bullish bank in gold, raising its year-end gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce, citing stronger central bank demand and intensified recession risk affecting inflows of gold ETFs.

World Gold Council (WGC) data shows that investments into China’s physical gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exceeded total inflows in the first quarter and exceeded U.S. gold ETF inflows.

Spot silver rose 0.1% to $32.27 per ounce; platinum rose 1% to $952.1 per ounce; palladium rose 4.6% to $957.27 per ounce.

Oil market

Oil prices closed slightly higher on Monday as some electronic products received U.S. tariff exemptions and data showed that imports of Asian powers rebounded sharply in March, but gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and curb fuel demand.

Brent crude futures closed up 0.2% higher at $64.88 per barrel; U.S. crude oil closed up 3 cents higher at $61.53.

U.S. President Trump said on Sunday that he would announce import tariffs on semiconductors in the xmserving.coming week, adding that he would maintain flexibility for some xmserving.companies in the industry. Meanwhile, data on Monday showed that China's crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months, boosted by a rebound in Iranian oil and Russia delivery volumes. , up nearly 5% year-on-year.

However, Brent and U.S. crude oil fell about $10 per barrel since the beginning of this month, and analysts have cut their oil price expectations as the trade war between the world's two major economies intensified. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its global oil demand growth forecast for the first time since December on Monday, citing the impact of data received in the first quarter and the U.S. trade tariffs announced.

OPEC said in its monthly report that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026. Both forecasts are down 150,000 barrels per day from last month's figures.

Goldman Sachs expects that due to the economy The risk of recession and increased supply from OPEC+ organizations is rising, with oil prices set to decline by the end of this year and next year. The bank expects Brent and U.S. crude oil prices to fall slightly, with an average of $63 and $59 per barrel for the rest of 2025, respectively, and $58 and $55 per barrel in 2026.

UBS lowered its Brent oil price forecast by $12 per barrel to $68 per barrel. JPMorgan lowered its oil price forecast for the next two years, citing increased OPEC+ production and weak demand.

Foreign market

The dollar was flat against the euro on Monday, and fell sharply last week, falling to a three-year low at one point, and from some technical indicators, the dollar is in an oversold state.

> Meanwhile, the dollar fell against the yen and the capricious tariff policy of US President Trump has damaged people's confidence in the world's reserve currency.

The US dollar has decoupled from U.S. Treasury yields, which fell last week, while U.S. Treasury yields rose. This has sparked speculation that investors are moving their investment out of the United States because they are concerned about the durability of the tariffs and their impact.

ForexLive chief currency analyst Adam Button said: "Policy is so chaotic that it makes it difficult to think about what will happen in the next 24 hours, such as how policy interest rates will change, or where the economy will go. At present, uncertainty has reached a level that most international trade xmserving.companies cannot tolerate. The question is how quickly this uncertainty will affect consumers in the real economy. At present, the market is pessimistic about the future economic growth of the United States, which is most obvious in the money market." Fed governor Waller said on Monday that the Trump administration's tariff policy has had a major impact on the U.S. economy, which may lead to the Federal Reserve's rate drop when inflation remains high to avoid a recession. The report released by the New York Fed on Monday showed that short-term inflation expectations for Americans reached their highest level since the fall of 2023 as public assessments of personal financial status and hiring prospects declined. The euro was basically flat at $1.1359 during the day, hitting $1.1473 last Friday, the highest level since February 2022.

The dollar fell 0.39% against the yen to 142.93 yen, down to 142.05 last Friday, the lowest level since September last year.

The dollar has experienced a wave of declines equivalent to four standard deviations in the past week, MacroHive CEO Bilal Hafeez said in a note Monday. “Generally, this extreme decline would signal a rebound in the U.S. dollar. But if we are experiencing a structural institutional change, like the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s, then all conventional judgments would not apply.

Trump said on Sunday that he would announce tariff rates on semiconductor imports this week, adding that some xmserving.companies in the industry would be flexible. However, U.S. xmserving.commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that these products will face new tariffs along with semiconductors in the next two months.

Nick Rees, head of macro research at MonexEurope, said: “The market is trading these uncertainties at the moment, and the conflicting news released by the U.S. government over the weekend is even worse. This does temporarily exacerbate the risk of further weakening of the dollar as markets try to circumvent this uncertainty by putting their funds into any assets outside the United States. ”

Trump also said on Monday that he may exempt some of the already implemented car-related tariffs. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan does not intend to make major concessions and will notA rush to reach a deal in upcoming tariff negotiations with the Trump administration.

Japanese Economic Regeneration Minister Ryomasa Akazawa also said that the foreign exchange issue will be handled jointly by Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bescent. The dollar fell 0.18% to CHF 0.814, while the pound rose 0.88% to CHF 1.3195. The Australian dollar rose 0.84% ​​to $0.6338, continuing its upward trend of more than 4% last week.

International News

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: Trump's policy weakens trust in U.S. and U.S. dollar assets

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Monday that she was worried that President Trump's tariffs and other policies were weakening allies' trust in U.S. xmserving.commitments, and some investors began to shy away from U.S. assets. Yellen told the media that the surge in U.S. Treasury yields last week were worrying, and given the status of U.S. Treasury as a traditional safe-haven asset, this situation has raised questions about the "corresponding stone of the global financial system - that is, the security of U.S. Treasury bonds." Yellen said she was pleased to see good results in the 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury auction last week, but she would not recommend turning to issuing more short-term bonds to cope with the rise in long-term Treasury yields. She added that it is important to issue bonds regularly and predictably to meet market demand. "So, I think it's not a smart financing strategy to turn to short-term bond issuance just because I'm upset about the rise in long-term interest rates."

Trump considers setting a 25% tariff exemption clause on imported cars and parts

U.S. President Trump said he is looking at the possibility of exempting tariffs on imported cars and parts so that auto xmserving.companies can have more time to build production bases in the United States. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, "I am considering some measures to help automakers. They are turning to parts produced in Canada, Mexico and other places, but they will take a little time because these parts will be produced in the United States in the future."

Lavrov: It is not easy for Russia and the United States to reach an agreement on the Russian-Ukrainian peace plan

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview on April 14 local time that it is not easy for Russia and the United States to reach an agreement on the key part of the xmserving.comprehensive resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. However, Russia and the United States are in talks on these issues. Lavrov also mentioned that despite the differences in interests between the two sides on most issues on the international agenda, dialogue between Russia and the United States is gradually recovering. The two sides have reached a consensus on how to restore the normal work of the embassy and simplify diplomats' actions on the other side's countries. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the same day that Russia and the United States are in the initial stage of normalizing relations and building relations.

Trump plans to impose tariffs on chips and drugs

The Trump administration in the United States launched an investigation led by the Department of xmserving.commerce, taking a decisive step towards imposing tariffs on semiconductors and drugs imports. As a prelude to the tariff imposition, these moves on MondayThe measure has the potential to expand Trump's full-scale trade war. The U.S. Department of xmserving.commerce said in two notices released in the Federal Register that it would investigate the impact of "imported semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment" and "drugs and drug ingredients, including finished drugs" on U.S. national security.

Federal Director Waller expects tariffs to have only temporary impacts on inflation

Federal Director Christopher Waller lists two scenarios of the potential impact of Trump's trade policy on the U.S. economy, but says the impact of tariffs on inflation in both scenarios may be temporary. In a speech prepared for a St. Louis event on Monday, Waller said the new tariff policy "is one of the biggest shocks to the U.S. economy in decades." "The future of this policy and its possible impact remains highly uncertain," he said. "This makes the outlook also highly uncertain and requires policy makers to remain flexible when considering various consequences."

The EU Trade xmserving.commissioner said it was ready to reach a fair agreement with the United States

EU Trade xmserving.commissioner Shevjovich said the EU was ready to reach a fair agreement with the United States, but cautioned that it would require "a great effort together". Shefjovic made the xmserving.comments after meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Greer and xmserving.commerce Secretary Lutnik in Washington. Shefjovic said that the EU is speeding up the 90-day window created by US President Trump's suspension of partial tariffs to negotiate to resolve what Trump calls unreasonable tariffs. “The EU remains constructive and is ready to reach a fair deal,” he wrote on social media platform X. He said this could include work on non-tariff barriers and action by both sides to eliminate tariffs on industrial products.

The EU will release a roadmap for stopping imports of Russian oil and gas next month

The report said that the European xmserving.commission said on Monday that it will announce a more detailed strategy next month to gradually stop importing oil and gas from Russia. The plan has been postponed twice before. In response to Russia's military operations against Ukraine in 2022, the EU has pledged to stop using Russia's fossil fuels by 2027, but the European xmserving.commission has delayed issuing a "roadmap" on how to do this. The plan originally expired last month. The agenda released on Monday shows that the European xmserving.commission will release its roadmap on May 6.

Domestic News

Shenzhen: Focus on supporting the listing and refinancing of qualified enterprises such as new energy. Recently, the Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China, in conjunction with the Shenzhen Financial Regulatory Bureau, the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau and other departments issued the "Action Plan on Coordinating the Construction of a Large-scale Green Finance Article in Shenzhen to Support the Construction of Carbon Peak Pilot Cities", which proposed to strengthen the green financing function of the multi-level capital market. Give full play to the advantages of multi-level capital market and venture capital, focus on supporting the listing and refinancing of qualified enterprises such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and high-end energy equipment, and guide the raised funds to invest in energy-saving and emission-reduction projects and greenLow-carbon transformation project. Support projects in key areas that are in line with national policy orientation and have good social benefits to carry out pilot projects of the Real Estate Investment Trust Fund (REITS) in the field of infrastructure, and provide medium- and long-term financial support for related green projects. Encourage the development of asset management products with green, low-carbon and sustainable development themes. Support the establishment of equity investment funds, venture capital funds and other private equity funds that invest in green industries and projects.

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