Oil prices hit a four-year low, U.S. Treasury yields climb, gold prices narrow, trade tensions continue to escalate

Basic news

On Wednesday (April 9, Beijing time), spot gold traded around 2985.60. As U.S. Treasury yields climbed, gold prices narrowed on Tuesday, but the weakening of the US dollar and the escalating trade tensions still brought support; U.S. crude oil fell more than 3%, trading around $57.70 per barrel, hitting a four-year low. Oil prices have intensified concerns about the recession due to global trade conflicts, overshadowing the impact of the stock market rebound.

Stock and Stock Market

The U.S. stock market S&P 500 fell sharply on Tuesday, closing below 5,000 for the first time in nearly a year. The index reversed after a strong early rise. As the midnight deadline approaches, investors' hopes for the U.S. government to delay or adjust its tariff policy gradually fade.

The index's stock index fell 1.6% on Tuesday, losing $5.8 trillion in market value since U.S. President Trump announced large-scale global tariffs on U.S. trading partners last Wednesday night. According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), this is equivalent to a drop of more than 12%, the largest four-day percentage drop since the pandemic.

Earlier Tuesday, the S&P index rose more than 4%, as investors hope Trump will soften his stance or delay the April 9 tariff deadline. But White House spokesman Levitt said Tuesday afternoon that Trump expects tariffs to take effect, although she said nearly 70 countries were in contact with hopes to start negotiations to reduce the impact of U.S. trade policy.

Lindsey Bell, chief market strategist at Clearnomics, said market participants "still optimistic this morning, thinking that it is OKThere could be signals that would push for an agreement or xmserving.compromise with major countries, or the government might announce delays in the implementation of measures as many stakeholders want to continue negotiations, and it doesn't seem like that is the case, as we're soon to reach the midnight deadline and investors are losing confidence. "

U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Tuesday that there is no expectation of exemptions to global tariffs in the near term. "People want to be optimistic, but ultimately find that they don't have a good reason, and financial reports will begin in the next few days," said Melissa Brown, managing director of investment decision-making research at SimCorp. Even if earnings in the first quarter did not decline significantly, we will see wording on the impact of many xmserving.companies on tariff expectations. "

The quarterly earnings season will kick off later this week, with JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo on Friday.

The S&P 500 index is nearly 19% lower than its record-breaking closing level on February 19, close to a confirmed bear market. It was confirmed to enter a bear market when the decline was 20%. The index fell 1.57% on Tuesday to close at 4982.77 points. The last closing below 5,000 was on April 19 last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0 .84%, closing at 37,645.59 points; the Nasdaq fell 2.15%, closing at 15,267.91 points.

The CBOE volatility index, considered the Wall Street "Fear Index", rebounded again after falling to 36.48 points earlier in the day, closing at 52.33 points, the highest closing level since March 2020, rising for the fourth consecutive day.

Radical tariffs on the United States may stimulate inflation and hinder global economic growth The concerns have led some to think the Fed may soon cut interest rates. But San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said Tuesday afternoon that the Fed should not rush to adjust interest rates amid a strong economy and the impact of the Trump administration’s new policy is unclear. Gold prices narrowed on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields climbed, but weaker U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions still brought support. Spot gold rose 0.1% to 2,984 per ounce. $16, up 1.3% at the beginning of the session. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.5% higher and settled at $2990.20.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest week, making the attractiveness of interest-free gold less.

Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, said: "Despite the decline for three consecutive trading days, gold remains bullish, with trade tensions and the prospect of falling U.S. interest rates boosting attractiveness. If it can break through $3,055 firmly, it may open the door to $3,100 and $3,130. If the weakness continues to fall below $3,000, gold may slide to $2,950 and $2,930. "

Investors are currently waiting for the latest Fed's latest policy meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday to find moreThere are many clues about the path to interest rate cuts. Traders believe the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in May is about 40%.

Spot silver fell 0.8% to $29.86 per ounce; platinum rose 0.2% to $914.83; palladium fell 1.3% to $906.75.

Oil market

Oil prices closed down more than $1 on Tuesday, hitting a four-year low for the session. Global trade conflicts have intensified concerns about the recession and overshadowed the impact of the stock market rebound.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 2.16%, with a settlement price of $62.82 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures closed down 1.85% and settled at $59.58. Brent crude oil futures fell by more than $2 earlier.

Alex Hodes, director of marketing strategy at financial services firm StoneX, said in a report that tariffs have led to a global recession situation and concerns about a decline in energy demand.

Goldman Sachs predicts that in different situations, by December 2025, Brent and U.S. crude oil prices will be $62 and $58 per barrel, respectively, and $55 and $51 a year later, respectively.

Trump also unexpectedly announced on Monday that the United States and Iran would have a direct dialogue on Tehran's nuclear program, but the Iranian foreign minister said the talks would be indirect.

A preliminary survey by Reuters on Monday showed that U.S. crude and distillate stocks are expected to rise by about 1.6 million barrels last week, indicating weak demand. The American Petroleum Association (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release inventory data later and Wednesday, respectively.

Foreign exchange market

The euro rose on Tuesday after it was reported that relevant German political parties had agreed to form a ruling coalition, and the dollar weakened against major currencies. Conservatives led by German CDU President Mertz reached a deal with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) on Tuesday. But two people familiar with the matter denied to Reuters that they had reached an agreement.

Investors have been paying attention to the trade dispute caused by US President Trump's xmserving.comprehensive tariff policy, and the relevant news has caused market turmoil for three consecutive days. The euro rose 0.52% against the US dollar to $1.0958 at the end of the trading session, after falling continuously for two consecutive days.

The yen and Swiss franc continue to benefit from safe-haven appetite, and investors remain concerned about the possibility of a global recession.

The US dollar fell 1% against the yen to 146.30 yen and fell 1.48% against the Swiss franc to 0.84780 CHF. Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street Securities, said the dollar's poor performance against other currencies was partly due to fears of a recession caused by tariffs.

The currencies that usually perform well when stocks rise also rebounded, with the pound rising 0.44% against the dollar. The Australian dollar fell 0.36% against the dollar after giving up earlier gains. Both fell in the first two trading days.

On Tuesday, investors received aThese positive signals about tariff consultations. Finance Minister Besent; said on Monday that he hopes negotiations can reduce tariffs. Trump said Japan will send a team to start the conversation, which has driven Japanese stock market to rise overnight.

The three major Wall Street indexes all closed down, giving up their earlier gains, and fell sharply after Trump announced the increase in tariffs last week. Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed up 6.03% during the Asian period.

Loh added: "Looking back on the past week, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were not as violent as they thought, given the stock market trend."

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.48% to 102.92. The dollar index has fallen about 0.7% since Trump announced the tariffs on April 2, with investors weighing the blow to the U.S. economy and the usual role of the dollar as a safe-haven asset when the market is down.

International News

Trump signed a series of executive orders to promote coal development

U.S. President Trump signed four executive orders related to coal. Trump aides said the first executive order would direct all agencies to end all discriminatory policies against the coal industry. The second order will instruct the suspension of the coal-fired power plant. The third order concerns the reliability of the power grid. The fourth order involves (to confront) Democratic states that oppose coal policy.

JPMorgan Chase Model: Small-cap stock index shows that the probability of a recession in the United States is close to 80%.

JPMorgan Chase said that the probability of a recession digested by stocks closely related to the U.S. economy has soared to nearly 80%. Meanwhile, while financial pressures may intensify, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan’s market-based recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which has suffered a hard time in its recent sell-off, currently reflects a 79% chance of a recession. Other asset classes are also warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a 62% chance of a recession, a 68% chance of a base metal, and a 54% chance of a 5-year U.S. Treasury. By xmserving.comparison, the probability of an economic recession digested by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, xmserving.compared with zero in November last year.

The space for increasing US tariffs is expected to be limited, and the lower limit of the US Treasury Secretary can only reach the lower limit of the range of US Treasury Secretary

The latest forecast shows that the intensified tariffs by US President Trump will lead to a decline in US trade, which may restrict the additional fiscal revenue that the federal government can expect to obtain. Economic research analysis shows that all relevant taxes Trump has imposed since January and have threatened to generate approximately $300 billion in annual revenue. This is at the low end of the range of US$300 billion to US$600 billion given by US Treasury Secretary Scott Becent. The low figures reflect expectations for a sharp decline in trade. According to the economic research model, due to tariffs, the total U.S. imports of goods are expected to fall by about 30%.

White House spokesperson: Nearly 70 countries have taken the initiative to contact and seek to reach a tariff agreement

White House spokesman Levitt said Tuesday that nearly 70 countries have reached out to the White House to hope to negotiate a reduction in the impact of President Trump's tariff policy. Levitt told reporters that an agreement would be reached if it benefits American workers and resolves the long-term trade deficit. Trump instructed his team to develop “tailored agreements” for each country they contacted.

The German Alliance Party and the Social Democratic Party reached an agreement on the cabinet formation agreement

On the evening of April 8 local time, the German Alliance Party and the Social Democratic Party reached an agreement on the cabinet formation agreement. The Coalition Party, xmserving.composed of the Christian Democratic League and the Christian Social League, won the Bundestag election on February 23. On March 8, the Alliance Party held exploratory talks with the Social Democratic Party (Social Democratic Party) and the first step to form a "Black and Red Alliance" government (Note: the color of the Alliance Party is black, and the color of the Social Democratic Party is red) has been taken.

The White House said that the United States will hold direct talks with Iran on April 12

On the 8th local time, the White House press secretary said that the United States will hold direct talks with Iran on April 12. Recently, Trump has repeatedly claimed that he would "bomb" Iran if an agreement cannot be reached with Iran on the Iran nuclear issue. On the 7th local time, Trump said after meeting with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House that the United States and Iran are in "direct" negotiations on the Iran nuclear issue. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragzi posted a statement in the early morning of the 8th that Iran and the United States will hold "indirect" high-level negotiations in Oman on the 12th.

Russia and the United States will hold the next round of consultations in Istanbul on April 10

On the 8th local time, diplomatic sources said that Russia and the United States will hold the next round of consultations in Istanbul, Turkey on April 10. Earlier that day, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that the Russian and US delegations will hold talks in Istanbul in the near future and will discuss issues such as restoring the normal work of their respective embassies.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister said he had stated his position on the Ukrainian mineral agreement: it should be mutually beneficial

On April 8 local time, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sebiga said that Ukraine has stated its position on the mineral resources agreement with the United States, including Ukraine's vision of the text of the agreement. Sebiga said that Ukraine has determined the xmserving.composition of the negotiation team and the team will go to Washington soon to conduct substantive consultations on the text of the agreement proposed by the US side. Sebi emphasized that the future agreement should be mutually beneficial, should be in the interests of both parties, and should not contradict Ukraine's process of integration into Europe, which is one of Ukraine's principled positions. In addition, he said that the delegation to Washington would include representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Domestic News

Repurchase increases and increase returns, hundreds of xmserving.companies are protecting the market well

Influenced by the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy in the United States, the whole xmserving.company has recently been fully protected.The volatility of the ball market is intensifying. Against this background, on April 8, central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and listed xmserving.companies intensively issued plans or progress to increase holdings, repurchase, asset injection, and increase dividend ratio, collectively boosting investor confidence. Many listed xmserving.companies even rarely stated that they would "accelerate repurchase" and "accelerate holdings", which fully reflects their firm determination to safeguard the value of listed xmserving.companies. According to rough statistics from the reporter, from April 7 to 8 pm on April 8, nearly 100 xmserving.companies in the two cities issued plans to increase their holdings, and more than 200 xmserving.companies issued plans to repurchase plans or progress, totaling more than 300.

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