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If Canada’s unemployment rate soars again, will USD/CAD go straight to the 1.42 mark?

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Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows of parting, and since ancient times, there have been sad songs about the moon. It’s just that we never understood it and thought everything was just a distant memory. Because without real experience, there is no deep inner feeling.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: If Canada's unemployment rate soars again, will the US dollar/Canadian dollar go straight to the 1.42 mark?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

November 7, Friday. USD/CAD was trading at 1.4109 before the U.S. market opened. The overnight foreign exchange market continued the pattern of high fluctuations after the re-evaluation of the interest rate path. The US dollar was generally stronger but the momentum was no longer unilateral, and risk appetite remained cautious. The current market focus turns to Canada's October employment data released at 21:30 tonight; before the data is released, the price difference is intertwined with expectations, which may increase the volatility of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar at high levels.

From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve’s xmserving.communication after the latest interest rate meeting was hawkish, which drove U.S. bond yields to rise in the early stage, and the U.S. dollar found support in the major currency basket. The overall resilience of high-frequency data in the United States this week remains: the private employment indicator is better than expected, and the price index in the service PMI sub-item refreshed a stage high, showing that the stickiness of service inflation is still there. It is worth noting that under the narrative of "strong data", the US dollar did not further increase its gains, and the market showed the characteristics of "it is difficult to rise in the short term after all the good news", which is often interpreted as one of the periodic top signals. The repricing of interest rate swaps also shows that the implied probability of an interest rate cut in December is about 60% or more; within this framework, although the dollar bulls have not turned, new catalysts are needed to advance the trend.

The macro narrative on the Canadian side revolves around slowing growth and policy shifts. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week as expected and brought the policy rate to the lower edge of its estimated neutral range. At the same time, it sent a signal that "it may be nearing the end of the interest rate cutting cycle", but it still emphasized data orientation and flexible response when necessary. In the October employment report released today, the market unanimously expects a slight negative increase in employment (a decrease of about 2,500 people), and the unemployment rate remains at a high of 7.1%, which is the peak level since July 2021. IfThis will now further reflect the cooling of the labor market. In terms of wages, the average hourly wage growth in September was about 3.6% year-on-year. If the slowdown continues this month, it will weaken the stickiness of inflation and the support of real income, thereby increasing the market's imagination for further easing.

Superimposing the above two macro clues on the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, the relative advantage of interest rate differentials and growth is still biased towards the US dollar, but the marginal driver xmserving.comes from the relative change of "the United States may not be stronger, weaken or remain weak". If subsequent US data does not provide new upward momentum, and Canadian employment data weakens at the same time, the market may be more like "the passive strength of the US dollar plus the active weakness of the Canadian dollar", thus maintaining the high range. On the contrary, once Canadian employment recovers more than expected, the unemployment rate falls or wages accelerate, the market may revise down its bets on additional interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, and the expected convergence of interest rate differentials will promote a phased recovery of the Canadian dollar.

To further break down today’s scenario: If the number of jobs becomes negative again and the unemployment rate rises, while wages slow down month-on-month or year-on-year, the market will interpret this as another evidence of a cooling labor market. The Bank of Canada’s forward guidance of “cutting interest rates again if necessary” will be interpreted more positively. The Canadian dollar will be under pressure, and interest rate differential support will push up the relative premium of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. If employment turns positive, the unemployment rate falls or wages accelerate, the scenario switches to "loose marginal convergence", the Canadian dollar gets a breather, and re-pricing at the short end of the yield curve may drive prices back down. If the data shows differentiation, for example, employment turns positive but wages fall, or employment weakens but the unemployment rate remains flat, the market is more likely to fluctuate widely, and we will wait for North American data next week to provide a clearer direction.

The dynamics of interest rate expectations remain one of the core clues. The current market gives a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by the end of the year, but whether the U.S. dollar can continue to benefit depends on whether the relative advantages of interest rate differentials and growth are still there. As long as the stickiness of service inflation does not significantly ease, the downside space for U.S. short-term real interest rates is limited, and the dollar's medium-term support remains. As for Canada, if employment weakens and price pressures fall in parallel, investors will tend to believe that the policy range that "has reached or is about to reach neutral to loose" is still safe, which will limit the rise in long-term yields and provide insufficient structural support for the Canadian dollar. Under the balance of the two phases, the fluctuations of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar are more driven by the xmserving.combination of "short-end interest rate differentials + data surprises".

Technical aspects

The hourly chart of USD/CAD shows that 1.4139 fell to 1.4089 under pressure and then consolidated sideways near 1.4100. 1.4070 is the key retracement level since the upward trend. The MACD column narrowed in negative value and then turned flat. The fast and slow lines are close to each other, and the kinetic energy is weak and there is no clear divergence. RSI has fallen back from the high to the 40-45 range, overbought has been released, and the rhythm has turned to shock. If it continues to be blocked between 1.4130 and 1.4140, the upper pressure band is effective and the probability of maintaining the range is high; if it breaks below 1.4089 and approaches 1.4070, the bullish short-term structure will weaken; on the contrary, if the volume crosses above and stabilizes above 1.4140, it will point to a higher range. Currently 1.4109, located in the middle of the range, with limited directional signals.

AboveThe content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: If Canada's unemployment rate soars again, will USD/CAD go straight to the 1.42 mark?" The entire content is carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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If Canada’s unemployment rate soars again, will USD/CAD go straight to the 1.42 mark?

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