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The Fed's hawks and doves are arguing fiercely, and the "data black hole" in the United States continues to expand. When will the government shutdown farce end?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The Fed's hawks and doves are arguing fiercely, the US "data black hole" continues to expand, when will the government shutdown farce end?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
In the past week, market risk appetite has cooled significantly due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, private sector employment reports showing a cooling labor market, and cracks in the AI valuation bubble.
U.S. stocks rebounded in a V-shape on Friday as signs emerged during the session that U.S. lawmakers were expected to reach an agreement to end the government shutdown. The S&P 500 and the Dow turned higher in late trading, but the Nasdaq still closed down 0.21%, dragged down by a pullback in technology stocks, marking its worst weekly performance since April.
After data showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than three years, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged during the session, but then quickly recovered and still closed higher on the day. The U.S. dollar index fell for three days in a row, erasing all gains so far this month.
In terms of xmserving.commodities, supported by the weakening of the US dollar and the return of risk aversion, international spot gold ended its two-week losing streak and is still hovering near the US$4,000 mark. International crude oil rose on Friday, off two-week lows, but still posted a second consecutive weekly decline as the market continued to weigh the threat to Russian oil production from Western sanctions and a looming supply glut.
In the xmserving.coming week, the market will still pay attention to the progress of the U.S. government shutdown and the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The ongoing government shutdown could mean delays in the release of more economic data.
Foreign exchange market:The US dollar index showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. In the first half of the week, the U.S. index continued last week's gains and strongly broke through the 100 mark, setting a three-month high. Then it fell below the 100-point mark again on Thursday. Private sector employment signals are confusing, and many Federal Reserve officials have called for caution in cutting interest rates. Friday's U.S. dollar indexIt closed at 99.54, the first decline in three weeks.
Gold Market: The precious metals market continues to fluctuate violently. Gold was under pressure due to the strong US dollar and once fell below the $3,930 mark, its lowest level in the past month. Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday as investors reassessed the prospect of interest rate cuts and avoided risks in U.S. stocks, but overall remained weak. Silver has a similar trend, with a significantly wider range of fluctuations, and has repeatedly fluctuated between $47 and $49 for many consecutive days. This week, spot gold and silver closed at US$4,001.39/oz and US$48.35/oz respectively, down 0.05% and 0.68% respectively.
Crude oil market: The crude oil market continues its downward trend. Although OPEC+ plans to suspend production increases in 2026 to provide short-term support, the market is still focused on the real pressure of weak factory activity in Asia and rising global inventories. Both oil prices ended lower for four consecutive sessions and posted losses for the second consecutive week.
This week’s news review Employment and layoffs coexist, official data is absent, and the Fed’s interest rate cut is controversial. The U.S. federal government is shut down, and official data such as initial jobless claims and non-farm payrolls are missing. The state of the job market needs to be explored from private sector data. ADP data showed that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, and the job market showed signs of stabilizing; however, challenger xmserving.company layoff reports showed that employers announced 153,000 layoffs in October, a year-on-year surge of 175% and a month-on-month increase of 183%, the highest level in October since 2003. In the data vacuum, there is fierce debate within the Federal Reserve over whether to cut interest rates in December. Governor Milan believes that the current interest rates are too high and advocates multiple interest rate cuts to return to neutral levels; Governor Cook said that the policy debate is like a tug of war, with employment and inflation risks coexisting; San Francisco Fed President Daley is open to action in December; Chicago Fed President Goolsby is skeptical due to lack of inflation data They are cautious about cutting interest rates; Cleveland Fed President Hammack prefers to wait and see, believing that interest rate cuts may intensify the risk of inflation; New York Fed President Williams said that the United States is in a period of low neutral interest rates, emphasizing that actual data is more instructive; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson also said that future interest rate cuts need to be cautious. At the same time, pressure on the U.S. money market continues. The Federal Reserve plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1. If funds are tight, it may take stronger measures to stabilize market liquidity. The U.S. government shutdown has set a new record, with flights cut and food relief blocked The length of the U.S. federal government's "shutdown" continues to set new records. The differences between the plans of the Republican and Democratic parties have caused negotiations to be in trouble, and the impact of the shutdown has expanded. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that economic losses from the shutdown will reach $11 billion for six weeks and $14 billion for eight weeks. The aviation sector has been affected. Flight operations at 40 major airports have been reduced by 10%, involving 1,800 flights and 268,000 seats. About 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 security personnel are working without pay. The absenteeism rate at some airports exceeds 30%. Food relief programs are also in trouble, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program"Program" has suspended relief benefits since November 1, affecting about 42 million people. A district judge ordered that this month's food aid program be fully funded. Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are questioned, and the Supreme Court may rule in a few weeks This week, the U.S. Supreme Court debated Trump's tariff policy. Among the nine justices, only Justice Alito supported it, and the rest The justices questioned its legality. The central dispute in this trial is whether Trump's invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to impose tariffs on almost all trading partners will take at least several weeks or even months to rule on. After three federal district courts ruled that Trump's tariffs are illegal, the Trump administration may still invoke other laws to implement tariff policies. However, the speed and extent of implementation may be limited. Trump called the impact of losing the case "extremely damaging" and admitted for the first time that the cost of tariffs may be borne partly by American consumers. He also said that new tariffs will not be announced during the Supreme Court hearing. The Democratic Party won an overall victory in local elections and focused on economic issues The US Democratic Party won an overwhelming victory in this week's local elections. Winning key positions such as mayor of New York City, governor of New Jersey, and governor of Virginia. The three elected candidates focused on economic issues, especially the cost of living, and attracted support from different voters. The election results showed that the Democratic Party's focus on economic issues and criticism of Trump's policies were effective. More than one-third of voters said that opposition to Trump was an important factor in their vote. For the Republican Party, this election is a warning and an early signal for the 2026 midterm elections. Trump blames the Democratic victory on the government shutdown and puts pressure on the Republican Party. Trump has disagreements on Venezuela’s actions and military build-up to put pressure. According to US officials, Trump has reservations about military strikes on Venezuela and is worried that he will not be able to force it. To unseat Maduro. On Thursday, two U.S. military B-52H strategic bombers flew within the flight information area of Maitia, just 70 kilometers off the coast of Venezuela. The United States is massing military forces in the Caribbean, with the goal of increasing pressure on Maduro. Trump asked aides about military options, and for now is content to slowly build up troops in the region and continue to crack down on drug-smuggling ships. There are different opinions within the Trump administration on whether to escalate the action. It was previously reported that the government is evaluating various military action options, and the U.S. Department of Justice is trying to find a legal basis for military action. The United States updates the list of critical minerals and seeks cooperation with Central Asia. The U.S. government updated the list of critical minerals this week, adding 10 new minerals, including copper, silver, and uranium, bringing the total to 60 types. , aimed at promoting domestic mining development and reducing dependence on foreign minerals. The new list will affect federal investment, project licensing decisions, and tariff policies. The Interior Minister said the new list provides a roadmap for reducing dependence on foreign opponents and expanding domestic production, but environmentalists criticized the government for ignoring economic laws and laws. In addition, U.S. President Trump met with leaders of five Central Asian countries to seek key mineral cooperation.cooperation to solve supply chain problems, which also reflects the strategic layout of the United States in Central Asian resources and geopolitics. Tesla approves Musk’s xmserving.compensation plan worth one trillion U.S. dollars, with a target market value of 8.5 trillion. Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting approved Musk’s xmserving.compensation plan worth approximately 1 trillion U.S. dollars, pointing the way for him to become the world’s first trillionaire. Musk revealed that Tesla’s fully autonomous driving function has been partially approved in China and is expected to be fully approved in February or March 2026. Musk needs to lead Tesla to increase its market value from US$2 trillion to US$8.5 trillion, while also achieving goals such as the cumulative delivery of 20 million vehicles and the number of FSD subscriptions reaching 1 million. In addition, Tesla needs to achieve adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of US$50 billion to US$400 billion for four consecutive quarters. Reaching the goal would more than quintuple Musk's net worth and exceed the current gross domestic product of all but seven countries. The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The Fed's hawks and doves are arguing fiercely, the "data black hole" in the United States continues to expand, when will the government shutdown farce end?", which was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor, I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support! After doing something, there will always be experiences and lessons learned. In order to facilitate future work, the experience and lessons of past work must be analyzed, researched, summarized, concentrated, and understood at a theoretical level.
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