Expectations of interest rate cuts are ignited, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 17

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures rose 0.07%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.07%. The German DAX index rose 0.04%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.23%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.24%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.10%.

2. Interpretation of market news

Expectations of interest rate cuts have exploded! U.S. mortgage refinancing soared to a three-year high

⑴ Last week, the interest rate of the U.S. 30-year mortgage contract fell by 10 basis points, hitting its lowest point in nearly a year. This downward interest rate directly stimulated a surge in refinancing business volume. Data from the American Mortgage Bankers Association shows that its refinancing activity index has climbed to its highest level since early 2022. ⑵The home purchase loan application index also recorded an increase, and the overall mortgage activity index hit a new high in more than three years. The three-week downward trend in interest rates has brought new impetus to the previously sluggish growth real estate market. ⑶ The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will start a cycle of interest rate cuts in the next few months. The continued decline in mortgage interest rates is expected to reignite demand from home buyers and encourage more homeowners to list and sell their homes, further activate the real estate market.

The EU is xmserving.committed to strengthening relations with India to diversify its trading partners

The EU is xmserving.committed to strengthening its relations with India, with its core goal of diversifying its trading partners and expanding its global influence. Brussels reiterates that it plans toA free trade agreement was reached with India this year. The statement pointed out that the two sides are "exploring the establishment of an EU-India security and defense partnership." The EU's move to deepen relations with India follows EU Trade xmserving.commissioner Maros Sefcovic's visit to New Delhi last week. Meanwhile, the EU is facing pressure from the United States, which requires the EU to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil.

The EU and Indonesia xmserving.completed trade agreement negotiations. It was officially announced on September 23

After nearly ten years of negotiations, the EU and Indonesia have xmserving.completed trade agreement negotiations. European xmserving.commission spokesman Olof Gill said EU Trade xmserving.commissioner Maros Sefcovic will visit Indonesia on September 23 to officially announce the news.

Amazon invests more than $1 billion to raise wages and reduce health care costs

Amazon is investing more than $1 billion to raise wages and reduce health care costs for fulfilling and transporting employees in the United States. Amazon said the average hourly wage will increase to more than $23, and if included in the value of the benefit package, the hourly wage will exceed $30. Starting from 2026, the health insurance plan costs for all employees will be reduced from over $7 per week to $5, and the total payment for doctors to visit will be reduced from $40 to $5.

76-year-old Dalio starts a new chapter in his career: xmserving.completely withdrawing from Bridgewater Fund’s personal management of family office investment

Bridgewater Fund founder Dalio has taken over investment management in his family office. At the same time, he has xmserving.completed a long-planned plan - withdrawing from the hedge fund that has created billions of dollars in wealth for him. Dalio, 76, has recently xmserving.completely cut off his last connection with Bridgewater Fund and opened a new chapter in his career. The former xmserving.commodity trader founded Bridgewater in 1975 in a two-bedroom apartment in New York and turned it into the world's largest hedge fund. The Dalio Family Office recently issued a recruitment notice, planning to recruit investment personnel for a "small" global macro team, who will work "closely" with the American billionaire; the team strategy will continue Dalio's thinking during the Bridgewater Fund period, and this recruitment will further expand its rapidly growing workforce over the past decade

The U.S. Treasury Secretary's real estate document is in a "double main residence" controversy and is surprisingly similar to the reason Cook was removed

⑴ Mortgage document shows that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent had listed two different properties as his "main residences", and this contradictory promise is exactly the same as the reasons cited by Trump when he tried to remove Fed Director Cook. ⑵ Despite such inconsistencies in documentary, several mortgage experts pointed out that there is currently no sign of any misconduct in Becente, and such circumstances may not directly prove the existence of fraud. ⑶Becente's lawyer Alex Spiro said that due to the lack of detailed study of Cook's specific situation, it is impossible to xmserving.comment on the similarities and differences between the two people's situations.

Bestert once listed two properties asThe "main residence" is consistent with the reasons for Cook's removal

Mortal loan documents show that US Treasury Secretary Bescent had agreed to list two different properties as his "main residence" at the same time - this conflicting promise is exactly the same as the reasons Trump cited when he tried to remove Fed Director Cook. But mortgage experts say there is no sign of any misconduct at this time. Instead, his case shows that inconsistencies in housing loan documents may not necessarily prove fraud. Alex Spiro, Becente's lawyer, said that due to the lack of detailed study of Cook's specific situation, it was impossible to xmserving.comment on the similarities and differences between the two people's situations.

Afghan dry fruit exports meet EU standards, and food safety training opens the door to high-end markets

⑴ Food safety standards training jointly sponsored by institutions and the EU was successfully held in Kabul from September 15 to 16, aiming to improve the access capacity of Afghan food exports to high-end markets such as the EU. The training focused on dry fruits and nuts, attracting key stakeholders such as the Afghan Chamber of xmserving.commerce, the Afghan Women's Chamber of xmserving.commerce, Afghan exporters and food safety experts. ⑵ Training activities introduce Afghan producers to key international and European food safety standards necessary to enter high-end markets such as the EU and highlight the need for private sector investment in quality assurance and certification throughout the entire food supply chain from farm to table. The event helps participants avoid export rejection due to xmserving.common problems such as pesticide residues and allergens by imparting practical knowledge. ⑶ Data shows that Afghan exports in 2024 reached US$1.8 billion, of which the export volume of fruits and nuts was US$590 million. Although the current trade volume with the EU is still modest, Afghanistan has great potential in expanding market access by improving food safety xmserving.compliance. ⑷ Veronika BoskovicPohar, the interim office of the EU delegation to Afghanistan, said that the EU is xmserving.committed to helping Afghanistan develop a strong and sustainable food industry. By investing in food safety and quality, it can not only protect consumers, but also empower Afghan producers to enter new high-value markets. ⑸ Mutinta Chimuka, Deputy Country Director of the United Nations World Food Programme in Afghanistan, stressed that the World Food Programme is unswervingly xmserving.committed to strengthening the Afghan food industry and improving food safety standards, and building an effective institutional and regulatory framework is crucial to ensuring food safety and keeping the private sector in line with international benchmarks. The EU delegation to Afghanistan also plans to conduct training on product standards in other economic fields in the future to enter international markets.

Focus on Powell's signal: Where will the Fed cut interest rates go?

⑴The market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its meeting on Wednesday, driven by the recent slowdown in employment growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had hinted last month that he would prioritize employment over ongoing inflation concerns. However, the decision to cut interest rates may not be passed unanimously, and some officials may tend to cut interest rates on a larger scale, or evenNo interest rate cuts. ⑵ The key concern will be whether the Fed will indicate further rate cuts in the future. In its quarterly economic forecast, Powell and colleagues may foreshadow a total of three rate cuts in 2025, or maintain its expectations for two rate cuts proposed in June. ⑶In addition, the possible objections at this meeting are worth paying attention to. At the July meeting, two directors - Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller - expressed objection to the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Whether they will raise objections again this time, believing that more radical interest rate cuts should be taken is a key issue. ⑷ The voting trends of the new director will also be the focus. Stephen Milan, the economic adviser to the U.S. President, has been confirmed by the Senate this week as the latest Fed director. Whether he will support the consensus of the central bank or will push for a more radical interest rate cut as some analysts expected has attracted much attention.

The hidden mystery of pound options: the shadow of fiscal risks has not dissipated

⑴This week, the implicit volatility of pound/dollar options rose again, which is consistent with the weakening trend of the US dollar. It is worth noting, however, that these gains emerged after the highs in early September fell. ⑵The initial gain xmserving.comes as the pound fell due to intensified fiscal concerns in the UK. Although these concerns have eased recently and the pound has rebounded with it, its potential impact has not disappeared. ⑶ As of 2026, options expiration still show volatility and bearish tendency towards the pound. The market demand for options from the first to the second quarter of 2026 continues to exist, especially the pound put options. ⑷ The budget announcement of the British Treasury Department is scheduled to be released in November 2026, and is expected to set the tone for the long-term trend of the pound. Current data show that market participants are alert to future volatility of the pound and are seeking tools to avoid potential downside risks.

The premium of the Middle East crude oil benchmark fell continuously, and the regional supply pattern changed

⑴ The spot premium of the Middle East crude oil benchmark Oman, Dubai and Murban continued to decline on Wednesday, as the increase in supply flow to Asia in other regions continued to put pressure. Strong recent prices have prompted buyers to turn to alternatives such as Brazilian and West African grade crude oil. ⑵ Cash Dubai's premium to swap contracts fell 22 cents to $2.92 a barrel. Tok will deliver a batch of UpperZakum crude oil to NPI, which will be shipped in November. Mokori delivered three batches of UpperZakum crude oil loaded in November to Gonwall, ExxonMobil and Vito. ⑶ Trading data shows that the transaction prices of multiple shipment crude oil in November are concentrated in the range of US$70.60 to US$70.69 per barrel. xmserving.companies involved include Mocory, Gomwal, Vidor, Tok, PetroChina, ExxonMobil, BP and Mitsui Products. ⑷ Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft warned producers that could cut production as Ukrainian drones hit key export ports and refineries. OPEC+ representatives plan to meet in Vienna on Thursday and Friday to discuss the methodology for the assessment of the maximum production capacity of 22 member states.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, Euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1837, a drop of 0.26%. Before New York, the (Euro-USD) price fell from its four-year high to collect the gains from its previous rise, which could help it recover and rise again, and it is trying to get rid of the overbought situation of the relative strength indicator, especially as the main bullish trend dominates and its trading is accompanied by the main and secondary trend lines, from which negative signals emerge.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen, now at 1.3645, an increase of 0.00%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) prices fell in the last trade at the intraday level after reaching our previous target of 1.3665 to collect the gains of their previous rises, trying to obtain bullish momentum that could help break through that resistance, and trying to get rid of the obvious overbought conditions of the relative strength indicators, especially as their negative signals emerge. With the continued dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50, and with the dominant bullish trend, it trades along the primary and secondary support trend lines of that trend.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3670.30, a drop of 0.52%. Before New York, the (gold) price fell on the last trading day, trying to find upward lows as a basis may help it get the bullish momentum it needs to recover to break the small bullish trend line at the intraday level, which puts it under temporary pressure, which expands its correction losses.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 41.721, a decrease of 1.94%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) deepened its losses at its last day level, breaking the short-term bullish trend line, which puts it under negative pressure, especially after its EMA50 support is broken, indicating that the bearish correction wave will continue during the upcoming period, especially the negative signals on the relative strength indicators, although reaching an oversold level, appearing very exaggerated xmserving.compared to the price trend.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 64.180, a drop of 0.53%. Before New York City, crude oil prices fell on the last trading day, trying to obtain potentially helping its recovery andThe bullish momentum is rising again and trying to unload some obvious overbought conditions on the relative strength indicators, especially with the emergence of negative signals from these indicators, relied on the key support of $53.65 and supported it to collect positive forces while being affected by the formation of short-term positive technology (double bottom mode), which strengthens the opportunity for prices to recover on a near-term basis.

4. Institutional view

Rabobank: European natural gas prices may stabilize at the high range of 20 euros from the second quarter of next year

Rabobank analyst Florence Schmit said that thanks to the start of production of new liquefied natural gas capacity, it is expected that from the second quarter of next year, European natural gas prices will stabilize at the high range of more than 20 euros per megawatt-hour. The energy strategist pointed out: "European natural gas supply is undergoing a structural change - the core feature is a decrease in dependence on pipeline natural gas and an increase in dependence on liquefied natural gas, which brings new vulnerability. Energy security in the continental Europe will increasingly depend on global liquefied natural gas market dynamics, weather changes and infrastructure bottlenecks, which makes natural gas price stability more sensitive to external shocks than pre-war periods." Rabobank said that the scale of new liquefied natural gas production capacity to be put into production is considerable, and the production capacity of the United States alone will increase by 8%, driving the global annual liquefied natural gas production capacity to be about 34 million tons. Currently, the price of the European natural gas benchmark, the Netherlands TTF natural gas futures contract is hovering above 32 euros per megawatt-hour.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The expectation of interest rate cuts has exploded, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 17". It was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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