OPEC+ decides to further increase production, upset non-agricultural sectors to strengthen Fed rate cut expectations, gold prices may open above 3,600

Basic news

On Monday (September 8, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,588/ounce. The upset non-agricultural data strengthened the Fed's expectation of a rate hike. The probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September was 100%, of which the probability of a 50 basis point cut was 8%, providing support for the gold price; US crude oil trading was around $62.09/barrel, weak non-agricultural data weakened the outlook for energy demand, and OPEC+ decided to further increase production over the weekend, exacerbating the risk of oversupply.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed slightly lower last Friday, with investors weighing between economic worries and optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve's possible rate cut, after data released showed that U.S. job growth slowed sharply in August.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48% to 45,400.86 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.32% to 6,481.50 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.03% to 21,700.39 points. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%.

Bank stocks ranked the top in the decline, with the S&P 500 bank stock index closing down 2.4%. Chip maker Broadcom rose 9.4%, offsetting the overall market decline to some extent. The day before, the xmserving.company announced that it had received a $10 billion order for artificial intelligence chips from new customers, and its fourth-quarter revenue forecast was higher than market expectations.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of non-farm jobs increased by only 22,000 in August, far below the market expectations of 75,000, confirming that the labor market is cooling.

The three major stock indexes rose and hit record highs after the data was released. Futures traders linked to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate have increased their bets on continuous interest rate cuts this month. The market is even considering the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September. The closing levels of the three major indexes are far lower than the intraday highs.

Pete Mulmat, CEO of IGNorthAmerica, the parent xmserving.company of tastytrade, said that it is not enough to shake the market now to rely on a bad piece of data.

With the background of interest rate outlook becoming the focus, U.S. stock market investors will pay close attention to the inflation data that will be released. The US CPI will be released on Thursday.

Bill Merz, head of capital market research at Bank of America Asset Management, said the employment report confirms that the labor market is slowing and provides a basis for the Fed to cut interest rates at this month's meeting. The labor market will remain an important indicator to observe the direction of the economy, but so far, consumer spending has surprised many despite the slowdown in employment. ”

Bank of America Global Research also adjusted its interest rate expectations after the data was released, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December.

According to calculations by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the U.S. interest rate futures market currently expects a 7% chance of a 50 basis point cut at its Sept. 16-17 meeting and a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

Rate cut expectations boosted the real estate sector, which closed 1%; the Philadelphia Housing Index jumped 2.1%. Yoga Apparel maker Lululemon Athletica fell 18.6%, and the xmserving.company lowered its annual profit expectations for the second time in a row.

Gold market

Last Friday, the strong rise in gold had new momentum, with gold approaching $3,600 per ounce, and spot gold rose 1.4% to 3,596.55 per ounce last Friday The dollar, gold price hit its strongest weekly gain in nearly four months, with U.S. gold futures for December delivery closing 1.3% higher at $3,653.30.

The price of gold has soared 37% this year after rising 27% in 2024.

Data shows that U.S. employment growth weakened significantly in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, confirming that Labor The dynamic market conditions are weakening. Traders are currently betting on a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said gold hit new highs repeatedly; bulls are paying attention to a trend of significantly weakening employment translates into multiple rate cuts, and the prospects for gold are undoubtedly bullish as labor market concerns overwhelm inflation in the short-term (probably medium-term) period. "

Analysts also noted that the FedIndependence is a key factor in gold's movement -- a question that has become the focus after U.S. President Donald Trump tried to fire Fed Director Cook and repeatedly pressured the Fed to lower interest rates.

Non-profit gold often shines when interest rates are low and uncertainty is high, becoming the first choice asset for investors seeking safety.

China and India are major gold consumer countries. As gold prices hit new highs, physical demand for gold in the two centers fell last week.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.8% to $40.98 per ounce, moving towards a third straight week of upside. Platinum rose 0.5% to $1,373.92; palladium fell 1.5% to $1,110.32.

Oil market

Oil prices fell last Friday, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $65.50 per barrel, down 2.22%; U.S. crude oil futures closing at $61.87, down 2.54%. As weak U.S. employment data weakened the outlook for energy demand, the market's decision to further increase production at its weekend meeting of OPEC+ has intensified the risk of oversupply.

OPEC+ member states will consider further increase production at their meeting on Sunday. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, with analysts expecting a decline.

Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said it was a bit like a perfect storm, initially starting to fall due to OPEC news, and the employment report didn't help, indicating that the market is weakening.

The U.S. Department of Labor data showed that non-farm jobs increased by only 22,000 in August, far lower than the 7,000 revised in July, and economists surveyed had previously expected an increase of 75,000. Flynn noted that weak employment data will increase pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.

AngainCapital partner John Kilduff said, "This is a bad data point for the market," OPEC issued a statement on the 7th saying that eight major oil-producing countries in OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries decided to increase production by an average of 137,000 barrels per day in October. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman held an online meeting on the same day to discuss the situation and prospects of the international oil market. The statement said that given the current stable global economic expectations, stable market fundamentals, and low oil inventories, eight countries decided to adjust their output. In order to maintain the stability of the oil market, the eight countries will flexibly adjust the pace of production increase according to market conditions. The above-mentioned countries increased their daily output by 547,000 barrels in September.

Analysts of xmserving.commerzbank pointed out in the report: "Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production again, which we believe will put significant downward pressure on oil prices. After all, the risk of oversupply is already quite high."

Nevertheless, supply risks still support the market. White House officials say US President TrumpEuropean leaders were urged on Thursday to stop buying Russian oil.

Foreign market

The dollar fell sharply against major currencies last Friday as important monthly employment data showed that U.S. employers hired fewer than expected workers, confirming weaker labor market conditions and could guarantee the Fed's rate cut.

The Labor Department data showed that non-farm jobs increased by only 22,000 last month, far below the 75,000 economists surveyed by Reuters.

After the report was released, the US dollar fell across the board. The dollar fell 0.70% against the yen to 147.44, but continued to rise for the second consecutive week. The dollar fell 0.91% against the Swiss franc to 0.79830, while the dollar fell for the fourth consecutive week.

Juan Perez, head of trading at MonexUSA in Washington, said the data confirms what people are worried about, that is, due to changes in trade policies, everything xmserving.companies have experienced in the year, tariffs, and these costs can only be digested for so long, and now the performance is that xmserving.companies are struggling to recruit.

The euro was at $1.171675, up 0.55%, recording weekly gains against the US dollar. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.23% last week to 97.767.

Perez added: "This is definitely not a good story for the US dollar, nor is it a good story for the US, because what is really sure is that we are experiencing very severe stagflation."

U.S. Treasury yields fell, with interest-sensitive two-year Treasury yields falling 8.1 basis points to 3.511%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 8.8 basis points to 4.088%.

Major Wall Street indexes, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, reversed their early gains and fell across the board.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, traders currently believe that the Fed's chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting later this month is 10%, while the likelihood of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is close to 90%.

BannockburnGlobalForex chief market strategist Marc Chandler said: The swing of the pendulum is already very conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut. Even the market sets the probability of a 50 basis point cut at 10%, which makes people feel that it is a mistake for them to not cut interest rates before, and I don't think they are willing to admit it. , a cautious approach is to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and I think the Fed is cautious.

The pound rose against the weak dollar last Friday after British Deputy Prime Minister Reina resigned after admitting to underpaying new property taxes, a new blow to her boss, British Prime Minister Stamer. The pound rose 0.51% against the dollar to $1.35,055.

International News

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba decided to resign/h3>

According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) on September 7, before the Liberal Democratic Party decided to hold an interim presidential election on the 8th, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba decided to resign from his post on the grounds of "not willing to split within the party."

The US Treasury Secretary said that if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, it will be forced to refund half of the tariffs

On the 7th local time, US Treasury Secretary Bescent said in an interview with the media that if the US Supreme Court upholds the ruling to determine that the US government's tariff measures are illegal, the US Treasury Department will have to refund about half of the tariffs that have been imposed, and the consequences will be "disastrous." The U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on August 29 that it would allow the current tariff policy to be maintained until October 14 so that the Trump administration can appeal to the Supreme Court.

Major oil-producing countries will continue to increase their production in October

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on the 7th saying that the eight major oil-producing countries among OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries decided to increase their production by an average of 137,000 barrels per day in October. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman held an online meeting on the same day to discuss the situation and prospects of the international oil market. The statement said that given the current stable global economic expectations, stable market fundamentals, and low oil inventories, eight countries decided to adjust their output. In order to maintain the stability of the oil market, the eight countries will flexibly adjust the pace of production increase according to market conditions. The above-mentioned countries increased their daily output by 547,000 barrels in September.

Iraq calls on OPEC members to reconsider its oil export quota

Iraq Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Sudani calls on OPEC to reconsider the country's oil export quota, saying it does not reflect the size of its reserves. At an event in Baghdad, Iraq's proven reserves were 150 billion barrels, "Our export quotas are not xmserving.commensurate with our reserve size and production capacity. For a war-torn country, export quotas are not enough to bring enough revenue." OPEC+ member states will hold a video conference on Sunday to discuss production policy.

More than 300 Koreans were arrested in the United States. The South Korean government urgently discussed countermeasures

U.S. law enforcement officers recently raided a factory under construction in South Korea's Hyundai Motor xmserving.company in the United States and arrested hundreds of South Korean citizens. The South Korean government expressed concern and urgent discussions on countermeasures. According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean Foreign Minister Zhao Xian convened an emergency meeting on the 6th, with participants including senior foreign ministry officials and relevant diplomatic officials stationed abroad. Zhao Xian confirmed at the meeting that more than 300 Koreans were arrested, saying that South Korea "deeply regrets" about the incident and has a "significant sense of responsibility" for the arrested Koreans. He said that South Korea expressed regret and concerns about this incident to the interim office of the US Embassy in South Korea on the 4th. South Korean President Lee Jae-ming demanded that he do his best to resolve the incident quickly, and the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs may immediately send senior officials to the United States.

Experts say global central banks accelerate de-dollarization

World Gold Council report shows that the entire year in the second quarter of this yearThe official gold reserves of the ball increased by 166 tons, at an all-time high. From 2022 to 2024, the annual purchase volume of central banks around the world exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years. Experts said that promoting the diversification of reserve assets has become a general trend for global central banks. In response to the Fed's signal of interest rate cuts, central banks in many countries may continue to increase their holdings of gold. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that recently, gold has surpassed the euro to become the world's second largest reserve asset. Central banks in various countries accelerated their de-dollarization to diversify risks, while gold prices continued to break through highs. The World Gold Council's "2025 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" also shows that 95% of the central banks surveyed expect global official gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months, and 43% of the central banks said they will also increase their holdings of gold.

U.S. poll: Trump's approval rating is 43%, with the lowest recognition of inflation treatment

On September 7, local time, a poll conducted by the NBC News Decision Center and the questionnaire platform SurveyMonkey showed that US President Trump's overall approval rating is 43%, and 57% of respondents do not recognize his governance performance. Inflation and the cost of living are the most concerned economic issues for the people, and only 39% of respondents agree on the way they deal with inflation. In addition, despite government officials' promotion of restriction on vaccination, American society still showed strong cross-party support for vaccines, with an overall support rate of 78%. The survey also shows that 58% of Americans prefer to support "experienced insiders" in politics rather than "reformers outside the system." The survey was conducted from August 13 to September 1 and covered 30,196 adults.

South Korea announced the detailed rules for the trial visa-free policy for Chinese group tourists: it will be implemented from September 29

The South Korean Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and State Adjustment Office jointly issued the "Trial Plan for Visa-free Policy for Chinese Group Tourists" on September 7, which mentioned that the South Korean government will pilot the visa-free entry policy for Chinese group tourists with three or more members from September 29 to June 30 next year, with a stay period of 15 days.

Domestic News

National Data Administration: Promoting the reform of market-oriented allocation of data elements and the resonance of "artificial intelligence +" in the same frequency

2025 World Intelligent Industry Expo opened in Chongqing yesterday. Liu Liehong, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the National Data Administration, attended the opening ceremony and delivered a speech. In the next step, the National Data Administration will make deepening the empowerment of data elements to develop innovative development of artificial intelligence as a key task in the data field. Through a series of policy xmserving.combinations and systematic layout, we will continue to promote the reform of market-oriented allocation of data elements and the resonance of "artificial intelligence +" at the same frequency, realize the market-oriented value of data elements, and provide new impetus for industrial innovation and upgrading. At the same time, we also call on the whole society to jointly strengthen the recognition of the value of data elements, invest in high-quality data in the industry, and cultivate a market consensus of "paying for high-quality data".

Focus on embodied intelligent industrialization 2025 Technology Innovation Conference held in BeijingThe 2025 Science and Technology Innovation Conference was held in Beijing on the 5th. With the theme of "Embroidered Intelligent Industry Intelligent Change New Engine", it attracted domestic and foreign scientists, entrepreneurs and investors to gather together to explore cutting-edge innovation, transformation of scientific and technological achievements and industrialization of embodied intelligence. The conference is hosted by Zhiyou Yarui Science and Technology Innovation Platform and co-organized by Beijing Zhongguancun Dongsheng Science and Technology Park Co., Ltd. and GF Securities Co., Ltd. The conference held a signing ceremony for the cooperation of "China Italian Robot (Beijing) Research and Innovation Center". Paul Dario, chief scientist of the National Center for Robots' ARTES4.0, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Wang Tianmiao, director of Zhongguancun Zhiyou Research Institute, Zhiyou Yari Science and Technology Innovation Platform and Yari Scientist Fund, on behalf of the two parties.

More than 120 countries and regions are optimistic that "Invest in China" will participate in the 25th Investment and Trade Fair

The 25th China International Investment and Trade Fair will be held in Xiamen, Fujian from September 8 to 11. All preparations are now ready. We are optimistic about "Investing in China", and delegations from more than 120 countries and regions will attend the meeting. At a press conference held on the afternoon of the 6th, Yu Guangsheng, deputy director of the Investment Promotion Bureau of the Ministry of xmserving.commerce, said that as the only major national exhibition in my country with investment as the theme, the conference is themed "Working with China to invest in the future" with a total exhibition area of ​​120,000 square meters. More than 100 investment promotion activities will be held, and efforts will be made to build a landmark exhibition of "Invest in China" and an important service platform for two-way investment promotion. The conference will hold a symposium on multinational xmserving.companies, a dialogue between well-known private enterprises and a top 500 xmserving.companies, and more than 30 special investment promotion activities to showcase the vitality and opportunities of "Investing in China" in all aspects and in multiple dimensions.

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