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ADP may trigger the euro collapse tonight! Fierce game between technical support and fundamental long and short

Wonderful introduction:

Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the ten thousand white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: ADP may trigger the euro collapse tonight! Technical support and fundamental bulls and bears are fiercely playing." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday (September 4), the euro fell slightly against the US dollar, trading around 1.1650. The pair is still seeking a directional breakthrough and is currently near the lower track of the trading range in recent weeks. The market is waiting for the release of retail sales data in the euro zone. However, the market's main focus is on U.S. ADP employment data released later today, especially the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment report on Friday.

The weak performance of the U.S. JOLTS job vacancy data released on Wednesday further confirmed the downturn in the labor market and strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This view has been confirmed by speeches by Fed officials including Director Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed Chairman Raphael Bostic.

Investor expectations for the Fed's easing policy at its September meeting rose to 97% from about 87% the day before, easing concerns about the inflationary fiscal debt of major economies around the world earlier this week. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.90% from its 5% high on Wednesday, while the European long-term German Treasury yield also fell to 3.35% from its multi-year high of 3.43%.

However, market sentiment remains cautious. Today's focus turned to the US ADP employment report, which is expected to show that employment growth is relatively weak, setting the tone for non-farm employment data. If Friday's non-farm data confirms the weak labor market, it could push the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at a Sept. 17 Federal Open Market xmserving.committee meeting.

Investors remain cautious in front of U.S. employment data

Easy debt concerns and ease of risk aversion provide support for the euro, but investors are still reluctant to short the dollar on a large scale, alerting that non-farm data may bring unexpected surprises and weaken expectations for a rate cut in September. Against this background, the euro is likely to continue to fluctuate in the previous period.

Trade data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. job vacancy dropped to 7.181 million in July, a record low in nearly a year, far lower than market analysts' expectations of 7.4 million. In addition, the June data was revised down from 7.437 million to 7.357 million.

Later that day, Federal Reserve Director Christopher Waller hinted in an interview with xmserving.comBC that the Federal Reserve may initiate a rate cut in September and that "it may see multiple rate cuts in the next six months." Atlanta Fed Chairman Rafael Bostic also expressed support for a rate cut in 2025, but he emphasized that inflation remains the Fed's primary focus.

According to another news on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve candidate nominated by US President Trump (successor Adrianna Coogler) promised at a hearing of the Senate Banking xmserving.committee that he would firmly safeguard the independence of the Federal Reserve.

In terms of the eurozone economic schedule, the focus on Friday was on July retail sales data, which is expected to fall by 0.2% month-on-month (the previous value was an increase of 0.3%).

The U.S. market focuses on ADP private employment data released Thursday night, with an estimated 65,000 new jobs in August (down from 104,000 in July). This relatively sluggish data could exacerbate market concerns about weak labor markets and set the tone for Friday’s non-farm report, with the current downside risks facing the dollar significantly intensifying.

The euro is still fragile against the dollar, with the bear target directly pointing to the 1.1585 support area

The euro is free from bearish pressure earlier this week, but has not yet xmserving.completely escaped from the predicament. Market sentiment remains cautious, long-term yields are still near historical highs, and France's uncertain political situation continues to put pressure on.

Technical indicators show that there is a lack of clear directional bias, but the exchange rate is still relatively close to the bottom of the trading range near the four-week period (1.1585 area).

Recent support is near Wednesday's low of 1.1610, and the key support area is seen in the 1.1575-1.1590 range (this position has effectively suppressed the short offensive on August 11, 22 and 27). If further downwards, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1565) of the rising market in early August may provide support, with important support following the reference to the August 5 low of around 1.1530.

In the upward trend, Wednesday's high of 1.1682 constitutes a preliminary resistance, and the resistance is followed by a downward trend line (currently near 1.1725) and the 1.1735 area (this position has suppressed the bull offensive many times on August 13, 22 and September 1).

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: ADP may trigger the euro collapse tonight! The fierce game between technical support and fundamental long and short" is carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading!感谢支hold!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues:

Unless otherwise specified, all articles are original creations of this websiteIf reproduced, please indicate the source: XM Forex

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ADP may trigger the euro collapse tonight! Fierce game between technical support and fundamental long and short

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

ADP may trigger the euro collapse tonight! Fierce game between technical support and fundamental long and short

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason