Oil prices rise nearly 3%, safe-haven cooling drags down Gold prices fall to three-week lowest Trump limits Russia to 12-day ceasefire

Basic news

On Tuesday (July 29, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,314/ounce, gold prices fell to the lowest level in the past three weeks on Monday, and the US-EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar and risk sentiment. At the same time, investors were waiting for new clues about interest rate policies at the Federal Reserve meeting this week; US crude oil trading was around $66.97/barrel, and US oil rose nearly 3% on Monday, after the United States and the EU reached a trade agreement, US President Trump announced that it would shorten the deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war or face sanctions.

Stock and European Stock Market

The US S&P 500 rose slightly on Monday, hitting a close high for the sixth consecutive trading day, and the Nasdaq also set a closing record in fluctuating trading. Investors are evaluating the US-EU trade agreement and preparing for important market catalysis this week.

U.S. President Trump and EU Executive xmserving.committee President von der Leyen unveiled a trade framework agreement on Sunday to cut EU import tariffs to 15% - threatening half of the tax rate to xmserving.come into force on August 1. But France condemned the agreement as "submission."

This agreement is the latest since the United States recently reached a trade agreement with Japan, Indonesia and other countries. Senior U.S.-Chinese and senior economic officials also resumed talks in Stockholm to resolve the trade war between the two world's largest economies.

Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity, said: "This agreement is a bit reassuring because it is not as likely to cause economic disaster as it was before. However, it is too early to judge the long-term impact. Although it is indeed much better than the worse alternatives before, but I still hope the negotiations can continue. ”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 0.14% to 44,837.56 points; the S&P 500 has risen 0.02% to 6,389.77 points; the Nasdaq has risen 0.33% to 21,178.58 points.

The S&P 500 has now hit a new close high for six consecutive trading days and has set its 15th closing record this year. Stocks have experienced a round of selling since Trump announced a series of tariff measures in early April, but have rebounded strongly.

Investors' continued enthusiasm for the potential of artificial intelligence technology, as well as some trade The agreement and the initial performance of corporate earnings quarters outperformed expectations also boosted market sentiment.

Investors are currently waiting for the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday. Although Trump continues to pressure Fed Chairman Powell to reduce borrowing costs, the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.

All the financial reports will also be released this week, including financial reports from heavyweight xmserving.companies Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple, which may influence the sentiment of investors.

In addition to the Fed meeting and financial reports, a series of economic indicators will be released this week, including the Including the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, as well as the government employment report, to measure the impact of tariffs on consumer prices and labor markets.

Nike climbed 3.89%, after JPMorgan raised the stock from "neutral" to "overweight" and said investors should "buy directly."

Energy stocks rose 1.15%, the best performer in the S&P index, boosted by more than 2% oil prices, while real estate fell 1.75% and materials fell 1.44% with the worst performance.

Gold market

Gold fell to its lowest in nearly three weeks on Monday, with the U.S.-EU trade agreement boosting the dollar and risk sentiment, while investors awaited new clues about interest rate policy this week’s Fed meeting.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3310.45 per ounce, earlier hitting its lowest since July 9 $3301.29. U.S. futures fell 0.7% to a settlement price of $3311.2 per ounce, and the dollar index rose to its highest in more than a week.

Marex analyst Edward Meir said: "I think the more trade announcements, the more the dollar is. These tariff agreements are good for the dollar, reducing the attractiveness of gold and triggering a sell-off amid high risk appetite sentiment. ”

The U.S. and the EU reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday to impose a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, threatening half of the tax rate, thus avoiding a larger trade war between the two allies.

The Federal Reserve will end its two-day meeting on Wednesday and is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate range between 4.25% and 4.50%. The market continues to expect a possible rate cut in September.

Silver fell 0.3% to $38.04 an ounce, platinum fell 1.1% to $1,386.03, and palladium rose 1.5% to $1,238.18. Oil market

Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Monday after the U.S. and the EU reached a trade deal, and U.S. President Trump announced that it would shorten the deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war or face sanctions. Brent crude oil futures were $70.04 a barrel, up 2.3%. U.S. crude oil rose 2.4% to $66.71. Brent crude oil hit its highest price in 10 days after Trump said it would shorten the 50-day period to 10 to 12 days.

IG's market analyst Tony Sycamore said the agreement reached between the United States and the EU and the possible extension of the tariff truce between China and the United States also provides support for global financial markets and oil prices.

The framework trade agreement reached with the EU announced on Sunday stipulates that the United States imposes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods. Trump also said the deal requires the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy in the next few years. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said, "Europe will have to give up a large portion of the goods obtained from Russia. The (trade agreement) not only brings a huge boost to U.S. producers through this xmserving.commitment, but also puts more pressure on (Russian President) Putin to sit at the negotiating table."

In terms of supply, the OPEC+ group stressed on Monday that the oil production agreement must be fully xmserving.complied with before the eight OPEC+ member states met separately on Sunday to decide to increase oil production in September.

Foreign Market

The dollar rose against the euro and the yen on Monday as the market was boosted by a trade deal between the United States and the EU that brought some certainty to the market and avoided a global trade war.

U.S. President Trump and EU Executive xmserving.committee President von der Leyen reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday that stipulated a 15% import tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump threatened to impose from August 1.

Last week, the United States reached an agreement with Japan. "If you turn back to early April or Liberation Day, the primary theme has been the selling of U.S. assets because the new trading system brings uncertainty and now you are seeing some signs of returning to normal."

The dollar rose against the safe-haven currency Swiss franc, at 0.80,325 francs, an increase of 1%. The US dollar rose 0.59% against the yen to 148.535.

The euro fell 1.25% against the dollar at $1.159,125, which will mark its biggest single-day decline since mid-May, reversing the initial knee-leap gain in Asian trading as investors turn to global trade tensionsThe impact of the ease of the momentum on the overall US dollar.

Earlier this year, the dollar fell sharply, especially against the euro, due to concerns that a sharp increase in trade tariffs with most major partners would harm the U.S. economy and lead investors to consider withdrawing U.S. assets. U.S. stocks were mostly lower, but were still trading near all-time highs.

Usually, the gap between government bond yields is the main factor in currency trends, but the current exchange rate of the euro is significantly higher than the gap between the U.S. and the euro zone yields.

Anthi Tsouvali, multi-asset strategist at UBS Wealth, said that if you think about our expectations at the beginning of the year, no one really thought the euro would be so strong. We all believe that the dollar will remain strong especially after the Liberation Day and we continue to see the dollar weaken. "

The euro fell against the yen and pound, with the euro hitting a year-on-year high and two-year high respectively at the opening. The dollar strengthened against the pound, with the pound falling 0.67% to $1.33,545.

As concerns about the economic impact of punitive tariffs weakened, investors' attention is turning to corporate earnings and central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan in the xmserving.coming days.

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain interest rates at this week's policy meeting, But traders will focus on subsequent xmserving.comments to determine the timing of next move.

Investors will also focus on Trump's reaction to the Fed's decision. Two-year Treasury yields, which usually move in line with Fed rate expectations, rose 1.5 basis points to 3.932% from 3.917% late Friday.

Trump has been putting heavy pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates last week, and Trump appeared close to trying to fire Powell, but given the possible confusion of markets that xmserving.come with it And backed off.

International News

The U.S. Treasury Department significantly raised its quarterly borrowing estimates to supplement cash reserves

The U.S. Treasury Department raised its federal borrowing estimates this quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to the impact of debt ceilings. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement on Monday saying that the net borrowing scale is now expected to be $1.01 trillion from July to September, up from the April forecast of $554 billion. The government had to cut it in the first half of the year Reduce bond issuance to avoid hitting debt ceilings. Since Congress raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion at the beginning of this month, the Treasury Department is currently accelerating the pace of issuance to rebuild cash reserves. As a customary policy, the Treasury Department's April estimate did not take into account the debt ceiling. At the time, assuming the cash balance at the end of June was $850 billion, but the actual balance was only $457 billion. The Treasury Department said: "Not taking into account the lower-than-expected cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, borrowing estimates for the quarter were $60 billion higher than the amount announced in April. ”

The Prime Minister of Canada says trade talks with the United States are in a "tensive stage"

The Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney said, although US President Trump recently made a statement saying that reaching an agreement with Canada is not an urgent task, the two governments are still in deep negotiations on trade issues. Carney downplayed the response to Trump's statement last week that the United States was not focused on Canada and might not reach an agreement on tariffs. "This is a negotiation. Public remarks should be viewed in light of this background." He also said that the negotiations with the United States are "in a tense phase" and reiterated that the agreement will only be signed "if it is good for Canada."

Iran: Europe has no right to launch a "rapid recovery of sanctions" mechanism

On July 28, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae held a press conference on Iran's nuclear issue and regional situation. Bagao and Ethiopia stressed that Britain, France and Germany have no right to use the "rapid sanctions" mechanism to put pressure on Iran. In response to the continued pressure on Iran by Europe, Britain, France and Germany, threatening to launch a "rapid recovery of sanctions" mechanism to restore UN sanctions on Iran, Bagae said that in the last round of negotiations, the focus of the negotiations between Iran and the three European countries was on nuclear issues and lifting sanctions. Iran has always emphasized that European parties do not have the right to initiate the mechanism. If it abuses this mechanism, it will inevitably lead to more xmserving.complexity of the nuclear issue. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae: European parties have long tried to use an issue in resolution 2231 of (United Nations Security Council) as a bargaining chip to put pressure on Iran. European parties have no fundamental right to reimpose sanctions with this tool, which we have announced in the last round of negotiations and before. If the three European countries abuse this issue, they will definitely face an appropriate response from Iran.

Russia has closed 20 transit ports between Russia and Ukraine since August

On July 28 local time, news released by the Russian legal portal showed that Russian Prime Minister Mishustin has issued a government order to close 20 highway and railway transit ports between Russia and Ukraine from August 1, 2025.

The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia officially came into effect

The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia officially came into effect at 24:00 on July 28 local time. On the afternoon of the 28th, Cambodian Prime Minister Honmanai and Thai Acting Prime Minister Putan led a high delegation to attend a special meeting on the Cambodia-Thailand border situation held in Butragaya, Malaysia. The Malaysian Prime Minister said that Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire, and the ceasefire agreement will take effect at midnight (24:00 local time on the 28th). On the same day, Thailand and Cambodia confirmed separately that the two sides had reached an agreement on a ceasefire and would start a ceasefire from midnight.

Trump restricts Russia's 12-day ceasefire

According to the Russian Satellite News Agency on the 28th, US President Trump said that due to the lack of progress in the conflict mediation between Russia and Ukraine, he will shorten the previously set 50-day ceasefire period for Russia and Ukraine to 10-12 days. "I'm going to set a new deadline, about 10-12 days from today. There's no reason to wait any longer. I wanted to be generous, but we just couldn't see any progress." Earlier that day,Trump, who is holding talks in Scotland, said he decided to shorten the previously set 50-day deadline due to disappointment with Russian President Putin.

Trump: It will announce tariffs on drugs soon

U.S. President Trump said on Monday that he plans to issue a statement on drug tariffs soon, but no specific date is given. Trump met with British Prime Minister Stamer a day after announcing a trade deal with the EU. After meeting with British Prime Minister Stamer in Scotland, Trump told reporters, "We will announce the drug news in the near future. We have a big plan in terms of medicines. We hope to bring a lot of drugs back to the United States."

Domestic News

Emerging market ETFs recorded capital inflows for the ninth consecutive week. China's gold-absorbing scale increased sharply and firmly ranked first. Last week, investors netted emerging market stocks and bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the ninth consecutive week. Among them, China's money-absorbing scale increased by more than doubled month-on-month, firmly ranked first. Data xmserving.compiled by Bloomberg showed that as of July 25, U.S. listed emerging market ETFs invested in developing countries and specific countries recorded a total of $2.36 billion inflows, xmserving.compared with $672.4 million the previous week. By region, China's capital inflows were the largest, at US$1.36 billion, of which KraneShares, CSI Overseas Chinese Internet ETF (KWEB) ranked first; China's inflows increased by 105% month-on-month. Argentina has the largest outflow of funds at $4.29 million.

Shanghai Economic and Information xmserving.commission: Strive to achieve the full opening of Pudong autonomous driving within the year, excluding Lujiazui and other regions

The just concluded 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference has attracted widespread attention on the demonstration operation of Shanghai's intelligent connected vehicles. On July 28, Han Dadong, a second-level inspector of the Shanghai Economic and Information xmserving.commission and director of the Automobile Industry Department, revealed in an interview that Shanghai will orderly expand the open area of autonomous driving, strive to achieve the full opening of autonomous driving test roads in Pudong New Area this year, and simultaneously promote the opening of Fengxian, Minhang and other regions.

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