US Treasury bonds rebound, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 18

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures indexes rose, Dow futures rose 0.08%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.06%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.06%. European stocks generally rose, the European Stock 50 index rose 0.37%, the German DAX index rose 0.5%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.33%, and the French CAC40 index rose 0.46%.

2. Market news interpretation

U.S. Treasury bonds rebounded. JPMorgan believes that Powell's risks are lingering.

U.S. Treasury bonds recovered some of the lost ground this week on Friday, while the dollar fell as the weekend approached. In the past week, discussions on the direction of the Federal Reserve’s policy and leadership have become the focus of market attention. The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.45%, up just three basis points this week, and the 30-year Treasury yield is expected to fall below 5% for the first time since Monday. The Bloomberg dollar index fell 0.2% after a Fed policymaker spoke out in a public urging a lower interest rate later this month. It was a turbulent week for U.S. Treasury bonds. Speculation that President Donald Trump may fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has also disturbed the market as continued inflationary pressure prompted traders to cut their chances of a rate cut in September, with 30-year yields rising above 5% for the first time since May.

Zelensky spoke with Macron on a phone call to discuss issues such as Ukrainian defense needs

Zelensky said on social media on the 18th local time that he had an hour's call with French President Macron that day. Both sides discussed the situation on the front line and Ukraine'sPriority to national defense needs. In the field of air defense, the two sides discussed specific measures to strengthen Ukrainian air defense systems, including supplying missiles to SAMP/T air defense systems and funding drone interception projects. Ukraine will develop new plans with France and other partners at the level of defense and foreign ministers. Zelensky mentioned that the two sides reached an agreement on the training of "Mage" fighter pilots, and France is ready to receive more pilots and increase the number of fighter jets used in training.

European natural gas futures will fall this week Traders evaluate the impact of the EU's latest sanctions plan on Russia

European natural gas prices will fall this week as temperatures are expected to drop for the rest of the month, and traders are evaluating the impact of the EU's latest sanctions plan on Russia. Benchmark futures prices are expected to fall more than 3% at the end of the week, with prices fluctuating on Friday after the EU approved a package of new sanctions against Russia, including a revised oil price ceiling.

The Trump administration's ambition to reverse decades of decline in the U.S. shipping industry is in a stagnation. Recently, news of the "disbandment" of the Shipbuilding Office under the National Security Council (NSC), which aims to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry has been rampant. On the 17th local time, White House spokesman Anna Kelly issued a statement confirming that after the NSC undergoes a major restructuring, the head of the shipbuilding office announced by the Trump administration has resigned, but the office itself still exists and is now under the management of the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB). U.S. President Trump announced the establishment of the office in a joint meeting of Congress in March and signed an executive order in April to revitalize the U.S. maritime industry. A senior person who has worked in the logistics industry for a long time told reporters that the U.S. shipping industry opinion leaders have recently discussed the above incidents, which reflect two issues. The first is that the Trump administration is probably not good at things that require long-term planning and investment. The second is that in the shipbuilding industry, some vested interests do not want to make changes.

American Express's Q2 profit exceeded expectations, and the high-end customer base turned the tide

⑴ On Friday, Beijing time, American Express (AXP) released its second-quarter profit data, exceeding market expectations. ⑵The core driving force for this performance growth xmserving.comes from the strong consumption capacity of its wealthy cardholders. ⑶ Financial report shows that excluding one-time items, American Express earnings per share reached $4.08 in the three months ended June 30, higher than analysts' expectations of $3.89. ⑷ The xmserving.company's total revenue grew by 9% to US$17.9 billion, highlighting the resilience of its business. ⑸ This data shows that American Express’s strategy of focusing on high-end customers has effectively avoided the impact of weakened consumer confidence in low-income families. ⑹ However, the xmserving.company also increased its credit loss reserves, from $1.3 billion in the same period last year to $1.4 billion. ⑺ Despite the increasing xmserving.competition in the high-end credit card market, American Express still expressed confidence in maintaining its leading position in this field. ⑻Chief Executive Officer Stephen Skyrie stressed,The xmserving.company will continue to invest the largest update investment in high-end card products. ⑼These data provide the market with valuable insights into high-end consumption trends and may have a positive impact on the relevant financial services sectors.

The profits of oil service giants plummeted! Drilling data in Saudi Arabia and Latin America reveal new changes in the energy market?

⑴ On Friday, Beijing time, SLB, the world's top oilfield service xmserving.company, released its second-quarter profit data, showing a significant decline. ⑵ Specific data show that in the three months ended June 30, SLB's net profit attributable to US$1.01 billion and earnings per share were 74 cents. ⑶ This data is lower than the $1.11 billion net profit and earnings per share of 77 cents a year ago, reflecting a weakening of profitability. ⑷ The main reason for the decline in profits is the continued weakness in drilling activities in Saudi Arabia and Latin America. ⑸ The poor performance of business in these key areas directly drags down SLB's overall international business profits. ⑹This data not only reveals the challenges facing SLB itself, but may also indicate that drilling activities in some important oil-producing areas around the world are slowing down. ⑺Investors need to pay close attention to the performance data of such oil service giants, which are often leading indicators of global energy exploration and production activities. ⑻Presidential sentiment may be affected as a result, and expectations for future oil and gas supply and industry prosperity may be adjusted accordingly. ⑼ Traders should carefully evaluate the investment risks of the energy sector in xmserving.combination with technical analysis.

The hawks are rising? Inflation data overwhelms market expectations for interest rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve may continue to hold its back

⑴ Fed officials will hold a policy meeting later this month, but the data shows signs of rising inflation again, which makes the reason for interest rate cuts difficult to find. ⑵ Although US President Trump’s call for a rate cut is getting stronger and even rumors of firing Fed Chairman Powell at one point, the Fed’s policy interest rate outlook remains basically unchanged. ⑶ The Federal Reserve's task is to maintain inflation stability, and it is expected that it will maintain the indicator interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at its meeting from July 29 to 30. ⑷ Investors had previously expected the Fed to resume rate cuts later this year, and even estimated that it could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. ⑸ However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released this week showed that inflation in June rose to 2.7% from 2.4% in the previous month, which reduced the probability of a rate cut in September to nearly 50%. ⑹The downward trend of xmserving.commodity prices is reversing, which has exacerbated overall inflation and also indicates that xmserving.companies may have begun to pass on some of their costs to consumers. ⑺Powell and other Fed officials said they expect price increases to accelerate this summer, so they have been reluctant to cut rates until they clarify the level of inflation, duration and whether economic growth slows to enough ease price pressure. ⑻ Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Bostic said that in terms of inflation, it may be at a "turning point", with nearly half of xmserving.commodity prices rising annually at or above 5%, twice that in January. ⑼He stressed that the overall inflation data deviates from the Fed's goal rather than approaching the target.It shows that price pressure is real. ⑽ New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams pointed out that the impact is still in its early stages and is expected to intensify in the xmserving.coming months. ⑾In the economic forecast released in June, Fed officials expected the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to rise by 3% by the end of this year, but are still expected to cut interest rates by only 0.5 percentage points, far less than the market expects. ⑿No Fed officials currently agree on the view of aggressive rate cuts, and caution remains their general attitude.

Powell's "dismissed" countdown: Inflation powder barrels have been buried in the leads

⑴Commerzbank Kraemer warned that if Trump really pressed the dismissal button and replaced it with a dovish leader, U.S. inflation will soar. ⑵ The cracks in the independence of the Federal Reserve are visible to the naked eye. The swap market pushed the inflation expectations in 2026 to above 3%, the steepest slope since 2022. ⑶ Faster interest rate cuts will raise the 10-year break-even inflation rate by another 50 basis points. Coupled with the input-type price increase implicitly by Trump's tariff policy, the core PCE may return to the 4% range. ⑷ If long-term inflation expectations are out of control, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield may break through 5%, the real interest rate of the US dollar turns negative, and gold will go straight to $3,500. ⑸ The market has bets in advance: the implied volatility of the US dollar soared 20% in one week, and the single-day inflow of gold ETFs hit a three-month high.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1656, an increase of 0.51%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (EURUSD) rose at the recent intraday level, from retesting the key resistance level at 1.1655, while reaching its EMA50 resistance level, (RSI) reaching overbought levels put it under negative pressure, negative overlap signals begin to appear in the short term, and trade along the bias line.

GBP/USD:As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3472, an increase of 0.41%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price continued its cautious gains in the previous trading, trying to regain some of its previous declines, the rise occurred as the short-term bearish correction trend continued, and its trading was trading along the bearish bias line, indicating that the negative technical pressure on the price movement was still continuing.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3357.90, an increase of 0.57%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (gold) prices soared in the last session, affected by the positive push after its EMA50 support, providing positive momentum to help it achieveStrong upside, dominant with the main bullish trend, its trading is traded with small bias lines on a short-term basis, and on the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) has negative overlap signals after reaching overbought levels, which may slow down the upward track, especially when approaching key resistance levels.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 38.337, an increase of 0.60%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose in the last intraday, supported by its continued higher than EMA50 trading, and it traded along the bias line under the lead of the short-term major bullish trend. On the other hand, we noticed negative overlap signals starting to appear on the (RSI), which may force the price to rebound lower after reaching the overbought level to alleviate this overbought situation and gather positive momentum.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 67.490, an increase of 1.92%. Before New York, (crude oil) closed strongly in the last session, supported by attempts to regain previous losses, and the price retested the support level of the small bullish channel, which limits the price of the previous trade on a short-term basis and hits the resistance level of the EMA50, which adds technical pressure and may limit the continued rise.

4. Institutional View

Deutsche Bank: The downward trend of the US dollar remains unchanged after the recent easing

xmserving.commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur said in a report that the recent moderate recovery of the US dollar may represent a suspension of the depreciation of the US dollar, rather than a reversal of the trend. He said: "Given the intensity and speed of the US dollar's depreciation in the first half of this year, it is very likely to rebound slightly in recent weeks." But the problems facing the US dollar have not disappeared and may be back in focus next week. He pointed out that the deadline for U.S. tariffs on August 1 are approaching quickly, while the independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat.

Goldman Sachs: The Bank of England's interest rate cut expectations have reversed, and data reveals new challenges in inflation

⑴ On Friday, Beijing time, Goldman Sachs economists announced that they had abandoned the Bank of England's interest rate cut in September this year. ⑵This adjustment reflects Goldman Sachs' judgment on the Bank of England's future monetary policy attitude will be more cautious. ⑶ Despite this, Goldman Sachs still maintains its ultimate goal of lowering the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate to 3% by the end of next March. ⑷Goldman Sachs economist Jari Stehn pointed out in a report to clients that taking into account the accumulated progress in curbing inflation and more rate cuts previously issued by the Bank of EnglandSignal. ⑸ They once believed that the possibility of a rate cut on August 7 is still high, but this expectation has changed after the recent release of inflation data. ⑹The UK inflation data released this week showed an unexpected high, which directly led to Goldman Sachs' reassessment of the rate cut path. ⑺Goldman Sachs currently predicts that the Bank of England will cut interest rates continuously starting in November this year. ⑻ And it will not reach the terminal interest rate level of 3% until March next year. ⑼ Previously, Goldman Sachs had expected Bank of England policymakers to lower key interest rates at each meeting from August this year to February next, showing a significant adjustment expected. ⑽This data change means that the market's judgment on the Bank of England's future policy path needs to be revised. ⑾Investors should be wary of the possible ongoing impact of inflation data and adjust their trading strategies for the pound and UK Treasury bonds. ⑿The market psychology will be significantly affected by this expected change, and cautious sentiment may have the upper hand in the short term.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: US Treasury bonds rebound, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on July 18" was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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