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US dollar data issuance, the euro accelerates downward, and the technical alarm sounds
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: US dollar data is issued continuously, the euro accelerates downward, and the technical alarm sounds." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
After a series of US macro data was released, market volatility intensified again. The US dollar index (DXY) continued to be strong, rising to around 98.90 during the day, regaining the previous day's decline. Affected by it, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell continuously, setting a new weekly low to 1.1556 during the session.
The U.S. Department of Labor announced that as of the week ending July 12, the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 221,000, a record low in the past three months; at the same time, the monthly rate of retail sales in June recorded +0.6%, far better than the expected value of 0.1%, and the annual rate rose to 3.9%, demonstrating the resilience of US household consumption. Another data, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to 15.9 in July, far exceeding the expected -1. This series of positive news consolidates market expectations that the Fed will continue to maintain interest rates at high levels, thereby driving the dollar to rebound.
Brands
Recently, a series of macroeconomic data in the United States have sent positive signals. The employment market remains stable, with the number of initial unemployment claims recorded 221,000, lower than the expected 235,000 and lower than the previous value of 228,000 (after correction), confirming the logic that the Federal Reserve does not rush to turn in the monetary policy path. At the same time, the number of people who renewed unemployment benefits increased slightly to 1.956 million, but it was still lower than the market estimate, indicating that the labor market still has a certain amount of pressure.
On the other hand, the retail sales data in June were significantly better than expected, with the monthly rate rebounding to +0.6%, and the annual rate recorded +3.9%, which is in 2025.Come to a higher level. In particular, total sales in the second quarter increased by 4.1% year-on-year, representing the solid foundation of US consumption. At the same time, the U.S. export prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month in June, while import prices rose by only 0.1%, indicating that foreign demand is more resilient than domestic demand for imported inflation.
Under this background, the US dollar index maintains a strong consolidation, and the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current high interest rate in the short term will increase, which puts continuous pressure on the euro. In the euro zone, although the annual HICP rate in June remained at a stable level of 2%, it was not enough to form a backpressure effect. The current gap in monetary policy expectations in Europe and the United States continues to widen, causing the fundamental center of gravity of the euro/dollar to tilt downward.
Technical:
Euro/USD shows a significant downward channel structure on the 4-hour chart, and the three tracks of the Bollinger band are also synchronously downward, showing that the medium and short-term trend momentum is weak. The current exchange rate is running near the lower rail of the Bollinger Band and the lower side of the descending channel, forming a "accelerated downward" trend. The price center of gravity continues to move down, indicating that bears are still dominating the market.
Specifically, the exchange rate rebounded to around 1.1720 recently and fell rapidly, forming a typical "decline relay" pattern. The subsequent negative line continuously swallowed the previous increase and fell below 1.16 support, further down to 1.1556, approaching the lower boundary of the downward channel, and the short-term risk-inclined signal is obvious.
In terms of MACD indicators, DIFF and DEA are always below the zero axis and go down synchronously. The green column of the bar chart is re-enlarged, indicating that the bear momentum is strengthened again. The RSI indicator runs around 34. Although it has not entered the extreme oversold zone, it still maintains a downward trend, indicating that the market has not yet shown a significant bottom divergence structure.
A xmserving.comprehensive analysis believes that the current technical structure is showing a pattern of "weak rebound and strong decline". The short-term support level focuses on the 1.1550-1.1530 area. Once it effectively falls below, it is expected to fall to the 1.1453 previous platform level; the upper resistance is located in the two previous highs areas of 1.1645 and 1.1720.
Previous Observation
From the perspective of market sentiment, there are currently obvious characteristics of short market sentiment. The driving force of US dollar buying brought by the U.S. data beyond expectations and the accelerated break of the technical form has left the euro/dollar bulls in a continuous passive state and lack effective counterattacks.
Although the exchange rate is approaching the technical support range in the short term, no obvious "emotional reversal" signal has appeared, such as the bulls' stop-fall structure, divergence pattern or strong support confirmation. At present, sentiment is relatively short, technical indicators are consistently downward, and there are no signs of trading volume divergence or other bottoming out, reflecting that the market has not yet established an effective "buy consensus".
In addition, from the perspective of the Bollinger band bandwidth in the figure, there is no extreme narrowing at present, suggesting that there may still be room for volatility expansion in the short term. If the news side is short again, the market may further strengthen the bear sentiment.
Future Outlook
Bules Outlook:
Analysts believe that if the US economic data goes in the futureIf soft, or the market begins to reevaluate the Fed's policy path and there is a valuation correction caused by the rapid appreciation of the US dollar, there is an opportunity for a technical rebound from the euro/dollar. The current RSI indicator is close to the oversold zone. Once the bottom divergence is formed or the price re-stops above 1.1645, the exchange rate is expected to rebound to repair the market with a certain degree of resistance. The upper resistance is referenced to 1.1720 and near the middle track of the Bollinger Band.
Short Outlook:
Analysts believe that if the subsequent US macro data continues to perform strongly, especially the employment and consumption side, and the Federal Reserve releases signals of hawkish stability maintenance within the Fed, the euro/dollar may continue to continue the downward trend. The current technical pattern supports further declines, and the support below focuses on the 1.1530 and 1.1453 areas. Once the latter is effectively broken, the possibility of testing 1.1400 or even lower support levels is not ruled out.
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