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US "terror data" debuts stunningly, US dollar index hesitates

Wonderful introduction:

Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: The US "terror data" made a stunning debut, and the US dollar index is hesitant." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On July 18, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.43. On Thursday, as tensions over Powell's sack slumped and U.S. economic data were strong, the U.S. dollar index rose and finally closed up 0.37% to 98.61. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.457%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.913%. Spot gold plunged after the US "terror data" exceeded expectations, and fell below the $3310 mark for a time. Then the decline narrowed and finally closed down 0.25%, closing at $3347.6/ounce; spot silver rebounded more significantly, eventually closing up 0.62%, at $38.14/ounce. International oil prices stopped falling three times as U.S. economic data eased some concerns about deteriorating oil demand. WTI crude oil station rose 66 and finally closed up 1.33% to $66.31 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.66% to $68.9 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.43. The dollar rose by strong labor and retail data, as Trump denied rumors of Powell's firing, eased market tensions. The U.S. dollar index briefly broke through the 50-day moving average for the first time since February 98.700, hitting a high of 98.950. Trump's remarks rekindled market doubts about the stability of Fed Chairman Powell's position and policy direction, limiting the dollar's gains. U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations; the number of initial unemployment claims fell by 7,000, which supported the strong prospect of the US dollar on the technical side, such asAs the dollar index rises above the 99.00 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level of 99.20–99.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1625. Risk preference improved after U.S. President Donald Trump denied rumors that he planned to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. While economic data from the U.S. continues to justify the Fed’s current position, most officials have properly revealed that position, as the labor market is solid and retail sales have improved, with Tuesday’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing inflation is approaching 3%. The euro is under pressure as the ECB's inflation is close to its target, while the U.S. CPI is showing strong performance. Technically, a break below the 1.1575 level will open up a path for testing the next support level, which is in the range of 1.1450–1.1465.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3435. The GBP/USD fluctuated around the 1.3400 area on Thursday, facing new fluctuations after a brief ease of selling pressure. The overall UK labor data failed to meet expectations, while the US retail sales data were stronger than expected. On Friday, UK data remained blank on the agenda, while the U.S. market still had to deal with the University of Michigan (UoM) July consumer confidence index data. Technically, if GBP/USD successfully closes below 1.3370, it will move towards the support level of 1.3250–1.3270. The RSI is in a mild area and if the right catalyst appears, there is enough room for power.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold hovered around 3339.11. Overall, the gold market is currently in a multi-game game between Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, US dollar trends and tariff policies. The Fed's stance on delaying interest rate cuts, strong retail and employment data, and rising U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have suppressed gold prices in the short term. However, the support of buying on dips shows the market's long-term confidence in gold. The uncertainty of tariff policies and potential inflationary pressures may further enhance the risk-haven appeal of gold, and the differences within the Federal Reserve on the timing of interest rate cuts have also added variables to the trend of gold prices. This trading day requires attention to the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the U.S. real estate market data, pay attention to the meeting of Treasury Secretary and Central Bank Governors hosted by South Africa, and pay attention to news related to the international trade situation.

Technical: The gold price has been sideways consolidation in the past few days, indicating that the two forces are in a balanced state and traders are waiting for a clearer direction signal. Although the short-term market is still in a consolidation phase below the record high ($3,500), the bullish trend in the big cycle has not changed. In the short term, gold prices are still in the range of US$3377-3320 (the trend of falling below US$3320 today may be short-lived). Breaking through any range boundary will release preliminary direction signals. The daily chart technical indicators are still in a bullish arrangement (the momentum indicator is positive/the daily chart cloud layer continues to provide support), strengthening the optimistic outlook - the market generally believes that the current extended consolidation is just a rest before the bulls make another effort. The stable support in the $3320-3300 area should limit downward space and help gold prices hit the top of the range again ($3373-3377); if it breaks through this area, it will open up space for testing the $3400 (psychological mark) and $3452 (June 16 high).

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 66.28. Oil prices rose $1 on Thursday after drones hit Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for the fourth consecutive day, indicating that risks in the turbulent region remained. This trading day requires attention to the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the U.S. real estate market data, pay attention to the meeting of Treasury Secretary and Central Bank Governors hosted by South Africa, and pay attention to news related to the international trade situation.

Technical: Since early May 2025, WTI crude oil has tried to maintain a stable upward trend despite recent fluctuations. But on the latest trading day, the selling pressure rose significantly, breaking the previously continued uptrend line. If the selling pressure continues, it may trigger a new bearish pattern for short-term price trends. The RSI indicator has begun to decline and is currently fluctuating below the neutral 50 level. This indicates that the bear momentum is increasing, and if this trend continues, it may indicate an increase in the selling dominance in the short term. Triple index smooth average (TRIX): The TRIX indicator also shows a similar trend and is currently in a downward state. This change means that the average intensity of the moving average is entering the bearish range, and if the negative slope continues, it may mark the transfer of momentum to the seller.

Forex market trading reminder on July 18, 2025

14:00Germany June PPI monthly rate

16:00Eurozone May seasonally adjusted current account

20:30Total number of new houses started in June in the United States

20:30Total number of construction permits in the United States in June

22:00U.S.One-year inflation rate expected in July

22:00U.S.Michigan in JulyThe initial value of the University Consumer Confidence Index

The next day, 01:00, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to July 18

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market analysis

US "terror data" debuts stunningly, US dollar index hesitates

Analysis of major currencies

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Forex market trading reminder on July 18, 2025

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

US "terror data" debuts stunningly, US dollar index hesitates

Analysis of major currencies

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Forex market trading reminder on July 18, 2025

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason