U.S. oil fell nearly 6%, returning to below $65 per barrel Iran accepts ceasefire plan, risk aversion sentiment drags down money price

Basic news

Spot gold fell on Tuesday (June 24, Beijing time), trading around $3,353/ounce, as Iran did not take any action to block oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran accepted a ceasefire plan, the market's risk aversion sentiment eased; oil prices fell, and U.S. oil fell nearly 6%, returning to below $65/barrel, the lowest level since June 10.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut as early as July overshadowing uncertainty about the escalating turmoil in the Middle East.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed sharply higher. The consumer discretionary sector led the gains, boosted by Tesla. "This round of gains is a bit surprising, and to some extent, the U.S. strike ends uncertainty about whether it will take action. The market is extremely optimistic because June is the time when we expected a pullback," he said. “People don’t want to sell in this market.” Fed vice chairman Bowman said on Monday that “it’s time to consider adjusting policy rates”, and the job market faces more risks than tariff-related inflation concerns. Chicago Fed President Goulsby said that the impact of tariffs on the economy so far has been moderate than expected.

The financial market is expected to cut interest rates at least twice before the end of the year, at 25 basis points each time. The first rate cut is generally expected to be in September.

Tesla has soared by 8.2% after it launched its long-awaited self-driving taxi suit in Austin, TexasServing. The day after the United States joined the war, Israel continued to bomb Iran.

Nevertheless, oil prices plummeted and Iran's retaliation did not include blocking oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had previously warned that it would close this important oil transport portal.

Economic, the initial value of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows that the US economy is expanding slightly faster than analysts expected. Another report shows that existing home sales rose in May despite pressure from rising borrowing costs.

Investors are looking at the final value of GDP and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices in the first quarter later this week, as well as the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who will look for clues about the recent direction of monetary policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.89% to 42,581.78 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.96% to 6025.17 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.94% to 19630.98 points.

The consumer discretionary sector led the gains among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500. Only the energy sector closed lower, affected by the decline in crude oil prices. Sportswear xmserving.company Nike and parcel delivery xmserving.company FedEx are expected to release results later this week.

Gold market

Gold prices fell on Monday, with investors favoring the dollar after the U.S. attacked key Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. The market is closely watching Iran's reaction. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3354.03 per ounce. US gold futures fell 0.5% to $3369.10.

KCMTrade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said the U.S. hit on Iran's nuclear facilities has caused the U.S. dollar to gain safe-haven buying in the foreign exchange market. Although the conflict poses risks, the dollar's rise has caused gold to pull back, causing its performance to be unusually sluggish.

Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel continue to fire missiles at each other. Asian stocks fell on Monday, with oil prices briefly hitting a five-month high, but there was no sign of panic selling in the entire market.

The Federal Reserve said in its latest monetary policy report to Congress on Friday that U.S. inflation is high to some extent and the job market is stable, but it suggests that it may have just begun to feel the impact of President Trump's tariffs and reiterated that the Fed can wait for a clearer situation before taking action.

Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao believes that on the technical side, spot gold may retest the support level of $3,348 per ounce, and may move towards $3,324 after falling below it.

Otherwise, spot silver rose 0.1% to $36.02 per ounce; platinum remained stable at $1,264.96; palladium rose 0.6% to $1,050.07.

Oil market

Oil prices plummeted more than $5 per barrel on Monday, down more than 7%, after Iran attacked the United States in QatarThe military base in retaliation for the U.S. attacks its nuclear facilities over the weekend, but did nothing to block oil and gas transport in the Strait of Hormuz.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 7.18%, the biggest daily drop since August 2022 at $71.48 per barrel. The settlement price of U.S. crude oil futures fell 7.22% to $68.51 a barrel. In after-hours trading, both indexes fell nearly 9%.

John Kilduff, partner at AgainCapital, said, "At present, oil flows are not the main target and may not be affected. I think Iran will conduct military retaliation against US military bases or try to strike more Israeli civilian targets."

After Iran retaliated, claiming that it launched a missile attack on Udid Air Base, the largest military base in the Middle East, Qatar, the oil market began to sell.

In the early Asian session, Brent crude oil prices rose nearly 6% as investors fear Iran's retaliation would disrupt oil exports in the Middle East Gulf region. Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in southern Iran, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil supply is to be transported to refineries around the world.

Iran, the third largest crude oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on Monday that the U.S. attack on its nuclear facility expanded the scope of legal targets for its armed forces.

A source with direct knowledge of the situation said that after the attack, freight or production of Qatar Energy xmserving.company was not interrupted; a U.S. military official told Reuters that no other U.S. military bases in the region were found to have been attacked by Iran, except for Qatar.

Kpler analyst Matt Smith said, "This is somewhat of a minority of the two evils. They seem unlikely to try to block the Strait of Hormuz."

Even so, ship tracking data shows that at least two supertankers turned around near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. military strike against Iran, as conflicts in the region force ships to accelerate, suspend or change their voyages.

EnergyAspects said in an article that if Iran or other forces launch a "pre-release signal" attack on a heavily defended U.S. military base without U.S. casualties, the attack could be the first step to ease tensions. “Unless there are signs that Iran will retaliate further, or Israel/US will escalate the situation, we may see some geopolitical risk premiums fall in the next few days.”

In view of the Middle East crisis not yet affecting supply, investors are still weighing the extent of the geopolitical risk premium. HSBC said on Monday that Brent crude is expected to soar above $80 a barrel given the increased likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz, but oil prices will fall again if the threat of interruption does not become a reality.

Foreign exchange market

The US dollar fell on Monday, after the USFed vice chairman of financial regulation Bowman said the Fed should consider a rate cut as soon as possible and that market expectations that Iran's response to the U.S. bombing of some of its nuclear facilities will be limited.

Federal Bowman said the timing of a rate cut may soon be as she is increasingly concerned about risks in the job market and less about the inflationary issues of tariffs.

Helen Given, head of trading at MonexUSA in Washington, said, "Bowman is a well-known hawkish person, so any signs of turning to easing and rate cuts she gives will keep the dollar lower."

Feder funds futures are currently priced at a 58 basis point cut this year, indicating that two 25 basis points expected to be a sure thing, and the possibility of a third rate cut is also rising.

Traders raised their bets on more rate cuts after Fed governor Waller said last Friday that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting, July 29-30. Before Waller made the xmserving.comments, traders had set the rate cut this year at 46 basis points.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby also said on Monday that the surge in tariffs has had a smaller impact on the economy so far than expected.

The dollar was boosted by the Federal Reserve's "hawkish hold on" last Wednesday, when the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Chairman Powell said policymakers expected inflation to rise in the summer due to Trump administration tariffs. Powell will testify before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The dollar was under pressure on Monday as Iran's retaliation against U.S. bombing seems more likely to be limited. Iranian military said on Monday Iran launched a missile strike against the U.S. Udid Air Base in Qatar. Iran called the attack "destructive and powerful", but U.S. officials said there were no casualties in the United States.

Earlier, the dollar was boosted by fears of widening conflict in the Middle East and investors took off riskier positions. The rise in the US dollar is mainly due to traders taking out the US dollar as a financing currency. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn GlobalForex in New York, said the deals include betting on stronger emerging market currencies with higher risk.

The yen also recovered most of the lost land that had earlier been on concerns about rising Japanese oil costs. Bank of America strategists said that if oil prices continue to rise, the US dollar/yen may rise again, noting that almost all of Japan's oil is to be imported, with more than 90% of which xmserving.comes from the Middle East.

The yen fell 0.09% against the US dollar New York late in trading to 146.22 yen, hitting 148.02 yen during the session, the weakest since May 13.

The US dollar index fell 0.32% to 98.45. It had risen to 99.42 earlier, the highest since May 30. The euro rose 0.39% against the dollar to $1.1567. Pound rose 0.51% against the dollar to $1.3517, earlierIt fell to $1.3367, the lowest since May 20.

International News

Trump: Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a full ceasefire

On June 23 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" that Israel and Iran have agreed to a full ceasefire. Trump's post was 18:00 on the 23rd. Trump said that the ceasefire between the two sides will start about 6 hours later, that is, 0:00 on the 24th. The ceasefire agreement involves two 12-hour ceasefire periods. Iran will initiate the first 12-hour ceasefire, and Israel will then conduct a second 12-hour ceasefire. After 24 hours, the war will officially end. Israel and Iran have not yet made any relevant official statements. While Trump announced that the two sides agreed to a ceasefire, according to reporters from the Central Taiwan Taiwan, a few minutes ago, a huge explosion occurred in the northeastern area of ​​Tehran, the capital of Iran. People living in the area told reporters that before the explosion, "heard the roar of fighter planes flying by."

Iran confirms that it agrees to a ceasefire

Senior Iranian officials confirm that Tehran has agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Israel mediated by Qatar and proposed by the United States.

The U.S. Supreme Court allows Trump to restart the procedures for rapid repatriation of immigrants from abroad

On June 23 local time, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to restart the procedures for rapid repatriation of immigrants to countries other than their country of origin, temporarily lifting a court order that requires immigrants to have the opportunity to object to the repatriation decision. Earlier, U.S. immigration officials sent eight people onto a plane to South Sudan in May, a move found by U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy in Boston violated his order. It is reported that the immigrants were convicted of serious crimes in the United States, and immigration officials said they could not be quickly deported to their country of origin. Authorities eventually landed the plane at a US naval base in Djibouti, where the immigrants were placed in a modified container.

The Fed will no longer include reputation risks in bank inspections

The Fed said on Monday that it will no longer include reputation risks in bank inspections. The central bank said it had begun to review the terms of reputational risks in regulatory materials and replace them with more specific financial risk discussions when appropriate. "This adjustment does not change the Fed's expectations for banks to maintain strong risk management to ensure safety and robustness," the Fed said in a statement.

Federal Goulsby: If tariffs do not lead to high inflation, interest rate cuts will resume

Federal Goulsby said that since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, there has been a lack of obvious inflationary pressure, which may allow the Fed to cut interest rates again. He recalled that the Fed expected to lower interest rates at the beginning of the year and suspended interest rate cuts, mainly because of policy uncertainty. "If we don't see inflation caused by these tariff hikes, it seems to me that we have never left what I'm talking about the road to gold before April 2," Gulsby said. He xmserving.compared the tariffs to "throwing it into the air very much," he said.It's so dusty, so it's hard to see if you're still on the road." "If there's no dust in the air, then I think we should keep going (rate cuts). ”

Freight rates for tankers in the Middle East have risen to more than two years High regional shipping risks

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, tanker freight rates continue to rise. After the U.S. attack on Iran over the weekend, ship owners demanded an increase in the cost of docking at Persian Gulf ports. The ship owners were willing to continue to enter the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz because ship owners asked for an increase in fees. Freight rates have now more than doubled xmserving.compared to before Israel launched missiles on Iran for the first time. Navy of many countries warned of rising regional shipping risks, but shipping seems to be basically unaffected. “This is attributed to serious regional conflicts, uncertainty among Iranian states and non-state actors, and mixed information,” JMIC said in a daily update. “JMIC recommends that the shipping industry be alert to the ever-changing security environment and be prepared for plans to mitigate threats and risks. ”

The leaders of the UK and Ukrainian leaders held talks to emphasize bilateral cooperation and sanctions against Russia

On June 23 local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky had lunch with British King Charles at Windsor Castle. Afterwards, British Prime Minister Stamer met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at No. 10 Downing Street. Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed on social media that day that he had a meeting with British Prime Minister Stamer. Zelensky expressed his gratitude to the UK for its support to Ukraine. During this meeting, Zelensky explained the key directions of Ukraine's future cooperation, including achieving the maximum Political and diplomatic coordination, deepening cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense and strengthening sanctions against Russia have prevented it from expanding arms production.

ECB Venezuel: Given the high uncertainty, the ECB cannot make a xmserving.commitment to the interest rate path

ECB Venezuel said that given the US trade policy and the situation in the Middle East have cast a shadow on the outlook, the ECB should not promise some interest rate path. Negel said on Monday: "In addition to the development of the situation in the Middle East, the biggest uncertainty in our future monetary policy process is undoubtedly the unpredictable U.S. trade policy. "He said it was not only unclear how strong the impact would be, but it was also ultimately uncertain whether President Trump's tariff measures would lead to inflation or would suppress inflation. "So it is wise for us as members of the governing board to continue to maintain flexibility and data dependence," Nagel said. ”

Feder heavyweight official supports a July rate cut and suggests it will relax capital requirements

Federal Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman, who supervises, warns that the current leverage requirement has had unexpected consequences in the market. Regarding interest rates, she expressed support for a cut of interest rates as early as July. Bowman said that given that the leverage rule limits lenders’ transactions in the $29 trillion Treasury market, it is now “to be a time to revisit” this key capital buffering mechanism. “The impact of leverage on bank market makers may bring a wider range of Treasury marketsConsequences,” Bowman said in a written speech at a research conference in Prague on Monday, “Once new unintended consequences are found – issues that are not foreseeable in regulation making, we must consider how early regulatory and policy decisions can be reexamined. ”

U.S. manufacturing growth is stable. Two inflation indicators hit their highest in the past three years. Thanks to the accelerated employment growth, U.S. manufacturing growth was stable in June, but the two inflation indicators rose to the highest level since July 2022. According to data released on Monday, the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in June remained stable at 52, the highest since February. The index exceeded 50, indicating that the manufacturing industry is in an expansion state. Raw material funding The pay price index rose 5.4 points to 70, the biggest increase in four years. Price acceptance indicators also achieved approximate gains, showing that producers pass on cost increases, including import tariffs, to customers. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement, “While domestic demand, especially increased demand in manufacturing, will drive job growth, this growth is partly driven by increased inventory, which is often associated with price increases triggered by tariffs and supply concerns. "Williamson added, "inventory increase may gradually fade in the next few months." Manufacturing employment growth rate is the fastest in a year.

Domestic news

The number of participants hits a new high, the Chinese economy is attracting attention, and the world focuses on Tianjin Summer Davos Forum

World Economic Forum will hold the 16th Annual Meeting of New Leaders (the "2025 Summer Davos Forum") in Tianjin, China from June 24 to 26. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 23rd, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council will attend the Summer Davos Forum from June 24 to 25.

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