There is new progress in the Iranian nuclear issue, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 20

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.16%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.21%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.23%. The German DAX index rose 0.91%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.45%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.55%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.85%.

2. Market news interpretation

There is new progress in the Iran nuclear issue, and oil prices fluctuate sharply in the short term

Some analysts pointed out that some of the headlines on the progress of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States are contradictory, causing oil prices to fall, then rise, and then expand their declines again. The latest news said a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was "ready" to discuss the issue of restricting its uranium enrichment, but it then quickly stated that Iran "will undoubtedly reject the proposal for zero uranium enrichment" "especially now, under Israel's attack." "The role of European powers is now more prominent, as Tehran is reluctant to engage with the United States during the Israeli attacks." After providing a glimmer of hope for negotiations, clarifications about actually no change led to further declines in oil prices on Friday. Oil prices were expected to record a third week rise after the White House postponed a decision on whether the United States would participate in the Israel-Iran conflict earlier today.

Iranian media says senior adviser to the Iranian supreme leader is still alive

Iran's Tasnim news agency denied Iran's highest today (June 20)Ali Shamhani, a senior adviser to leader Khamenei and former secretary of the Iranian National Supreme Security Council, passed away "sincerely injured." According to reports, Shamhani is "alive". With the efforts of doctors, Shamhani, who was seriously injured in the Israeli attack a week ago, "had a stable injury." Iran has not confirmed the relevant information yet. Last Saturday, Iranian media reported that Shamhani was seriously injured and died in the attack on June 13 of Israel.

Shipping giant Maersk suspends ships at the port of Haifa, Israel

World shipping giant Denmark Maersk Group issued a statement on the 20th that it suspends its ships at the port of Haifa, Israel due to conflicts between Israel and Iran. Maersk said the decision was made after a "careful analysis of risk reporting in the context of ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, especially considering the potential risks of berthing at Israel's ports and the possible impact on crew safety." Maersk also said in a statement that at present, the xmserving.company's established operations in the region have not been further disrupted.

Trump's immigration policy triggered a rebound in public opinion

⑴ The Trump administration's recent radical stance on immigration has triggered strong reactions from the American people, and its support rate has declined. ⑵ Federal officials have stepped up searches of workplaces and farms in an attempt to fulfill Trump’s promise to deport illegal immigrants on a massive scale, but the move has sparked panic and street protests in the immigrant xmserving.communities. ⑶There are differences within the Trump administration on immigration policies. On the one hand, it faces pressure from the business xmserving.community and some Republicans to relax law enforcement, and on the other hand, it is driven by its basic demands to accelerate actions. ⑷ Republican lawmakers from multiple states openly oppose the current immigration law enforcement efforts, believing that criminal immigrants should be given priority over long-term law-abiding immigrants. ⑸ Polls show that Trump’s approval rating on immigration and deportation has turned negative. A survey earlier this month showed that only 43% of respondents agreed with their immigration policy performance, and 54% said they disagree.

UK fiscal dilemma intensifies

⑴AJBell's Danny Hewson pointed out that the latest UK public borrowing data further intensifies market speculation that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves may announce more spending cuts or tax increases in the next budget. ⑵ Despite the increase in tax revenue, rising operating costs and inflation-linked welfare expenditures have left financial pressures still huge. ⑶Heusen stressed that if Reeves wants to abide by fiscal rules and provide funding for spending plans, she will face severe economic challenges, and uncertainty in future defense spending may also exhaust limited fiscal space.

Turkish lira faces the risk of further depreciation

⑴Turkish lira may continue to decline, affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts. xmserving.commerzbank analyst Tata Goss pointed out that the Turkish central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 46% on Thursday, but removed the wording that could tighten monetary policy, suggesting a possible rate cut in the future. ⑵Gos believes that as inflation slows down, the central bank may restart interest rate cuts, which will lead to accelerated depreciation of the liravalue. ⑶ According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the US dollar rose 0.2% to 39.5400 lira, after hitting a three-month high of 39.6830 lira.

Japan plans to further reduce ultra-long-term government bond sales

⑴ The Japanese government plans to further reduce the sales of ultra-long-term government bonds in its current fiscal year's treasury bond issuance plan, with the reduction exceeding the initial plan. ⑵The adjustment of the issuance plan, coupled with the Bank of Japan's decision this week to slow down the pace of bond purchases from the next fiscal year, reflects the overall efforts of policymakers to alleviate market concerns that ultra-long-term Treasury yields have soared to record highs. ⑶ The revised issuance plan will be submitted to the primary trader (financial institutions that serve as market makers) for discussion at Friday's meeting. ⑷ An official from the Ministry of Finance told reporters after the meeting that the Ministry of Finance has not implemented the operation of repurchasing ultra-long-term government bonds issued at low interest rates in the past. ⑸ The government does not rule out the possibility of considering repurchases in the future, but if such measures are taken, the needs and feasibility need to be discussed. ⑹ According to the revised issuance plan, the Japanese government will cut sales of 20-year government bonds by 1.8 trillion yen (about 12.38 billion US dollars) to 10.2 trillion yen; sales of 30-year government bonds will be reduced by 900 billion yen; sales of 40-year government bonds will be reduced by 500 billion yen. ⑺ From next month, sales of 20-year Treasury bonds will be cut by 200 billion yen per auction, up from the 100 billion yen cut shown in the draft seen by Reuters on Thursday. The 20-year Treasury bond cuts are even greater to reflect the opinions of market participants. ⑻For the fiscal year ending March next year, total Japanese government bond sales will drop by 500 billion yen to 171.8 trillion yen, and the reduction in ultra-long-term government bonds will be partially offset by increasing the issuance of short-term notes. ⑽Repurchase of old bonds will enhance the liquidity of these bonds, making it easier for bond traders to trade their securities and help clear their balance sheets, thus helping to smoothly issue new bonds. ⑾The last time the Japanese Ministry of Finance carried out a repurchase of fixed coupons was in the fiscal years 2002-2008, when the government arranged a steady pace of large-scale redemptions for 2008. ⑿Similar to the repurchase operations resumed by the U.S. Treasury Department last year, the implementation of such measures may take some time because it may require budgeting based on the size of the repurchase to raise funds and adjust the trading system.

Turkish President Erdogan called for ease of conflict

⑴On June 20, 2025, news from the Turkish Presidential Office showed that Erdogan said Turkey is working hard to end the conflict, restore peace, and will continue to take relevant actions. ⑵ He further pointed out that the escalation of violence caused by Israel's attacks could have a negative impact on the region and Europe, especially in terms of potential immigration issues and the risk of nuclear leakage. ⑶ Erdogan had a phone call with German Chancellor Mertz to discuss the conflict between Israel and Iran, bilateral relations and regional issues. ⑷ He stressed that the way to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue lies in negotiations, and that Israel's attack on Iran has made regional securityThreats are pushed to the highest level.

The Hungarian Central Bank expects to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged

⑴ On June 20, 2025, Reuters reported that the Hungarian Central Bank is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% for the ninth consecutive month on Tuesday. Despite weak economic growth, rebound in inflation and rising oil prices have limited room for interest rate cuts. ⑵ According to data from the European Union Statistics Office, Hungary and neighboring Romania recorded the highest inflation rate in the EU in the first quarter of 2025, making it difficult for the central banks of the two countries to cut interest rates. ⑶ The 12 analysts surveyed by Reuters all expect the Hungarian central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Despite high inflation, the market still expects the Hungarian central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points by the end of the year. ⑷ Morgan Stanley said: "Despite weak economic activity and eased labor market pressure, we still expect the Hungarian central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%. "⑸ The Hungarian central bank has raised its inflation expectations for 2025 for three consecutive quarters, and the rise in price erodes the positive interest rate space the central bank hopes to maintain. ⑹ Hungary's inflation rate in May rebounded to 4.4% from its April low, surpassing analyst expectations, and a sharp rise in food and service prices offset a sharp drop in fuel costs. ⑺Analysts warn that soaring oil prices may further intensify inflationary pressures since Israel's attack on Iran. ⑻Hungary inflation rebounded, although Prime Minister Orban's government has imposed controls on food prices and requires banks, telecom xmserving.companies and insurance xmserving.companies to abandon planned increase in fees. ⑼ The Hungarian central bank said that the upward risk of inflation brought about by rising tariffs and service prices has made monetary policy need to remain tight, despite the continued weak economy.

United States said that one person was attacked in Odessa and many others were injured. Russia has no response yet.

The Ukrainian Attorney General's Office reported on June 20 local time that in the early morning of that day, Russia used drones to launch a large-scale attack on Odessa, a southern Ukrainian city, killing one person and injuring 14 people; a 23-storey building and several apartment buildings were damaged to varying degrees, and one of the apartment buildings was xmserving.completely destroyed. In addition, an educational institution, shops and residents' cars were also damaged. Russia has no response to this yet.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1518, an increase of 0.21%. Before the New York Stock Market, the price of (EUR/USD) settled with its recent gains in the intraday level, supported by its trading above the EMA50 and dominated by a major bullish trend on a short-term basis and trading along a slash, on the other hand, the (RSI) reaches overbought levels xmserving.compared to the price action, which may temporarily slow down the upcoming rally.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3494, up0.19%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (GBPUSD) price expanded its gains in the last intraday trading, retesting the key resistance of 1.3475, as a powerful attempt to recover part of previous losses, breaking a major bullish trend line on a short-term basis, in addition to the (RSI) reaching an exaggerated overbought level, the negative pressure from its trading below the EMA50 continues, indicating the beginning of a negative divergence, especially with the emergence of negative overlap signals, indicating that the positive momentum is quickly gone and that the trade is close to a reversal.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3347.92, a drop of 0.67%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose on the last trading day, trying to regain some of the previous lost ground, as it broke through the bullish trend line on a short-term basis and after the price successfully unloaded its oversold level, in addition to negative signals on the (RSI), its trading below the EMA50 also had negative pressure.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 36.069, a drop of 0.83%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) rose in the last intraday trading, trying to recover some of the losses and trying to unload some obvious oversold conditions on the (RSI), especially when positive signals start to appear, dominance of bearish correction waves and their impact through short-term breakouts of bullish trend lines, negative pressure due to its trading price below EMA50 continues.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 73.310, a drop of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices rose in recent intraday trading, ready to attack the key resistance level of $75.00, after gaining positive momentum and successfully lifting the (RSI) overbought state, negative pressure from trading above the EMA50 continues, with a short-term major bullish trend dominating and trading along a slash.

4. Institutional View

Dutch International: The euro rebounds but the increase may be limited

Dutch International Group analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that as the market digests some geopolitical risks brought by the exchange rate, the euro rebounds to a critical 1.15 against the dollar, but the increase should still beHowever limited. Earlier news that Trump will decide within two weeks whether the United States will directly intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, eases concerns about U.S. action immediately. The situation in the Middle East remains too unstable to make strong directional predictions about the euro-dollar, but the overall risk of the U.S. joining the conflict may prevent the euro-dollar from retesting 1.1600 in the xmserving.coming days.

Institutions: The UK economy seems to be losing momentum

A growing number of signs are showing that the UK economy is in recession. Paul Dales of Capito Macro wrote in a report that the strong start of the United States by 2025 has ended. Data released on Friday showed that the UK retail sales fell more than expected in May, with the largest decline in retail sales since December 2023. This erased sales growth in the first few months of the year, which contributed to the unexpectedly strong growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending in the UK may still outperform other sectors of the economy this year, with consumer confidence improving, but it looks like GDP in the second quarter is quite weak.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: There is new progress in the Iran nuclear issue. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 20" was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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