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market analysis

Gold continues to be under pressure, European and American upper edge suppresses

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Gold continues to be under pressure, and the upper edge of the European and American range is suppressed." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

Gold price trend is due to multiple factors. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on June 18. Although it suggested that there was room for borrowing costs to fall, Chairman Powell warned not to over-expect interest rate cuts. His hawkish remarks cooled down expectations for interest rate cuts, and gold was under pressure under high interest rate expectations.

In terms of geopolitical affairs, the air war between Israel and Iran escalated on June 19, and the two sides attacked each other, and the tension caused global concerns. Gold is sought after as a safe-haven asset. The uncertainty of the US role in conflict further pushes up risk aversion sentiment, supporting the stabilization of gold prices at low levels, and diplomatic efforts are difficult to eliminate geopolitical risks, and risk aversion demand may continue.

The US dollar index performed strongly this week. Although it fell back in the late trading, the overall strength suppressed gold demand. However, geopolitical uncertainty offsets some of the impact. In addition, the Trump administration's tariff policies may push up inflation, and rising inflation is good for gold, but if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts due to inflation, high interest rates will suppress gold prices. In the medium and long term, Federal Reserve policies and tariff implementation are the keys to determining the trend of gold prices.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a trend of rising and falling on Thursday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 99.135 on the day, and fell to 98.725 at the lowest, and finally closed at 98.755. Looking back at the market performance on Wednesday, during the early trading period, the price fluctuated first and then increased again. The market adjusted after the European session. At the same time, the US market rose without breaking the previous day's high point. It was under pressure again during the overnight period and broke down the early trading low point. Finally, the daily line ended with a big negative. In response to the subsequent need to pay attention to the rise again after the fluctuation.

From the multi-period analysis, the price is suppressed in the 100.35 area resistance, thenFrom a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 98.70 position over time. As the author said, the price fluctuates after further testing and piercing this position. We need to pay attention to further fluctuations and then stabilize again. At the same time, the four-hour price fell below the four-hour support position in the early morning of yesterday. The market is currently inclined to fluctuate, and the subsequent price will only exert force after it breaks again. We will temporarily pay attention to the 98.40 regional support in the short term. At the same time, after yesterday's price rose and fell, the short term is currently focused on the support of the 98.45-55 range. The price can continue to look upward in this area, and will accelerate after once again standing firm in the daily line and four-hour resistance.

The US dollar index has a long range of 98.45-55, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 98.70-99-99.30

Gold

In terms of gold, the overall gold price was fluctuating on Thursday, with the highest price rising to 3387.77 on the day, falling to 3347.43 on the lowest price, and closing at 3370.37 on the market. On Thursday, gold continued to be under pressure and fell after testing the four-hour resistance during the early trading period and broke the previous day's low point. The price tested to the 3350 regional support and then fluctuated again. However, from the trend, the price continued to be suppressed at the four-hour resistance position, and finally closed at the close of the cross, and the overall overall will continue to be under further pressure. Therefore, the price can be under pressure under daily and four-hour resistance.

From multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price runs at the rhythm in May as the author said, and the final cross state. For June, focus on the gains and losses of May high and low points, the price will only be a real break at this position, and the long-term watershed is at 2780. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3255-60 area. So from the perspective of the medium-term, it is still in the mid-term bull market, and only the price will be further under pressure if it breaks the weekly support. Judging from the daily level, yesterday's price broke through the 3360-day watershed, and today's Friday's price was weak again, which indicates that subsequent prices are expected to be under further pressure. At the same time, pay attention to the 3370 regional resistance in four hours. In one hour, the price is suppressed in the position where the previous upward trend line is retracing. As the market fluctuates and falls in the short term, we are temporarily paying attention to the resistance of the current downward trend line area. At the same time, this area is also the daily line and four-hour resistance area. Below, we will pay attention to the 3330-3315-3310 area. If the subsequent price is extremely weak, it is expected to test the 3270-3300 area.

The gold 3365 area continues to be under pressure, defending $10, and targeting 3330-3315-3310

European and the United States

European and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States generally showed an upward trend on Thursday. The price fell to 1.1445 on the day and rose to 1.1499 on the spot and closed at 1.1496 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Thursday, prices fluctuated in the early trading for a long time and then fell continuously. Then, the European trading stopped rising during the period, but the price did not break through the high point of the morning trading. After that, the US market bottomed out and rebounded and made great efforts to break through the high point of the morning trading and the four-hour resistance position. Finally, the daily line ended with a big positive. For the subsequent European and American market, we should not be too bullish for the future, and beware of the market being under pressure again after the market fluctuates.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1255 area, and from the perspective of the mid-line, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, as time goes by, we need to focus on the watershed of the 1.1470 area, and pay attention to the gains and losses of this position in the future. The gains and losses of this position determine the direction of the subsequent band. According to the four-hour level, you need to pay attention to the 1.1490 position. The price is currently consolidating at this position, so it cannot be laid out at this position for the time being. The price temporarily fluctuates between 1.1450-1.1530, and the price is currently in the upper edge area. We will pay attention to further fluctuations and under pressure in the future. After the subsequent breaks the four-hour support and daily support, it will further continue.

Europe and the United States have a short range of 1.1520-30, defense is 40 points, target 1.1480-1.1450

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Friday, June 20, 2025

①Pre-determined Russian President Putin delivered a speech

②14:00 German May PPI monthly rate

③14:00 UK May seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate

④14:40 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda made a speech

⑤20:30 Canada April retail sales monthly rate

⑥20:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in June

⑦22:00 Eurozone June Consumer Confidence Index in June

⑧22:00 US May Consultant Chamber of xmserving.commerce Leading Index Monthly Rate

⑨The next day 01:00 US to June 20 total oil drilling rigs

⑩The next day 02:30 New York crude oil July futures xmserving.completed the last on-site transaction

Note: The above is only personal opinion and strategy, for reference and xmserving.communication only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and is not used as a basis for placing an order.

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