Focus on Bank of Japan's resolution, gold prices are affected by traders' profits, Trump calls for withdrawal from Tehran

Basic news

On Tuesday (June 17, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3395, and gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday as traders took profit after the gold price hit an eight-week high. At the same time, the market was concerned about tensions between Israel and Iran and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week; U.S. crude oil rose more than 1%, trading around $71.10 per barrel. Although oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday due to reports that Iran is seeking to end hostilities with Israel, Trump called on everyone to evacuate Tehran in the morning, increasing market uncertainty.

Focus on the Bank of Japan's resolutions, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference on monetary policy, and the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report.

Stock Markets

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday as the Israel-Iran conflict did not affect crude oil production and exports, eased investors' concerns that rising energy prices could stimulate inflation.

Oil prices fell more than 1% on the hope that Israel and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement after launching missile strikes on each other in the past few days. Iran calls on U.S. President Trump to put pressure on Israel to force a ceasefire to end the four-day air battle, while the Israeli Prime Minister said his country is on the "road to victory."

Two Iranian sources and three regional sources said Tehran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to put pressure on U.S. President Trump to use his influence on Israel to prompt the country to agree to an immediate ceasefire with Iran in exchange for Tehran's flexibility in nuclear negotiations.

Villere&Co's portfolio in New OrleansGeorge Young said, "The real variable lies in what will happen to oil prices... Any small geopolitical change can have a considerable impact on the oil industry and the economy as a whole. If consumers are worried about inflation and are reluctant to consume, it will directly affect the revenue of the xmserving.company, no matter which economic field you are investing in."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75% to 42515.09 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.94% to 6033.11 points; and the Nasdaq rose 1.52% to 19701.21 points. The Nasdaq Index hit its biggest single-day percentage gain since May 27.

Investors are still waiting for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and the market generally expects policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged.

The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data shows that the money market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, with a 61.1% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points.

CressetCapital's chief investment officer in Chicago, Jack Ablin said, "Interest rates are still high, so this is a bit difficult to understand, probably because the market still expects a rebound in inflation. Even if there are no other factors, just increasing uncertainty, plus tariffs, may prompt the Fed to remain a wait-and-see attitude."

The market is waiting for economic data released this week, including retail sales, import prices and the number of people who requested unemployment benefits every week.

Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P Index, the technology and xmserving.communications services sector led the rise, while the utility sector performed the worst.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 3.03%, with chip maker AMD up 8.81%, after PiperSandler raised its target price.

United parcels and FedEx both rose 1.1%, after the Trump Group launched a private-brand mobile network called "Trump Mobile" and designated the two xmserving.companies as transportation partners. US Steel jumped 5.1% after Trump approved Japan Iron to acquire the xmserving.company for $14.9 billion.

Gold market

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday as traders took profit after the gold price hit an eight-week high, while markets focused on tensions between Israel and Iran and the Fed's policy meeting this week.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,392.86 per ounce, hitting its highest level since April 22 earlier in the session. Last week, the price of gold rose by more than 1%. The settlement price of US gold futures fell 1% to $3,417.30.

David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said: "Remember that gold prices rose in the past few trading days mainly due to conflicts between Israel and Iran. Today, we are seeing more of a pullback, which may be due to profit-taking after rising gold prices."

Iran huhCalling for U.S. President Trump to force Israel to cease fire, the only way to end the four-sky battle, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said his country is on the "road to victory." Meanwhile, the leaders of the G7 (G7) began holding their annual summit in Canada.

Investors are also paying attention to the Fed's two-day policy meeting, which will end on Wednesday. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Meger said, "Given the current economy faces multiple uncertainties from tariffs to geopolitical conflicts, the Fed clearly tends to keep interest rates unchanged. It would not be surprising that the Fed delays interest rate cuts and continues to adopt a delay strategy."

Spot silver remained flat at $36.33 per ounce; platinum rose 2% to $1,252.57 per ounce; palladium rose 0.8% to $1,036.10 per ounce.

Oil market

Oil prices fell $1 in volatile trading on Monday, with reports that Iran is seeking to end hostilities with Israel, which increases the possibility of a ceasefire and alleviates concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply in the region.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell by $1 to $73.23 per barrel, while the settlement price of U.S. crude oil futures fell by 1.66% to $71.77 per barrel.

Two Iranian sources and three regional sources told Reuters that two Iranian sources and three regional sources told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to put pressure on U.S. President Trump to use his influence on Israel to prompt the country to agree to an immediate ceasefire with Iran in exchange for Tehran's flexibility in nuclear negotiations. Previously, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran was seeking a ceasefire.

Risui analyst Robert Yawger said traders have reduced bets that both sides' bombings could evolve into a larger regional war and threaten energy infrastructure. Oil prices soared more than 7% last Friday as Israel began bombing Iran after rumors that Iran was about to develop an atomic bomb.

Rory Johnston, an energy analyst and founder of xmserving.commodityContext xmserving.communications, said that from technical indicators, Friday's soar brought oil prices into the "overbought zone" and usually declined after that.

Both Israel and Iran have launched air strikes on each other, including attacks on energy infrastructure, but major oil export facilities have not been attacked yet. "The Israelis have not moved Hag Island yet, so that's the situation now," said Yawger of Ruisui's Yawger when talking about Hag Island, an oil export center. "Any attack on Hag Island could cause oil prices to soar to $90 a barrel. Iran is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and currently produces about 3.3 million barrels per day and exports exceed 2 million barrels per day.

Foreign Market

The dollar rose against safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Monday but weakened against most major currencies, with investors closely watching the battle between Israel and Iran looking for signs of a possible escalation into a larger regional conflict and awaiting meetings of several major central banks this week.

Tehran, however, has asked Gulf leaders to put pressure on U.S. President Trump to use his influence on Israel to promote a ceasefire in exchange for Iran's flexibility in nuclear negotiations. This helped the US dollar to some extent recover lost territory against the Japanese yen and Swiss francs.

Nevertheless, market participants are still considering the possibility that Iran may attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transport portal. This move may exacerbate the wider economic risks brought about by disruptions in oil supply in the Middle East.

At the same time, as tensions in the Middle East intensify, the US military has transferred a large number of tankers to Europe to provide Trump with options, and the US Nimitz aircraft carrier is also heading to the Central and Eastern Conference as scheduled.

The US dollar rose 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 144.65 yen at the end of the trading day, and rose nearly 0.4% earlier on Monday. Until recently, the dollar has been the ultimate haven for geopolitical or financial turmoil. The euro rose 0.23% against the dollar to $1.1576.

The US dollar rose against the Swiss franc to 0.8136 Swiss francs. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.25% to 98.02.

David Song, senior strategist at Forex.com, said, "In addition to the dollar exchange rate consolidation, risk-sensitive currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are not very volatile, suggesting that the conflict between Iran and Israel has not affected investor confidence."

Currencies that are positively associated with risks, such as the Australian dollar and the New York dollar, rose 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. Norwegian kroner with oil exposure remained flat, reaching its highest since early 2023 earlier.

The US dollar index has fallen by more than 9% this year. Investors rebuy the dollar last Friday as Trump's move to reshape the global trade order exacerbated economic uncertainty.

Analysts, however, are not convinced that this trend will continue until the tariff situation becomes clearer.

The Federal Reserve will release its latest policy decision on Wednesday, with the conflict between Israel and Iran increasing the xmserving.complexity faced by policy makers.

Around three weeks before Trump sets a deadline for the trade deal, investors are still nervous, and the U.S. agreement with major trading partners such as the EU and Japan has not yet been signed. They will look for progress made in any bilateral talks with the United States on the sidelines of the G7 Leaders' Summit in Canada.

The top priority of this week is a series of central bank monetary policy decisions. The focus is on Wednesday's Fed's resolution. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors will pay attention to how the Fed views recent data. These data generally show that economic activity is softening, but the risk of rising price pressures remains high.

According to Nikkei on Saturday, the Bank of Japan is considering halving its quarterly reduction in its purchase of Japanese government bonds to 200 billion yen ($1.4 billion) from April 2026.

The central banks of the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway will also announce their policy decisions this week.

International News

Affected by the attack, all facilities in the Haifa oil refinery in Israel have been closed

On the 16th local time, Bazan Group, the largest oil refinery operator in Israel, said that all facilities in the factory have been forced to close because Iran launched a missile attack on its oil refinery in Haifa Bay. In a statement to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, Bazan Group said that the power plant was severely damaged due to damage to the facilities and all facilities of the refinery and its subsidiaries have been closed. Bazan Group also said the xmserving.company is working with Israeli Electric Power xmserving.company to restore power supply to refinery facilities. It is reported that Iran launched an attack on the Haifa oil refinery in the early morning of the 16th, killing 3 people.

Netanyahu said Israeli actions will not stop and is systematically destroying Iran's nuclear targets

On the evening of the 16th local time, in a pre-recorded online press conference, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu introduced Israel's progress in xmserving.combating Iran so far. Netanyahu said that so far, Israel has killed 10 senior Iranian nuclear scientists. He said that Israeli side's actions will not stop, and there are still some targets that Israel will find them. Israel has launched an "extremely heavy blow" to Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility, destroying Iran's factories that make centrifuges. Netanyahu said Israel is systematically continuing to destroy Iran's nuclear targets.

Ecuador's main oil pipeline ruptures and suspends crude oil delivery

On the 16th local time, Ecuador's National Oil xmserving.company reported that due to the rupture of the country's main crude oil transportation pipeline "Ecuador's Oil Pipeline System", the Ecuadorian National Oil xmserving.company immediately launched an emergency plan to close the valves of the oil pipeline system and suspend pumping operations. According to the report, the rupture of the pipeline system was caused by a mass incident. Ethiopian Petroleum also said that it had sent professional and technical personnel to the scene of the accident and no other information has been released yet. The Ecuadorian oil pipeline system is operated by Ecuadorian Petroleum Corporation and is the country's main crude oil transportation trunk line with a total length of 497 kilometers and a rated transportation capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

The US government may restrict the entry of citizens of 36 countries

According to US media reports recently, the US government is considering further expanding the travel ban, which may prohibit citizens of 36 countries from entering the United States. According to reports, an internal memorandum of the US State Department shows that new countries that may face visa bans or other entry restrictions include 25 African countries including Egypt, Djibouti, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, several Caribbean countries, as well as several Asian countries and Pacific island countries.

Iranian President Says Tehran Does Not Want to Expand the War with Israel, but will respond "proportionally"

Iranian President Pezeshkian said on Monday that Iran does not want to "expand the scope of war with Israel" but will respond "proportionally" to any attacks. Pezeshkian made the remarks on Monday on a phone call with Turkish President Erdogan, Iran's National News Agency. Pezeshkian said Israel has killed Iranian civilians, scientists and military leaders. "Iran did not launch this war, but would respond proportionally based on the extent of the attack." He also said that Iran's participation in nuclear negotiations with the United States "is determined only by Israel's cessation of attacks on regional countries."

Iranian Foreign Minister: Trump can "discipline" Netanyahu with just one phone call

Iranian Foreign Minister Aragic said that US President Trump can "discipline" Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu with just one phone call, thus paving the way for diplomacy. "If Trump sincerely talks about diplomacy and wants to end the war, then the next steps will be natural... Just a call from Washington can discipline people like Netanyahu." The Iranian foreign minister also pointed out that the United States' participation in the military conflict between Israel and Iran will destroy any prospects for a negotiated settlement.

Russia says the United States has canceled a new round of bilateral consultations between Russia and the United States

Russia said that the United States has canceled a new round of bilateral consultations aimed at eliminating the "stimulus factors" in bilateral relations and restoring the work of the diplomatic missions between the two countries. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova posted on Telegram on Monday that Moscow "hopefully they won't be suspended for too long" but did not explain the reason for the cancellation of the consultations. The U.S. State Department did not immediately respond to a request for xmserving.comment.

The Israeli-Iran conflict is worrying. Oil transportation flows in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet changed significantly.

The freight volume in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped slightly, but the key oil infrastructure has not yet been significantly disturbed, eased the most serious concerns about the conflict between Iran and Israel. The United Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said on Monday that 111 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on June 15, a slight decrease from 116 on June 12. Israel launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and senior military xmserving.commanders the next day. This narrow waterway carries about one-fifth of the world's oil transportation. “The number of freighters passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped slightly,” JMIC said. Despite some attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, the most sensitive oil facilities, including the Strait of Hormuz and the main export terminal, Kharg Island, have not been affected for the time being.

Trump has not signed a draft statement from the leaders of the G7 group calling on Israel and Iran to ease conflict

U.S. President Donald? Trump has not signed a draft statement from the G7 Canadian meeting. Officials familiar with the matter said the draft calls on Iran and Israel to ease the conflict. The statement also pointed out that Israel has the right to defend itself and stressed that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons. In this main workHours before the National Summit for Industrialization, delegations from the G7 were still in consultation on the wording of the draft statement.

The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier diverted to the Middle East

Data from MarineTraffic, a ship tracking website, showed that on the morning of the same day, the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier canceled its original plan to dock at a port in central Vietnam and changed its route to the Middle East. It is reported that the reception of the aircraft carrier originally scheduled to be at the central Vietnamese port on June 20 has also been cancelled.

Domestic News

Ministry of Finance: From July 1, 2025, Dalian and Hubei Province have implemented tax refund policies for overseas passengers' shopping departures

Ministry of Finance announced that the Dalian Municipal People's Government and Hubei Provincial People's Government shall apply for filing to the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs on the Supervision of Customs for Shopping and Tax Refund Business of Overseas Travelers' Shopping and Tax Refund Business, and the Announcement of the State Administration of Taxation on Amending the and other relevant regulations. From July 1, 2025, Dalian City and Hubei Province will implement a tax refund policy for overseas passengers shopping departures in accordance with relevant regulations.

May macro policies continued to make efforts to support the stable operation of the economy

At the press conference held by the State Council today, a relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics said that judging from the relevant indicators in May, macro policies continued to make efforts to promote the expansion of demand, production growth, improvement of expectations, and release of vitality, and provide important support for the stable operation of the economy. From the perspective of domestic demand, the driving role of consumer goods trade-in policy and equipment renewal and transformation policy continues to emerge.

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