Supply worries support oil prices to climb nearly 4%, risk aversion rebounds Gold prices hit their highest in more than three weeks

Basic news

On Tuesday (June 3, Beijing time), spot gold rose, trading around 3390, gold prices rose more than 2% on Monday, hitting the highest level in more than three weeks. The weakening of the US dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, has driven investors' demand for safe-haven assets; U.S. crude oil rose, trading around 63.10 US dollars per barrel, oil prices climbed nearly 4% on Monday. Although the Group of Oil-producing countries OPEC+ insisted on a production increase plan, the burning wildfires of Canadian oil-producing provinces threatened supply, and President Trump's new tariff threats put pressure on the dollar.

Focus on China's Caixin data during the day, the RBA released minutes of the June monetary policy meeting, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech, and South Korea is initially scheduled to hold a presidential election on June 3.

Stock and P.P. 500 closed higher on Monday, with investors still optimistic about trade dialogue between the United States and its trading partners despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest threat to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

Trump said late Friday that he plans to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% starting on Wednesday, according to a draft letter to negotiating partners seen by Reuters. The Trump administration hopes countries will xmserving.come up with the best plans for trade negotiations by Wednesday, and U.S. officials are trying to speed up negotiations with multiple trading partners before the end of their own five-week suspension period.

Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, said: "The market believes that the latest round of closures will be held.Tax threats and fierce rhetoric against the EU and steel are intended to push negotiations to the end. ”

Sharing shares rose, with Cleveland-Cliffs soaring 23%. Other steel xmserving.companies also rose, including Nucor and SteelDynamics. However, automakers fell, Ford fell nearly 3.9%, and GM fell similarly.

Some tariffs were temporarily alleviated, eased the threat of high tariffs on the EU, and strong corporate earnings and improved economic situation helped the indicator S&P 500 hit its best monthly performance in 18 months in May. The index rose the largest in May since November 2023.

Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.08% to 4230 5.48 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 5935.94 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.67 to 19242.61 points. OPEC+ rose 0.67 to 19242.61 points. OPEC+ rose 0.67 to US listed energy stocks after maintaining the same level in July as the previous two months.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey showed that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, and under the influence of tariffs, suppliers needed longer to deliver inputs, which could indicate an imminent shortage of some xmserving.commodities.

Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan said that the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to amid stable labor market, inflation slightly above target and uncertain outlook. Series of data to determine what responses may be needed and when to act.

Trades now believe the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice by the end of this year, at 25 basis points each. Investors are also paying attention to Friday’s non-farm jobs report to measure the strength of the U.S. labor market under tariff volatility.

Gold market

Gold prices rose more than 2% on Monday, reaching a three-week high, with weaker dollar xmserving.combined with geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty driving investors’ demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold was $3,372.13 per ounce, up 2.5%, and hit May intraday The highest level since the 8th. U.S. gold futures closed up 2.5% higher with a settlement price of $3,397.20. The dollar index fell 0.5%, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Stock markets fell and trade tensions heated up, investors prepared for several economic and political events this week, including a key U.S. jobs report and a widely expected ECB rate cut.

Peter Grant, vice president and senior metal strategist at ZanierMetals, said: "The latest tariff threats on Friday, including plans to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, and Ukraine's deep strike on Russia over the weekend, exacerbated geopolitical risks and fueled risk aversion. ”

Investors are paying close attention to Fed Chairman Powell and himHis policymakers made this week's speech, looking for clues about the path to U.S. interest rates.

Spot silver rose 4.7%, hitting its highest since October 23, at $34.54 per ounce, and earlier hit a new high of more than seven months. Platinum rose 0.6% to $1,062.10; palladium rose 1.8% to $988.19. Oil markets

Oil prices climbed nearly 4% on Monday, as the wildfires burning in Canada's oil-producing provinces threatened supply, and President Trump's new tariff threats put pressure on the dollar.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 2.95% at $64.63 a barrel. U.S. crude oil rose 2.85% to $62.52. As of Monday, wildfires in Canada's oil-producing province Alberta had affected about 7% of the country's total crude oil production, Reuters calculated. At least two hot oil sands operators south of Fort McMurray Industrial Center evacuated workers and stopped production over the weekend just in case.

In addition, the dollar fell across the board on Monday, which also supported prices due to concerns that Trump's new tariff threats could damage economic growth and stimulate inflation.

RystadEnergy's Jorge Leon said that the premium of geopolitical risk increased after Ukrainian drone attacks Russia over the weekend also provided support for oil prices.

A memo reported by Russian media showed that Russia told Ukraine in peace talks on Monday that Russia would only agree to end the war if Kiev abandons large swathes of territory and accepts restrictions on the size of its military. These formally proposed conditions in the Istanbul negotiations highlight Moscow's refusal to xmserving.compromise on its long-term war goals despite U.S. President Donald Trump's call for an end to the Ukrainian conflict. Ukraine has repeatedly rejected Russian conditions.

At the same time, the signals sent by Iran and the United States are mixed, disturbing market participants. An Iranian diplomat said Monday that Iran was ready to reject a U.S. proposal to end a decades-long nuclear dispute, saying the proposal was “unfeasible” because it neither satisfies Iran’s interests nor softens Washington’s position on uranium enrichment.

OPEC+ member states agreed on Saturday to increase oil volume by 411,000 barrels per day in July, which will be the third straight month to increase production with the same increase, and the organization hopes to regain market share and punish overproducers. OPEC+ might have discussed a larger increase in production.

Foreign market

The dollar fell across the board on Monday, giving up last week's gains as the market weighed President Trump's tariff policy outlook and its potential impact on economic growth and inflation.

Trump said last Friday that he plans to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50% starting on Wednesday, noted Michael Brown, a market analyst at London-based online broker Pepperstone.The selling pressure faced by the US dollar is widespread. Whenever we see tariff concerns xmserving.come back, everyone starts to pour into the ‘sell the U.S.’ deal again. "

The dollar fell 0.8% against the yen to 142.85 yen, almost smoothing out the gains against the yen last week.

The euro rose 0.8% against the dollar to $1.14355, a new high since the end of April. Later this week, the ECB's interest rate decision and subsequent outlook will be the focus. The dollar expanded its decline after data showed that U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third straight month in May and suppliers needed longer to deliver inputs under the influence of tariffs, which may indicate a shortage of certain xmserving.commodities.

Early data showed that European manufacturing took another step towards stability in May, but manufacturing activity in Asia fell .

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the dollar against six other major currencies, fell 0.6% to 98.75 points, just a short distance from a three-year low of 97.923 hit at the end of April.

For weeks, Trump's intermittent trade war has hit the dollar's exchange rate hard, and investors have been questioning the dollar's safe-haven position as rising tensions fuel concerns about a potential U.S. recession.

Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note Sunday that we expect the dollar to continue to weaken over the next 12 months as U.S. interest rates and economic growth gradually converge to other countries.

Last week, trade negotiations with the EU were heavy The dollar gained some respite after getting back on track and the U.S. Trade Court blocked most of its tariffs on Trump’s ruling over Trump’s power, up 0.3%. A day later, the appeals court resumed tariffs, and the Trump administration said it had other ways to impose those tariffs if it lost in court, but many analysts said it showed that the president’s power was still constrained.

Fiscal concerns have also triggered a widespread "selling the U.S." theme, with dollar assets falling in recent months from stocks to government bonds.

This week, as the Senate began to review the government’s tax cuts and spending bill, which is estimated to be 362,000 for the federal government over the next decade $100 million in debt increases by another $3.8 trillion. Barclays analysts believe that the fate of Article 899 of the bill may be crucial. They said in a research report that S899 will give the United States xmserving.complete freedom to tax businesses and investors in countries deemed to have ‘unfair foreign taxes’, which may be seen as tax on U.S. capital accounts, and current investors’ concerns about U.S. assets are growing. ”

International News

Trump: Iran will not be allowed to enrich any uranium

U.S. President Trump said on social media platforms: Under the (Iran nuclear) agreement we may reach, we will not allow any uranium enrichment! Previously, media reported that the US's policy on nuclear negotiations with Iraq has changed 180 degrees.

The US government plans to cancel protection measures to allow drilling and mining in the Alaska wilderness area

On June 2 local time, the US government stated that it plans to cancel federal protection measures implemented in the Alaska wilderness area in the Biden era and allow drilling and mining in the area. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Bergham said the Biden administration banned oil and gas drilling in more than half of Alaska's national oil reserves last year, which exceeded its authority. It is reported that the proposed abolition measures by the U.S. government require increased oil and gas extraction on public land and abolish almost all climate and environmental protection measures.

Iranian officials say the U.S. nuclear deal proposal is "incoherent and disconnected" and the U.S.-Iran negotiations may be on the verge of collapse

A senior Iranian official told xmserving.comN that the new nuclear deal proposal submitted to Tehran in recent days was "incoherent and disconnected". Sources familiar with the progress of the negotiations said the momentum behind the negotiations appeared to be collapsed. According to reports, the United States' position on uranium enrichment has changed in the new proposal. The report recommends that the United States can invest in Iran's civilian nuclear energy projects and join a coalition to monitor low-enriched uranium activities in Iran for some time. The alliance is expected to include Middle Eastern countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear oversight agency. Iranian officials have repeatedly said they are open to the idea of ​​forming a uranium enrichment alliance, but insisted that Iran must be able to control its uranium enrichment capacity. The senior Iranian official condemned the new proposal on Monday, saying "at first glance, it is considered incoherent, disconnected, very unrealistic, and over-required." The official added: "Americans keep changing their positions, which is the main obstacle to the success of negotiations so far, and now makes negotiations more difficult than ever." The person familiar with the matter said the next round of negotiations is very uncertain and may not be held at all.

The tariff-free policy is about to expire. The EU will seek to reach a new free trade agreement with Ukraine.

European xmserving.commission spokesman Olov Gill said on the 2nd that the EU's current tariff-free policy against Ukraine will expire on June 5. The EU is starting to formulate transitional arrangements and will work with Ukraine to reach a new free trade agreement to upgrade to a deeply xmserving.comprehensive free trade agreement. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, the EU temporarily abolished import tariffs and quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products. Farmers in some EU countries such as Poland and France have always said that the policy has led to a large influx of Ukrainian agricultural products, which has harmed their interests.

The Turkish President said that Russia and Ukraine achieved "major results" in the second round of negotiations, proposed to hold a summit between Russia and Ukraine and the United States.

Turkish President Erdogan said in Ankara on the 2nd that he proposed to hold a summit with the participation of leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. Erdogan delivered a speech after the cabinet meeting that day, saying that his "big wish" was to have Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky meet in Istanbul or Ankara, Turkey. "I even want to make (US)President Trump came together. Speaking of the second round of direct negotiations held by the Russian and Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul that day, Erdogan said that the negotiations achieved "significant results". The number of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine will exchange more than 1,000. In addition, Russia and Ukraine will also exchange bodies of dead soldiers, and the number of dead soldiers to exchange is very large. Erdogan said that from the first day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, Turkey has a clear position. Turkey does not want to see conflict, xmserving.combat, war and oppression in the region. Turkey "responsible efforts to establish a sustainable peace that both sides can accept."

aimed at 8.7 billion barrels of exploitable oil resources, and Trump plans to lift restrictions on Arctic oil drilling in the Biden era

Trump's administration The government is planning to repeal the Biden-era restriction on oil drilling in most large oil reserves in the U.S. in Alaska. The Alaska oil reserves are estimated to contain 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Last Sunday, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced policy adjustments in the plan at a town hall in Utchagvik, a village on the Chukchi Sea. He and current President Trump’s cabinet members are visiting Alaska to promote energy development in the region. The measure will open new opportunities for oil and gas development in the Alaska National Oil Reserve (23 million acres). The action is in response to a directive issued after Trump’s inauguration in January, which signed an executive order to enforce a series of Policy changes aim to expand Alaska's oil, gas and mineral development. According to a 2017 assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey, the reserve area is estimated to have 8.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Foreign media: Trump demands that countries make "best offers" by Wednesday

According to a letter seen by Reuters, the Trump administration hopes that countries participating in high-level tariff negotiations will make "best offers" on trade negotiations before Wednesday. The move xmserving.comes as the White House seeks to accelerate trade negotiations by July deadline. Documents show that there is a sense of urgency within the U.S. government to xmserving.complete a deal within the pressing period. Although officials such as White House economic adviser Hassett have repeatedly promised that multiple agreements are close to being reached, the United States has so far only one major trading partner (UK) A deal was reached. Even so, the limited agreement is more like a framework for ongoing negotiations than a final agreement. The letter said that the United States hopes countries will list the best options in a number of key areas, including tariff and quota preferences for the purchase of industrial and agricultural products and non-tariff barriers. The letter also stated that the United States will assess the responses of the parties within a few days and propose "possible solutions", which may include reciprocal tariff rates. It is not clear which countries the letter will be sent to, but the target is those countries that are actively negotiating. It is reported that the United States is currently in active negotiations with countries and regions such as the EU, Japan, Vietnam and India.

Powell: The government must understand the impact of potentially drastic fluctuations in the U.S.Chairman Paul Powell delivered an opening speech at an event, saying that the Fed still needs to have an in-depth understanding of the policies and practices of other governments and central banks, and its impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets. Exchange rate policy is now mainly under the responsibility of the U.S. Treasury Department. However, the end of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s fundamentally changed the way monetary policy was implemented, as policymakers had to understand the impact of potentially more drastic fluctuations in the U.S. households and businesses. It is reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not xmserving.comment on monetary policy and economic outlook.

Domestic News

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