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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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market news
Fed meeting minutes show interest rate cuts two to three times this year
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the ten thousand white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that interest rate cuts two to three times this year." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM foreign exchange market: Fed meeting minutes show that interest rate cuts two to three times this year
XM foreign exchange market: The latest Fed meeting minutes mention that interest rate cuts may be two to three times this year. This judgment is based on the Survey of Market Expectations estimates the median mode path of the federal funds rate. Normally, futures markets have more aggressive expectations of interest rate paths, while options markets have more moderate expectations of interest rate paths. The minutes of the meeting mentioned that based on the judgment of the option model, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates one to two times this year, at 25 basis points each time.
Regarding the inflation outlook in the United States, participants said that the inflation level was high to a certain extent. However, judging from the annual rate data of PCE, the total inflation rate and core inflation rate are both lower than the same period last year. Participants believed that Trump's radical policies far exceeded expectations and would have an unpredictable impact on inflation rates. Overall, Fed officials believe that Trump's policies will have the dual adverse effects of downward trend in employment and economic activity and upward trend in inflation risks.
The participants were pessimistic about the US labor market. The minutes mentioned: There is a risk of weakening of the labor market in the next few months, and there is considerable uncertainty in the outlook of the labor market. Even some Federal Reserve officials believe that the unemployment rate in the United States will exceed 5% by the end of this year and remain stable above 5% in 2027. Considering that the latest unemployment rate in the United States is only 4.2%, if the unemployment rate reaches 5% at the end of the year, it means that the US non-farm employment report will perform very poorly in the xmserving.coming months.
▲XM chart
After the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the U.S. bond market experienced a strange phenomenon: the yields of the two-month, three-month and six-month Treasury bonds were 4.35%, xmserving.completely uneven. Before that, the two-month Treasury bonds had a higher yield than the three-month Treasury bonds, and there was an inverted phenomenon. The three-month and six-month Treasury bonds also had an inverted phenomenon. Now the yields of the three-month and six-month Treasury bonds are flat, and the inverted phenomenon disappeared, which means that the overall impact of the meeting minutes tends to be positive, boosting market confidence, especially the confidence that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the short term.
▲XM chart
On the trend structure perspective, at the daily level, the US dollar index shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding. The bear trend has been going on for more than three months, and the decline from May 13 to 26 did not hit a new low, which means that the short power has declined and the bulls may exert force. The news about Trump's radical policy in April is ineffective, which has strong support for the US dollar index. Currently, the latest market price of the US dollar index is at the 0.618 quarter of the previous first decline band, and may encounter resistance, and a long upper shadow appears in the session. If the shadow can be shortened at the close, the probability of rebound continuing is higher. If the closing is xmserving.completed with a long upper shadow, it means that the bulls are still insufficient.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of the analyst and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the only reference basis. In different periods, analysts' views may change, and the update will not be notified separately.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that interest rate cuts by two to three times this year" was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thank you for your support!
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