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Dollar Index Struggles, Follow Fed Officials' Speech

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The US dollar index is struggling, pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, and on Thursday the US dollar index rebounded strongly by 0.3%, and once rebounded above the 100 mark, closing at around 99.94. The economic data on this trading day are relatively small. We will pay attention to the total annualized number of new home sales in the United States after the seasonal adjustment in April. We will continue to pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials and pay attention to the relevant news about the geopolitical situation and international trade situation.

Analysis of major currency trends

Dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 99.82, and the U.S. dollar index traded cautiously around 100.00 on Thursday, after rebounding from a two-week low and rebounding from a key support level at the 99.50 psychological mark earlier in the day. Although the dollar shows signs of resilience, overall risk sentiment remains fragile due to intensified U.S. fiscal uncertainty, and gains are limited. From a technical point of view, the U.S. dollar index is still in a correction phase in a broader downward trend, which began in March. DXY consolidates below the 21-day exponential moving average of 100.40. If the area continues to break through, the door will be opened for the 101.30–101.50 level, which is the front support and turn into resistance. The momentum indicator presents a mixed signal, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 45.79, showing hesitation and lack of bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence/Diver (MACD) attempting to make a bullish cross. However, it is still below the zero line—a sign that bullish confidence is still insufficient. On the downside, 99.50 remains a key support level. If it falls below this level, it may attract further selling and may drag the index to the 98.80–99.00 area.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD hovered around 1.1293, and on Thursday, EUR/USD fell below 1.1300 as U.S. (US) economic data performed better than expected, while Eurozone’s fast Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May was not satisfactory. This week, the EU’s economic agenda will include Germany’s GDP data and the ECB spokesperson. The U.S. agenda will include housing data and Fed spokesperson. From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD continued rebound will be paused. A “bearish engulf” chart pattern is forming, which may pave the way for a further downside as the pair hits a two-day low of 1.1255. Although momentum remains bullish, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), RSI is approaching the 50 neutral line, indicating that buyers’ momentum is weakening.

EU Pound: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3431, which remained flat on Thursday, hovering slightly north at the 1.3400 mark as global market sentiment was affected by a chain of volatility in Treasury yields this week. Investors are generally concerned about the growing debt problem in the United States, and are expected to obtain new (wrongly-directed) when President Donald Trump's deficit-inflated "beautiful" tax and budget bill passes Congress Injection. Technically, in the short term, the bullish momentum on the GBP/USD chart has faded; intraday price movements are trapped in a xmserving.compact consolidation model, and although the pair appears to be ready for a bullish breakout, there may not be enough buying power to push the GBP price back above 1.3440, followed by the intraday price drop to the 200-hour index moving average (EMA) close to 1.3355.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. Japan's core inflation hit a high of more than two years under pressure on the Bank of Japan

Data released on Friday showed that Japan's core consumer inflation reached 3.5% in April, the fastest annual growth rate in more than two years, and the central bank continued to bear pressure on further interest rate hikes. The data highlights the Bank of Japan's dilemma in balancing the price pressure brought by continued food inflation and the growth resistance brought by US President Trump's tariffs. Core CPI (including petroleum products, but not fresh food prices ) set its fastest annual growth rate since January 2023 (4.2%), which has been above the central bank's 2% target for more than three years. Another index that does not consider fuel and fresh food rose 3.0% year-on-year in April, which has been closely watched by the Bank of Japan as it can better measure demand-driven price pressures.

2. Survey: Pessimism in UK consumers improved slightly in May

A survey released on Friday showed that British consumers' confidence in May increased, possibly reflecting a decline in interest rates and easing global trade tensionsThe impact of Driven by household optimism about financial conditions and overall economic outlook, the UK GfK consumer confidence index rose from -23 in April to -20 in May. Neil Bellamy, director of consumer insights at GfK, said the Bank of England's interest rate cut on May 8 and part of the easing of the trade war between U.S. by U.S. President Donald Trump may have given consumers a sigh of relief. "These dangers — especially inflation issues — have not disappeared, but sentiment in UK consumers seems to have improved," Bellamy said. Still, the index is well below the long-term average of the survey -11.

3. Federal Reserve Officials: Encourage institutions to actively use SRF tools to deal with market liquidity challenges

Roberto Paley, an official in charge of monetary policy in the New York Fed, said Thursday that although the market liquidity is still abundant, the Federal Reserve is encouraging financial institutions to use the standing repurchase facilitation tool (SRF) more actively in the right situation. "I encourage counterparties to use SRF when economically reasonable. This tool exists to support the effective implementation of monetary policy and to promote the smooth operation of the market. If the SRF can work as intended, it will be in the best interest of all." In his speech, Paley reiterated that the New York Fed will adjust its operating arrangements in the near future, extending the current SRF operation only in the afternoon to the morning session, and xmserving.completing the settlement on the same day. This is an important step to improve the effectiveness of the tool and marginally helps the Fed maintain a relatively smaller balance sheet size. Paley noted that there may be some way to go on the continued balance sheet shrinkage, although there are signs that money market liquidity is tightening. As the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and lowers its reserve levels, upward pressure on money market interest rates may increase.

4. The G7 xmserving.communiqué draft promises to resolve the problem of "over-imbalance" in the global economy. The agency quoted a draft xmserving.communiqué on Thursday as saying that the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors promised to resolve the problem of "over-imbalance" in the global economy. G7 finance and finance leaders said there is a need for a unified understanding of how “non-market policies and practices” undermine international economic security. According to reports, the draft xmserving.communiqué called for an analysis of "market concentration and international supply chain resilience." G7 Finance Ministers and central bank governors said they agreed with the “importance of a level playing field and the widespread coordinated approach to the harm caused by countries that do not xmserving.comply with the same rules and lack transparency”. The report also said that if a ceasefire agreement cannot be reached with Ukraine, the G7 will consider increasing sanctions on Russia.

5. U.S. business confidence improves in May, pessimism eased

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that U.S. business confidence improved in May from a worrying downturn in April, and pessimism about the outlook for the xmserving.coming year was alleviated, mainly due to the suspension of tariff hikes. As demand rebounds, the currentOutput growth also rebounded from recent lows in April. However, market sentiment and output growth remain relatively sluggish, with at least some of the rebound in May likely be related to businesses and their customers seeking to respond to further possible tariff-related issues. In particular, concerns over tariff-related supply shortages and price increases have led to the accumulation of input inventory at its highest ever since the first survey data was first found 18 years ago.

Institutional View

1. Deutsche Bank: As the impact of weaker interest rate cut expectations gradually fades, the pound is falling from a high level

UK inflation data is higher than expected, prompting the market to lower expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cut. On Wednesday, the pound hit a three-year high against the dollar, and then turned to a decline against the dollar. Ulrich Leuchtmann, an analyst at xmserving.commerzbank, said in a note that the pullback of the pound showed that the impact of corrected interest rate expectations was "gradually fading". He said the appreciation of the pound against the dollar mainly reflects the weakening of the dollar. Inflation data has not pushed the pound to strengthen against the euro or G10 currency average, meaning the pound needs a new catalyst to drive appreciation.

2. Institutions: The euro against the dollar may maintain an upward tendency with an improvement in the upward trend

Quek SerLeang, market strategist at Global Economic and Market Research Department of UOB Singapore, said that from the daily chart, the euro against the dollar may maintain an upward tendency with an improvement in the upward trend. As long as the EUR/USD stays above the 55-day index moving average, the current upward tendency of the EUR/USD may remain unchanged. Meanwhile, it seems too early to expect the pair to retest this year's high of 1.1573.

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market news

Dollar Index Struggles, Follow Fed Officials' Speech

Analysis of major currency trends

1. Japan's core inflation hit a high of more than two years under pressure on the Bank of Japan

2. Survey: Pessimism in UK consumers improved slightly in May

3. Federal Reserve Officials: Encourage institutions to actively use SRF tools to deal with market liquidity challenges

5. U.S. business confidence improves in May, pessimism eased

Institutional View

1. Deutsche Bank: As the impact of weaker interest rate cut expectations gradually fades, the pound is falling from a high level

2. Institutions: The euro against the dollar may maintain an upward tendency with an improvement in the upward trend

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

market news

Dollar Index Struggles, Follow Fed Officials' Speech

Analysis of major currency trends

1. Japan's core inflation hit a high of more than two years under pressure on the Bank of Japan

2. Survey: Pessimism in UK consumers improved slightly in May

3. Federal Reserve Officials: Encourage institutions to actively use SRF tools to deal with market liquidity challenges

5. U.S. business confidence improves in May, pessimism eased

Institutional View

1. Deutsche Bank: As the impact of weaker interest rate cut expectations gradually fades, the pound is falling from a high level

2. Institutions: The euro against the dollar may maintain an upward tendency with an improvement in the upward trend

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

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for a Reason