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Non-agricultural data is coming, can gold and non-US continue to suppress it?

Wonderful Introduction:

The moon has phases, people have joys and sorrows, whether life has changes, the year has four seasons, after the long night, you can see dawn, suffer pain, you can have happiness, endure the cold winter, you don’t need to lie down, and after all the cold plums, you can look forward to the New Year.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Non-agricultural data is xmserving.coming, can gold and non-US continue to suppress it?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

Recently, the US financial market has been xmserving.complex and changeable due to economic data and policy dynamics. U.S. Treasury yields fell first and then rose on Thursday, falling to a three-week low due to the increase in the number of initial unemployment claims last week, and then rebounded as April's manufacturing report better than expected. Although the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, it still contracted but was better than expected. The input price index rose to a high level, indicating that tariffs caused supply chain tightness and rising costs. This allowed traders to weigh the economic slowdown with inflation risks, and price pressure may delay the Fed's rate cut, with expectations of a rate cut in June falling to 58%. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to rebound on Thursday, thanks to technical buying after oversold last month and optimistic expectations for tariff agreements. The international trade situation has slowed down, the United States has taken the initiative to contact China and is expected to reach a trade agreement with many countries. In addition, the U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter, and the personal consumption expenditure price index remained unchanged in March. The market focuses on Friday's non-farm employment report, with Wall Street economists predicting a decrease in new jobs in March and a steady unemployment rate. The results of the report will affect market expectations and Fed decisions.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed an upward trend on Thursday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 100.352 on the day, and fell to 99.585 at the lowest, and finally closed at 100.157. Looking back at the market performance on Thursday, the price directly received support in the early trading period and further rose. Since the price is above the daily and four-hour support, the price is soaring closer as the author said. At present, the subsequent prices are expected to continue to rise. Non-agricultural data will be welcomed tonight. Please pay attention to market risks.

From the multi-period analysis, weekly levelThe price is suppressed in the 103.90 area resistance, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the price has reached the 99.40 area resistance level. From the band, the price has broken through and stabilized the daily resistance. The previous resistance becomes support, and the subsequent bands are bullish. In the short term, the 99.70 regional support is on the 4-hour front, and the price will remain relatively bullish in the short term. We will pay attention to further rising prices. Overall, as long as the price does not break through the four-hour and daily support, it will continue to look forward to rising. The above is temporarily focused on the 100.40-100.80 area.

The US dollar index has a long range of 99.70-80, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 100.40-100.80

Gold

In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a decline on Thursday. The price rose to the highest level of 3290.01 on the day, and fell to the lowest level of 3201.83 on the spot, and closed at 3237.69 on the spot. Regarding the price of gold fell directly under pressure in the early trading on Thursday, and then the price remained weak. When the price test reached around 3200, the daily price fluctuated in a short term and the daily price ended in a big negative way. From the overall perspective, we need to pay attention to the gains and losses of the 3260-3265 range. If it does not break, it is expected to continue to be under pressure. If it breaks up, we will pay attention to the daily resistance suppression. Non-agricultural data will be welcomed tonight, and everyone should pay attention to market risks in operations.

From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four-month period, so according to the rhythm, there have been four consecutive positives. For the current May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3040 area. So from a mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view, and the price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise. From the daily level, the current price resistance is in the 3006 area. This position is a key watershed in the band trend. Below this position, the subsequent band will be treated shortly. At the same time, for the short-term four-hour price resistance is around 3260-3265, the gains and losses of this position determine the key to the short-term trend. If the price does not break, rely on this position to see the pressure first. Since non-agricultural data are released, if there is unexpected breakthrough, you need to pay attention to the daily resistance and see the pressure.

Gold is empty in the range of 3260-3265, with a defense of 10 US dollars, and a target of 3200-3160-3120

Considering non-agricultural data, if unexpectedly breaks, you need to pay attention to the daily line near 3306 and under pressure

Europe and the United States

Europe and the United States, the prices in Europe and the United States were generally down on Thursday. The price fell to 1.1265 at the lowest point on the day, and rose to 1 at the highest point..1340 position, closing at 1.1287 position. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Thursday, the morning opening price fell first in the short term, and then rebounded upward during the European session and hit a low point in the morning. Since the overall price was already down, the price of the US continued to fall under pressure after the session. Finally, the daily price ended with a big negative end, and the overall continued to continue.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0800, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the support of the 1.0840 area, and from the perspective of the mid-line, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price breaks the daily support after fluctuating at a recent high level, and is treated with short-term short-term at 1.1360. From the short-term four-hour level, the current four-hour level resistance is in the 1.1320-30 area, so the overall focus is on the four-hour and daily resistance areas in the future and the pressure is under, and the 1.1270-1.1200 area is below.

Europe and the United States have a short range of 1.1320-30, defense is 40 points, target 1.1270-1.1200

Consider non-agricultural data, if unexpectedly breaks, you need to pay attention to the daily line around 1.1370 to see pressure

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Friday, May 2, 2025

①07:30 Japan's March unemployment rate

②15:50 France's April manufacturing PMI final value

③15:55 Germany's April manufacturing PMI final value

④16:00 Eurozone's April manufacturing PMI final value

⑤17:00 Eurozone's April CPI annual rate initial value

⑥17:00 Eurozone April CPI monthly rate initial value

⑦17:00 Eurozone March unemployment rate

⑧20:30 US April unemployment rate

⑨20:30 US April seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population

⑩20:30 US April average hourly wage annual rate

20:30 US April average hourly wage monthly rate

22:00 US March factory order monthly rate

01:00 US next day to May 2

Total number of oil drilling rigs in the week

Note: The above is only personal opinion and strategy, for reference and xmserving.communication only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and is not used as a basis for ordering.

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