Focusing on non-farm data, gold prices fall to two-week lows, U.S. sanctions on Iran to limit oil prices declines

Basic news

On Friday (May 2 Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,237.56/ounce, gold prices fell more than 1.5% on Thursday, falling to a two-week low, touching the middle track of the Bollinger Band. Due to the signals of easing trade tensions and the holidays of many countries, the market also paid attention to the US non-farm employment report on Friday to judge the economic outlook; US crude oil trading was around $58.88/barrel, and oil prices closed up more than 1% on Thursday, after US President Trump threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Iran after the fourth round of talks between the US and Iran.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rising for the eighth consecutive trading day after strong performance from two giants, Microsoft and Meta, eased market concerns about artificial intelligence spending. Driven by optimistic quarterly growth expectations for cloud xmserving.computing business Azure, Microsoft rose 7.6%, closing at its highest since the end of January. Earlier in the trading session, this rise once made Microsoft surpass Apple and become the world's highest-capital xmserving.company.

MetaPlatforms rose 4.2% after reporting higher-than-expected revenues backed by strong advertising performance, closing at its highest since April 9.

These results have helped alleviate concerns that large-scale spending on artificial intelligence in recent years will not pay off, and also that President Trump’s tariffs could impact economic growth.

Villere&Co portfolio manager Lamar Villere said: "I'm glad this day was driven by financial reports, rather than just talking about tariffs, so here's itThe aspect is a bit refreshing, we are talking about economic data and financial reports. Of course, when you see xmserving.companies of the size of Microsoft and Meta that have made good profits, you will believe that their momentum has not yet been exhausted.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.21% to 40,752.96 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.63% to 5,604.14 points; and the Nasdaq rose 1.52% to 17,710.74 points.

The financial report quarter has been relatively stable so far, and despite being shrouded by the effects of frequent changes in U.S. trade policy, many xmserving.companies have lowered or withdrawn their financial forecasts. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 12.9% year-on-year, xmserving.compared with an estimate of 8% on April 1.

After the closing, Amazon fell nearly 4% due to financial reports showing that the cloud sector's growth was lagging, and Apple, one of the "Seven Technologies", will also release its financial report after the closing.

Apple closed up 0.4%, earlier tug-of-war in the flat market after a federal judge ruled that the xmserving.company violated a U.S. court order to reform its AppStore.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its longest gain in a year, with the S&P's longest gain since August. The technology sector and the xmserving.communications service sector led the gains, up 2.2% and 1.6% respectively.

Economic data are mixed. The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. last week was higher than expected, which could suggest a rise in layoffs after the tariffs were announced. The U.S. government's employment report will be released on Friday.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) showed that U.S. manufacturing further shrank in April, but was stronger than expectations from economists surveyed by Reuters. The investment price remains high. Gold fell to a two-week low on Thursday, affected by signals of easing trade tensions and multinational holidays, while the market also focused on Friday's U.S. non-farm jobs report to judge the economic outlook.

Spot gold was $3,211.53 per ounce, down 2.3%, reaching its lowest point since April 14 at the beginning of the session. U.S. gold futures closed down 2.9% at $3,222.20.

Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said there were signs that a trade deal was about to be reached and risk-taking transactions were underway, leading to some profit-taking in the safe-haven gold market. "

U.S. President Trump said a trade deal could be reached with India, Japan and South Korea. Data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter, with U.S. personal consumption spending price index flat in March. Now, all eyes are focused on the U.S. non-farm jobs report released on Friday.

Federal policymakers said interest rates will remain unchanged until there are clear signs that inflation will drop to its 2% target or potential job market deterioration.

Spot silver fell 1.4% to $32.13; platinum fell 0.6%, at $961.05; palladium rose 0.4% to $941.33. Oil market

Oil prices closed up nearly 2% on Thursday after U.S. President Trump threatened to impose second-level sanctions on Iran after the fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks were postponed. Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.13 per barrel, up 1.8%; U.S. crude oil futures closed at $59.24 per barrel, up 1.8%.

Trump said all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must be stopped and any country or individual who purchases oil or petrochemical products from Iran will be immediately subject to secondary sanctions.

Talks on Iran's nuclear program, scheduled for Saturday in Rome were postponed before his remarks. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the new date of talks will depend on the attitude of the United States. "If the Trump administration successfully imposes secondary sanctions on purchasing Iranian oil, it could result in a reduction of about 1.5 million barrels per day. The current lower oil prices provide the Trump administration with stricter enforcement of these sanctions, especially as OPEC+ production far exceeds quotas and seeks further increase production."

Three people familiar with OPEC+ negotiations said several OPEC+ member states would recommend the organization to accelerate production growth for the second consecutive month in June. OPEC+ Eight countries will meet on May 5 to decide on production plans for June.

Meanwhile, sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia is telling allies and industry experts it is unwilling to support the oil market by cutting supplies and can cope with long-term low prices.

However, on demand, Wednesday’s data showed the U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years in the first quarter, with a flood of imported goods pouring into the U.S. as businesses xmserving.compete to avoid higher costs from tariffs, highlighting the destructive impact of Trump’s unpredictable trade policy.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar continued to rebound on Thursday, driven by some technical buying after last month's oversold, investors were more optimistic about a tariff agreement between the United States and its trading partners. As many markets closed due to holidays, trading on Thursday decreased xmserving.compared to usual.

The yen fell sharply after the Bank of Japan lowered its economic growth expectations due to the impact of US tariffs and kept interest rates unchanged. The yen hit a four-week low against the dollar. The dollar rose 1.7% against the yen to 145.52 yen, the biggest single-day gain since November 2024.

The yen fell to four-month low against the euro. The euro rose 1.4% against the yen New York at 164.29 yen, the biggest single-day gain in two months.

Bank of Japan's policymakers unanimously support keeping interest rates unchanged, and the decision is also in line with expectations, but the downward outlook reduces the possibility of future interest rate hikes. The Bank of Japan now expects basic inflation to be in fiscal 2026The target level of 2% in the second half of the year and beyond was delayed by one year from January's forecast. The dollar rose widely, and investors assessed the prospects of a deal between the United States and trading partners.

Treasury Secretary Becente and U.S. National Economic xmserving.commission Director Hassett said Thursday that he hopes to make progress in easing trade tensions. U.S. President Trump said on Wednesday that a "potential" trade deal with India, South Korea and Japan is about to be reached.

Jayati Bharadwaj, global foreign exchange strategist at TD Securities, said: The Trump administration has realized that they may have gone too far on the tariff issue and they are trying to give the possibility of negotiations.

In afternoon trading, the euro fell to its three-week low against the dollar, with New York falling 0.4% at $1.1286 and the pound fell 0.4% against the dollar at $1.3284.

The US dollar climbed 0.6% to 0.8311 Swiss francs.

Party participants are currently following Friday’s U.S. nonfarm jobs report to learn about clues about when the Fed will resume rate cuts. Wall Street economists predict 130,000 new jobs will be created in March, xmserving.compared with 228,000 in February. U.S. data on Thursday showed the economy continued to weaken.

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States rose to a two-month highest last week. In the week ending April 26, the number of initial unemployment benefits soared by 18,000 to 241,000, the highest level since February.

Another report showed that U.S. manufacturing further shrank in April, import tariffs on imported goods tightened supply chains and pushed up input prices, supporting the stagflation.

The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the US dollar at New York to $0.6385, after a sharp rise in April and once hit a few months high.

International News

The U.S. Department of Labor suspends the Biden-era gig regulations

The U.S. Department of Labor will no longer implement a Biden-era rule that makes it harder for xmserving.companies to hire independent contractors, and the department is working to eliminate it. The announcement, released on May 1 in a law enforcement guide, marks the implementation of plans to revoke the provision, which the Trump administration has previously hinted to revoke in response to pending lawsuits against the policy. "Instructing agency investigators not to apply the analysis of the 2024 provision to current law enforcement affairs. This approach provides clearer ideas for businesses and workers in dealing with modern work arrangements while addressing legal and regulatory issues," the Ministry of Labor's press release said. The decision is a major victory for business groups opposing the provision. They urged the government to speed up the repeal of the provision, believing that the agency puts businesses in a dilemma if the provision remains in effect.

The United States confirms that Canadian and Mexican auto parts are exempt from tariffs

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency confirmed on May 1 local time that auto parts made in Canada and Mexico belong to the "USCAC Association"Part of the USMCA will be exempted from a 25% tariff, which will take effect on May 3.

Media: The EU plans to purchase 50 billion euros of US goods in a bid to solve trade issues

According to reports, the EU's chief negotiator said that Brussels hopes to increase the purchase of US goods by 50 billion euros to solve the "problems" in the trade relations, adding that the EU is making "certain progress" in reaching an agreement. However, EU Trade xmserving.commissioner Sevjovich said the EU will not accept the continued 10% tariff on its goods as a fair solution to trade negotiations. Shefjovic said that since the Trump administration imposed tariffs, the United States and the EU have made progress through multiple rounds of face-to-face and telephone negotiations. He added that "his goal" remains a "balanced and fair" deal with the White House. He said the issue could be resolved quickly as the two sides reached an agreement to buy more U.S. natural gas and agricultural products. But he warned that it would be "very difficult" to reach an agreement that is "clearly good and acceptable for our member states and the European Parliament".

Trump: All purchases of Iranian oil products must be stopped, otherwise sanctions will be imposed

U.S. President Trump warned on social media that all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must be stopped immediately! Any country or individual that purchases petroleum or petrochemical products from Iran will be subject to secondary sanctions immediately. They will not be allowed to do business with the United States in any way or form.

Former "Feder Three Head" Dudley: It is recommended that the Fed improve its work through six major ways

Former US New York Fed Chairman (who enjoyed the permanent voting rights of FOMC when he was in office and was known as the third head of the Fed), Bloomberg columnist Bill Dudley believes that if operated properly, the so-called monetary policy framework review will enable the Fed to better cope with various economic shocks and policy uncertainties, which is exactly what the current US government is good at. A new G30 report (Dudley as the lead author) advocates six key reforms: 1. Return to the symmetric 2% inflation target. 2. Strive to achieve an employment level consistent with the 2% inflation target. 3. When the two goals of inflation and employment conflict, which goal is more preferred? 4. Establish a framework for quantitative easing and austerity policies. 5. Announce staff benchmark and alternative forecasts at the end of each policy development meeting. 6. Formulate a forward-looking guidance framework.

Zelensky: The Ukrainian mineral agreement will be submitted to Urada for approval

On May 1 local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the Ukrainian government team released a report on economic partnership with the United States. He said that the Ukrainian-US mineral agreement has been signed and will be submitted to Ukrainian Supreme Lada for approval, hoping to ensure that there are no delays in the agreement. He stressed that there is no debt involved in the agreement and is creating a recovery fund. This is a cooperation with the United States under fair conditions, and both Ukraine and the United States can benefit from cooperation. heIt said that he talked about the preparations for the two sides to reach an agreement in the Vatican talks. In fact, this can be seen as the first outcome of the Vatican meeting, and he expressed his expectation of other achievements in the U.S.-U.S. talks.

Omani Foreign Ministry: U.S.-Iran negotiations have been postponed for some reason

On the afternoon of May 1 local time, the Omani Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the negotiations between Iran and the United States, originally scheduled to be held on May 3, will be rescheduled for some reason. The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed the news. On the same day, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed the news. Iraqi Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae said the reason for the delay in negotiations was based on the proposal of Omani Foreign Minister. Bagae reiterated that Iran is willing to safeguard its legitimate interests through diplomatic means and end sanctions and economic oppression against the Iranian people.

The US ISM manufacturing index hit the largest decline since November, weak orders xmserving.combined with slowing output

The US manufacturing industry shrank the largest in five months in April, and weak orders led to output falling the largest since 2020. Data released by the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Thursday showed that the manufacturing index fell 0.3 points to 48.7 in April, below the boom and bust watershed, indicating that the manufacturing industry is in a shrinking range as a whole. Production indicators fell sharply by more than 4 points to 44. The price indicators of inputs rose slightly. Data shows that tariff pressures and trade policy uncertainty are limiting manufacturing expansion. New orders have declined for the third consecutive month, with unfinished orders accelerating and decreasing, and overall demand is weak.

"Federal Mouthplate" Nick Timiraos: The number of unemployment claims in the United States may be due to the holiday of New York State schools

"Federal Mouthplate" Nick Timiraos said, "The number of initial and renewed unemployment claims has increased in the past week. Considering the seasonal pattern, this situation is not normal, although the week's data cannot form a trend." Panson macroeconomist Samuel Tombs responded, "The rise in the number of unemployment claims is mainly driven by New York State. This seems to be in line with New York. The spring holiday of public schools is related to the time of public schools, and every year there are school holidays. The seasonal impact has not promoted a sudden increase. "

Domestic News

Hainan Free Trade Port's "zero tariff" imported drugs and medical devices policy exceeded 60 million yuan

On May 1, it was learned from Haikou Customs that the Hainan Free Trade Port's "zero tariff" imported drugs and medical devices policy has been implemented in the Boao Lecheng International Medical Tourism Pilot Zone on December 25, 2024, 10 hospitals have passed the review of the policy enjoyment subjects. Haikou Customs has supervised a total declared value of "zero tariffs" imported drugs and medical devices of RMB 60.239 million, and tax exemptions of RMB 8.187 million.

The volume of inbound travel orders for "buy, buy, buy, and "May Day" in China increased by 173% year-on-year

With the help of various favorable policies, foreigners' "Chinese travel" and "Chinese shopping" to China are ushering in anotherWaves of craze. Driven by the departure tax refund service, the volume of inbound tourists in my country has continued to expand, and the number of inbound travel orders on May Day increased by 173% year-on-year. As one of the popular destinations for inbound travel, Shanghai further optimizes the outbound tax refund consumption environment during the May Day holiday, allowing overseas tourists to enjoy more convenient services. Since my country introduced a series of visa-free policies last year, the number of inbound foreign tourists in Shanghai has increased significantly, receiving 1.743 million inbound tourists in the first quarter, an increase of 37.1% year-on-year. In Tianzifang, a landmark that many foreign tourists love to check in, the dazzling array of Chinese-style products such as flower tea, porcelain, paper cutting, etc. are sought after by foreign consumers.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Focusing on non-agricultural data, gold prices fell to two-week lows, and the United States imposed sanctions on Iran to limit the decline in oil prices". It was carefully xmserving.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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